Unemployment up to 8.3% , any predictions of trending

[Anonymous]

Does anyone have any insight from a historical perspective of whether unemployment rates tend to fluctuate or do they trend?

Does the current unemployment trend mirror any past scenarios or election years?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-03/u-s-july-payrolls-rise-more-than-forecast-unemployment-8-3-.html

[Anonymous]

Here is a good unbiased article discussing unemployment rates and the current presidential election while contrasting it with the past.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/08/03/can_obama_overcome_job_numbers_--_and_history_114996.html

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Here is a good unbiased article discussing unemployment rates and the current presidential election while contrasting it with the past.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/08/03/can_obama_overcome_job_numbers_--_and_history_114996.html

Nothing on RCP is unbiased. It's all about bias.

[jsteele]

In June, the unemployment rate was 8.217%. In July, the unemployment rate was 8.254%. That is an increase of 0.037%. It is amazing what a difference rounding makes.

[Anonymous]

jsteele wrote:In June, the unemployment rate was 8.217%. In July, the unemployment rate was 8.254%. That is an increase of 0.037%. It is amazing what a difference rounding makes.

That's very interesting. Can you provide some links to those numbers. Whenever you read about unemployment they never give you the exact percentages. It doesn't make sense for the media to over report the changes if in fact it is a mere .037% If the changes are really that small you could say these are just statistical anomalies or such small changes that it doesn't really mean unemployment is ticking up (or down).

[Anonymous]

Also the unemployment rate is affected by how many people are looking for work-- as the economy picks up more people get encouraged to look for work and that can increase the unemployment rate.

[jsteele]

Anoymous wrote:
Can you provide some links to those numbers.

The numbers came from White House advisor Alan Kruger as reported by CBS White House correspondent Mark Knoller:

https://twitter.com/markknoller/status/231399796777312256

Here is a good article on how both sides are spinning the data:

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/03/in-july-jobs-report-something-for-everyone/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:In June, the unemployment rate was 8.217%. In July, the unemployment rate was 8.254%. That is an increase of 0.037%. It is amazing what a difference rounding makes.

That's very interesting. Can you provide some links to those numbers. Whenever you read about unemployment they never give you the exact percentages. It doesn't make sense for the media to over report the changes if in fact it is a mere .037% If the changes are really that small you could say these are just statistical anomalies or such small changes that it doesn't really mean unemployment is ticking up (or down).

They don't give you exact percentages because unemployment can't be measured with that level of exactness. And therefore small fluctuations in a rate cannot be relied upon to predict the future.

I would say that the Fed's reluctance to get aggressive suggests this is not much of a development.

[Anonymous]

Job creation graphs.

http://reasonableconversation.blogspot.com/2012/01/obama-vs-bush-on-job-creation.html