How much will Biden lose by?

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:I'm a Democratic pollster. Been analyzing polls for the DNC for 7 years now. TBH, we're all worried. Very worried. We know that our polls underreport Trump voters and independents who lean R. Biden's low approval numbers aren't budging and we have no f'ing clue why not. For a while, we thought it was a messaging problem but his numbers just aren't moving as we approach the general.

LOL. If only pollsters would read the polls that show the vast majority of Dems support a ceasefire as of two months ago, so probably higher now. They even broke out Jewish Dems and Muslim Dems and both by a far majority favor a ceasefire.

There was another poll that showed more than 60% of voters do not like the way Biden is handling the conflict.

But, sure carry on with the head scratching.

+100. The entire Democratic establishment is ignoring the glaring issue that the Israel/Gaza issue is important to a lot of people. I am a NYS voter, a moderate Democrat (i.e., not a progressive) and have voted straight ticket D my entire life. Protecting reproductive rights is my most important voting issue. Demographically I’m someone Biden is probably taking for granted (Asian female professional, in the 29-35 age range).

And yet I will be withholding my vote for Biden over Gaza. Obviously I understand that Trump is worse on this issue and every other issue, but my intention in doing this is to cut into his margins in NY to make the point to the Democratic Party that they’ll lose voters over this and that they need to take a more nuanced position on Israel. What we are doing now is disgusting.

How do you feel about LGBTQ issues?

I’m the PP. I’m supportive of the LGBTQ community and am aligned with the general position of the party on upholding their human rights along with everyone else’s. I think people should use whatever bathroom they want. I am personally kind of skeptical about transgender women competing in women’s sports, and I think that some advocates for inclusive language go too far (“pregnant people”, for example), but that kind of stuff is not material to my vote.

OK PP. Now how does Israel approach those rights vs. Gaza and Hamas?

Oh, I see what you’re doing here. Clever. Unfortunately Israel has been committing a 6-month campaign of indiscriminate bombing (i.e., war crimes) against civilians, and actively withholding humanitarian aid, including food, water, and medicine, from said civilians, and murdering foreign aid workers who try to help said civilians, so they’re not winning any human rights awards anytime soon. Maybe try a better argument.

After they were attacked on October 7th. What do you think we did to the Japanese after Pearl Harbor, and rightfully so?

You’re not going to convince me and I’m not going to convince you. It’s my view that the way Israel has prosecuted this “war” over the past months is morally and legally criminal. I don’t think the ends justify the means, which are bombing and starving children as a basic matter of strategy. I don’t want the US to be providing military aid and political cover to a country that does that. Obviously this is embedded in the political establishment in both parties, for now, and as a Democrat I want my party to change its position. Voting for Biden isn’t going to do that, so I’m not going to vote for him. Unfortunately an individual vote in NY isn’t much leverage, but it’s all I’ve got. I hope others who feel similarly will do the same.

You’re right. Your choice to not vote for Biden does nothing to move your concerns forward.

Yeah, that’s your view, and you’re probably correct with respect to this iteration of the Gaza conflict. In the long term, I want more candidates in Democratic primaries who take a more reasonable position on “supporting Israel”, and the only way to message to the party that the demand exists is by cutting into Biden’s margins among blue voters. Like the uncommitted votes in the primaries in Michigan and a few other states. And I believe the success of those campaigns did get the Biden campaign’s attention, just not enough.

If the GOP wins, you won’t get to vote again.

Save our Democracy(TM)!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm a Democratic pollster. Been analyzing polls for the DNC for 7 years now. TBH, we're all worried. Very worried. We know that our polls underreport Trump voters and independents who lean R. Biden's low approval numbers aren't budging and we have no f'ing clue why not. For a while, we thought it was a messaging problem but his numbers just aren't moving as we approach the general.

LOL. If only pollsters would read the polls that show the vast majority of Dems support a ceasefire as of two months ago, so probably higher now. They even broke out Jewish Dems and Muslim Dems and both by a far majority favor a ceasefire.

There was another poll that showed more than 60% of voters do not like the way Biden is handling the conflict.

But, sure carry on with the head scratching.

+100. The entire Democratic establishment is ignoring the glaring issue that the Israel/Gaza issue is important to a lot of people. I am a NYS voter, a moderate Democrat (i.e., not a progressive) and have voted straight ticket D my entire life. Protecting reproductive rights is my most important voting issue. Demographically I’m someone Biden is probably taking for granted (Asian female professional, in the 29-35 age range).

And yet I will be withholding my vote for Biden over Gaza. Obviously I understand that Trump is worse on this issue and every other issue, but my intention in doing this is to cut into his margins in NY to make the point to the Democratic Party that they’ll lose voters over this and that they need to take a more nuanced position on Israel. What we are doing now is disgusting.

How do you feel about LGBTQ issues?

I’m the PP. I’m supportive of the LGBTQ community and am aligned with the general position of the party on upholding their human rights along with everyone else’s. I think people should use whatever bathroom they want. I am personally kind of skeptical about transgender women competing in women’s sports, and I think that some advocates for inclusive language go too far (“pregnant people”, for example), but that kind of stuff is not material to my vote.

OK PP. Now how does Israel approach those rights vs. Gaza and Hamas?

Oh, I see what you’re doing here. Clever. Unfortunately Israel has been committing a 6-month campaign of indiscriminate bombing (i.e., war crimes) against civilians, and actively withholding humanitarian aid, including food, water, and medicine, from said civilians, and murdering foreign aid workers who try to help said civilians, so they’re not winning any human rights awards anytime soon. Maybe try a better argument.

After they were attacked on October 7th. What do you think we did to the Japanese after Pearl Harbor, and rightfully so?

You’re not going to convince me and I’m not going to convince you. It’s my view that the way Israel has prosecuted this “war” over the past months is morally and legally criminal. I don’t think the ends justify the means, which are bombing and starving children as a basic matter of strategy. I don’t want the US to be providing military aid and political cover to a country that does that. Obviously this is embedded in the political establishment in both parties, for now, and as a Democrat I want my party to change its position. Voting for Biden isn’t going to do that, so I’m not going to vote for him. Unfortunately an individual vote in NY isn’t much leverage, but it’s all I’ve got. I hope others who feel similarly will do the same.

You’re right. Your choice to not vote for Biden does nothing to move your concerns forward.

Yeah, that’s your view, and you’re probably correct with respect to this iteration of the Gaza conflict. In the long term, I want more candidates in Democratic primaries who take a more reasonable position on “supporting Israel”, and the only way to message to the party that the demand exists is by cutting into Biden’s margins among blue voters. Like the uncommitted votes in the primaries in Michigan and a few other states. And I believe the success of those campaigns did get the Biden campaign’s attention, just not enough.

If the GOP wins, you won’t get to vote again.

Yeah, how many times have we heard that? Every election years since forever.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm a Democratic pollster. Been analyzing polls for the DNC for 7 years now. TBH, we're all worried. Very worried. We know that our polls underreport Trump voters and independents who lean R. Biden's low approval numbers aren't budging and we have no f'ing clue why not. For a while, we thought it was a messaging problem but his numbers just aren't moving as we approach the general.

LOL. If only pollsters would read the polls that show the vast majority of Dems support a ceasefire as of two months ago, so probably higher now. They even broke out Jewish Dems and Muslim Dems and both by a far majority favor a ceasefire.

There was another poll that showed more than 60% of voters do not like the way Biden is handling the conflict.

But, sure carry on with the head scratching.

+100. The entire Democratic establishment is ignoring the glaring issue that the Israel/Gaza issue is important to a lot of people. I am a NYS voter, a moderate Democrat (i.e., not a progressive) and have voted straight ticket D my entire life. Protecting reproductive rights is my most important voting issue. Demographically I’m someone Biden is probably taking for granted (Asian female professional, in the 29-35 age range).

And yet I will be withholding my vote for Biden over Gaza. Obviously I understand that Trump is worse on this issue and every other issue, but my intention in doing this is to cut into his margins in NY to make the point to the Democratic Party that they’ll lose voters over this and that they need to take a more nuanced position on Israel. What we are doing now is disgusting.

How do you feel about LGBTQ issues?

I’m the PP. I’m supportive of the LGBTQ community and am aligned with the general position of the party on upholding their human rights along with everyone else’s. I think people should use whatever bathroom they want. I am personally kind of skeptical about transgender women competing in women’s sports, and I think that some advocates for inclusive language go too far (“pregnant people”, for example), but that kind of stuff is not material to my vote.

OK PP. Now how does Israel approach those rights vs. Gaza and Hamas?

Oh, I see what you’re doing here. Clever. Unfortunately Israel has been committing a 6-month campaign of indiscriminate bombing (i.e., war crimes) against civilians, and actively withholding humanitarian aid, including food, water, and medicine, from said civilians, and murdering foreign aid workers who try to help said civilians, so they’re not winning any human rights awards anytime soon. Maybe try a better argument.

After they were attacked on October 7th. What do you think we did to the Japanese after Pearl Harbor, and rightfully so?

You’re not going to convince me and I’m not going to convince you. It’s my view that the way Israel has prosecuted this “war” over the past months is morally and legally criminal. I don’t think the ends justify the means, which are bombing and starving children as a basic matter of strategy. I don’t want the US to be providing military aid and political cover to a country that does that. Obviously this is embedded in the political establishment in both parties, for now, and as a Democrat I want my party to change its position. Voting for Biden isn’t going to do that, so I’m not going to vote for him. Unfortunately an individual vote in NY isn’t much leverage, but it’s all I’ve got. I hope others who feel similarly will do the same.

You’re right. Your choice to not vote for Biden does nothing to move your concerns forward.

Yeah, that’s your view, and you’re probably correct with respect to this iteration of the Gaza conflict. In the long term, I want more candidates in Democratic primaries who take a more reasonable position on “supporting Israel”, and the only way to message to the party that the demand exists is by cutting into Biden’s margins among blue voters. Like the uncommitted votes in the primaries in Michigan and a few other states. And I believe the success of those campaigns did get the Biden campaign’s attention, just not enough.

If the GOP wins, you won’t get to vote again.

Yeah, how many times have we heard that? Every election years since forever.

+1

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If you decide who an American president should be based on their foreign policy over their domestic policy then you have lost the plot. Are you more emotionally connected to what is happening overseas than to what is happening in your town? Are you using your time, money and talents to influence what is happening "over there?" Why?

Please, if you feel comfortable, please tell us why? If your answer has anything to do with "right and wrong" then help us understand why "right and wrong" overseas has more of your attention than "right and wrong" here.

People just have different views than you as to what is important. And frankly, condescending statements that people who disagree with you on priorities have “lost the plot” isn’t helpful if you’re trying to convince them to come over to your side. Democrats have a bad tendency to do this with swing voters and also with voters in the party who disagree with them.

I’m the PP who is refusing to vote for Biden this year over Gaza. I take your point to some extent. I’ve never sat an election out; I spent two hours in line at 7 AM to vote for Biden in Philadelphia in 2020. Until now I’ve been a single issue voter on reproductive rights. I’m a lawyer, I know the importance of the Supreme Court. I hate Trump as much as anyone. I think a Trump presidency would be very damaging.

But Biden’s (and basically the whole party’s, except progressives who are generally to the left of me) reaction to Israel’s behavior in this conflict has been really eye opening. Our government is essentially bought and paid for by the Israel lobby. And it’s not just foreign policy, it’s spilled into the effective suppression of free speech on this issue within the US itself. I find that to be really alarming, and voting (by not voting) against that has become an urgent issue to me. Enough that I’m willing to cut against everything I said above to make the point.

NP. The problem the Democrats have is that there are a large number of voters like PP in their base. Meanwhile there are a large number of moderates in swing states who are angry with Biden over things like gutting Title IX protections for girls. (I still have no idea why Biden has handed Republicans such an effective mechanism for dismantling the electoral advantage Democrats had over Republicans with abortion in swing states in an election year. What a foolish decision.)

So, a group of people who would always vote Democrat like PP are sitting this out. Meanwhile a group of people who are swing state voters who would have been a lock-in for Biden over abortion rights (suburban moderates) are questioning whether Biden actually supports their daughters at all because of the Title IX changes. I know the DCUM echo chamber will immediately scream about how much more important abortion rights are, but outside the bubble, a perception that the Democrats are as bad for people’s daughters as the Republicans are will make voters either cross over or stay home in critical swing state districts.

I don’t really know how the Democrats will bridge this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My guess is Trump will win 283-255.

Don't care. I want Biden out.

[Anonymous]

I don’t see anything Biden can do to turn the tide in his favor.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don’t see anything Biden can do to turn the tide in his favor.

I don’t know either. I think it would be one thing if he decided that he was just going to accept that he was angering the crazy progressive wing of the party. Fine, nobody else likes those nutcases anyhow. But he has also decided to anger the moderates. As an election strategy I do not understand what he is doing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t see anything Biden can do to turn the tide in his favor.

I don’t know either. I think it would be one thing if he decided that he was just going to accept that he was angering the crazy progressive wing of the party. Fine, nobody else likes those nutcases anyhow. But he has also decided to anger the moderates. As an election strategy I do not understand what he is doing.

It is not strategy. It shows he is weak. He doesn't know how to take a stand and stay with it. He puts his finger in the air, sees which way the wind is blowing, and responds accordingly.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t see anything Biden can do to turn the tide in his favor.

I don’t know either. I think it would be one thing if he decided that he was just going to accept that he was angering the crazy progressive wing of the party. Fine, nobody else likes those nutcases anyhow. But he has also decided to anger the moderates. As an election strategy I do not understand what he is doing.

In trying to appease both factions of his party, he now has everyone against him.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t see anything Biden can do to turn the tide in his favor.

I don’t know either. I think it would be one thing if he decided that he was just going to accept that he was angering the crazy progressive wing of the party. Fine, nobody else likes those nutcases anyhow. But he has also decided to anger the moderates. As an election strategy I do not understand what he is doing.

Also, attacking Trump as a "threat to democracy" isn't resonating as much as it did in 2020. Even democrats are looking at what's going on, as well as at the economy, and are shaking their heads.

It's not a problem with messaging. It's a problem with policy. Biden could fix things with a stroke of a pen, but he's running out of time.

Then again, perhaps that's the plan. Focus on taking back the House, holding onto the Senate, and neuter Trump during his 2nd term so that a democrat can run in 2028 and get 2 full terms.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don’t see anything Biden can do to turn the tide in his favor.

I think all the pundits, politicians and pollsters who said “Biden will be fine, look who he’s running against” are going to be very surprised after the election. Even though he’s only four years older than Trump, everyone can see he seems much older than his age. And there’s nothing you can do about that. Yes, it matters. He should have been more strongly encouraged to step aside.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t see anything Biden can do to turn the tide in his favor.

I think all the pundits, politicians and pollsters who said “Biden will be fine, look who he’s running against” are going to be very surprised after the election. Even though he’s only four years older than Trump, everyone can see he seems much older than his age. And there’s nothing you can do about that. Yes, it matters. He should have been more strongly encouraged to step aside.

I totally agree. Apparently this week a decision was made to have staffers walk alongside him as he exited Marine One helicopter. The hope was to minimize his awkward gait on the grass. Unfortunately, this only brings more attention to the fact that now he can’t walk alone. It’s obvious his team is trying to minimize how he is being viewed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don’t see anything Biden can do to turn the tide in his favor.

China gate for starters. There is plenty that can be done in the couple months to shift public opinion.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t see anything Biden can do to turn the tide in his favor.

China gate for starters. There is plenty that can be done in the couple months to shift public opinion.

What is “China gate”?

[Anonymous]

I don't understand the whole argument that Biden's support of Israel will be his downfall? Under the Trump presidency the money and weapons sales continued unabated. It has been US policy for decades. Why do you think people will be upset at Biden for not cutting the strings but not mind that Trump didn't cut the strings? Seems like wishful thinking from RNC strategists to me.