Disconnect between official job data and people's experience on the job market?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Could it be that the job market report also does not include many soon-to-be former federal workers? Those who took the DRP are still technically employed through September 30. And many others are still on administrative leave due to RIF-related litigation.

True but people expecting layoffs don't take out mortages. Yet housing data for the DMV looks better than the rest of the country (look at Case Shiller Index for January-May).

I know a ton of federal workers and people whose jobs rely on federal funding. It feels like it has been a bloodbath because for the federal workers at least, they have been in their jobs for a long time and didn't have a reason (prior to this most recent election) to expect mass lay offs. So it is shocking that my friends at USAID and their contractors have been laid off and that my friends at State are expecting layoffs. It also sucks that other organizations that rely on federal funding have had layoffs as well, though for those individuals it is not the first time.

And many of my federal worker friends haven't been laid off and don't expect to be (based on factors specific to their jobs).

There might be a massive economic downturn in the DMV, I don't know. But I do think it's possible there won't be. I think right now the pain is isolated to a minority of federal workers (about 10% based on a higher end estimate of 280,000 layoffs https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/26/politics/federal-layoffs-trump-musk-dg ) who have been laid off in a very public, cruel and intentionally traumatizing way. There are still hundreds of thousands of federal jobs in the DMV.

[Anonymous]

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/01/jobs-report-july-2025.html

[Anonymous]

How can the bureau be off by 1400%? As said before they are cooking the books. Liars.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think if you’re in the non-profit/government fields, it’s not good. Basically anything touching federal money that isn’t defense or homeland security. But a lot of industries are doing fine.

As someone who works in the above field, I’m surrounded by people struggling. But then I talk to my extended family members who are electricians, construction project managers, physician specialists, etc. and they feel little insecurity right now.

I'm surprised. Those professions need clients, and the pool of people who have money available to hire them is shrinking. They also have to deal with the same rising prices all of us do. Construction, especially, I would expect to have a lot of difficulty with pricing in their supply chain.

[Anonymous]

July data is showing weakening.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There is a saying that a recession is when your neighbor loses their job, and a depression is when you lose your job.

Evaluation of the job market is similar. If you are personally having trouble finding work it is hard to understand that the overall job market might not be terrible.

This is a terrific and easy-to-understand explanation. Success or failure of the current job market is relative depending on who you ask and where they are.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There is a saying that a recession is when your neighbor loses their job, and a depression is when you lose your job.

Evaluation of the job market is similar. If you are personally having trouble finding work it is hard to understand that the overall job market might not be terrible.

This is a terrific and easy-to-understand explanation. Success or failure of the current job market is relative depending on who you ask and where they are.

Only if people are too stupid to look at the actual data to understand the broader picture which I guess is probably a lot of people.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think if you’re in the non-profit/government fields, it’s not good. Basically anything touching federal money that isn’t defense or homeland security. But a lot of industries are doing fine.

As someone who works in the above field, I’m surrounded by people struggling. But then I talk to my extended family members who are electricians, construction project managers, physician specialists, etc. and they feel little insecurity right now.

I'm surprised. Those professions need clients, and the pool of people who have money available to hire them is shrinking. They also have to deal with the same rising prices all of us do. Construction, especially, I would expect to have a lot of difficulty with pricing in their supply chain.

Yep, new construction is slowing a lot. Even if these folks aren’t hurting now, they will be in a couple months when they finish their current projects.

[Anonymous]

I am a manager in IT, and I received over 3800 resumes for an IT position five days after posting the job. That's just insane.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I am a manager in IT, and I received over 3800 resumes for an IT position five days after posting the job. That's just insane.

Serious question…how many are North Koreans or Chinese applying or AI bots that just spam the inbox?

Put another way, what % do you think are real people in the US?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I am a manager in IT, and I received over 3800 resumes for an IT position five days after posting the job. That's just insane.

Honestly, we should just have people apply in person at this point. Then you only get serious candidates.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I am a manager in IT, and I received over 3800 resumes for an IT position five days after posting the job. That's just insane.

Honestly, we should just have people apply in person at this point. Then you only get serious candidates.

That would get pretty expensive and time consuming. I recently got a fully remote position and had applied to several others. I couldn’t have flown all over the US to apply in person.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There is a saying that a recession is when your neighbor loses their job, and a depression is when you lose your job.

Evaluation of the job market is similar. If you are personally having trouble finding work it is hard to understand that the overall job market might not be terrible.

This is a terrific and easy-to-understand explanation. Success or failure of the current job market is relative depending on who you ask and where they are.

Only if people are too stupid to look at the actual data to understand the broader picture which I guess is probably a lot of people.

99% of people’s perception of “the economy” is vibes based.

[Anonymous]

I would imagine that the disconnect between the perceptions and the numbers are about:
1) different jobs are available from what job seekers want
2) unhappy people (job seekers finding it difficult) talk more than happy people (job seekers not finding it difficult
3) regional mismatch in job availability v jib seekers
4) still some delay in jobs reports for job loses related to federal govt and tariffs

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I am a manager in IT, and I received over 3800 resumes for an IT position five days after posting the job. That's just insane.

+1 I make hiring decisions for a small tech consulting firm and we're getting people that we never could have hired before. Our pay scale is not impressive (we used to hire first year graduates and lose them predictably at the one year mark when they had something on their resume and could jump ship for more money) but now we're getting very qualified applicants who wouldn't have even accepted an interview with us two or three years ago.

I also don't think "hospitality" is doing well as an upthread PP opined. Have you seen the videos of Vegas - it's a ghost town, and this is during vacation season. US tourism is being absolutely decimated.