Overcrowding and lack of space in Ward 3 Schools
![[Post New]](/jforum/templates/default/images/icon_minipost_new.gif){kind=icon}
Anonymous
You cannot use Oyster, Deal, or Wilson in your numbers as those are ward 3 only schools. |
Anonymous
| Also Adams is specifically ward 1 as far as physical location. |
Anonymous
Different poster, not previously involved in the argument (which I frankly am not following too closely), with a question for the person who posted this info from Cheh's office: What is your understanding of what these percentages represent? In other words, what's the numerator and what's the denominator? 1. Do you think they show the percentage of students living in Ward 3 who at each school? In that case, for example for Deal, the numerator would be Ward 3 students at Deal, and the denominator would be total Deal-eligible students in Ward 3. 2. Do you think they show the percentage of Deal students who live in Ward 3? In that case, for example for Deal, the numerator would be students at Deal who currently live in Ward 3, and the denominator would be total number of students at Deal. 3. [Something else?] Looking at these percentages, I don't see how they can square with the other percentages linked in this thread. But maybe if you clarify what you think they represent, we can work together to see if they make sense. |
Anonymous
No true Scotsman would say that. |
Anonymous
#2. I think I've said that about five times. I don't know of any publicly available source where you can get the numerator, or even estimate it. |
Anonymous
Then how can you make the statement you do without knowing? Weird. |
Anonymous
Of course you can. The question is about kids who live in Ward 3 and go to public schools located in Ward 3, which is something a Ward 3 Commissioner would track (the question posed isn't about IB/OOB - that is a different statistic altogether, which is already provided by DCPS on the profile page - sometimes accurately). As for O/A, DCPS profiles include O-A when you search for Ward 3 only. If that is wrong, then DCPS has to fix it. |
Anonymous
Why is this statistic bothering you so much? |
Anonymous
I do know. Because I had the numbers that were given to me by the Councilmember's office. Which I have shared with you. Go ahead and call the numbers made-up, call me a fraud, I don't care. What gets annoying is when you question the story that the numbers tell. |
Anonymous
| Perhaps Mary Cheh is the liar. Why would that not be surprising? |
Anonymous
|
Here's a site where you can see some numbers that give an idea of makeup of schools:
http://edu.codefordc.org/#!/school/463 It's not perfect. It's organized by cluster, which don't break on ward lines. And it doesn't show numbers under 10. But it shows the big numbers. |
Anonymous
You're not getting it. Mary's numbers don't tell you numerator and demoninator so the numbers you're quoting aren't fully vetted. |
Anonymous
|
I'm 15:55. Thanks PP for the explanation. With that in hand, I'm going to sort through the data we have to see if things make sense. Just as a test, I'll focus on Key Elementary, because it's entirely within Ward 3, so that will keep things cleaner.
1. According to your data from Cheh, Key ES is 93% Ward 3 students. 2. Key's 2016-17 enrollment is 386. http://profiles.dcps.dc.gov/pdf/272_ES_16-17.pdf 3. Key's enrollment in 2015-16 was also 386. https://goo.gl/Un9DF7 4. Key has 359 students living in Ward 3, and 27 not living in Ward 3. (93% of 386 = 359) 5. The 27 not living in Ward 3 are OOB students. 6. In theory, some of the 358 Ward 3 students might also be OOB for Key, even if they're living in Ward 3. 7. Key's IB enrollment is 83%. https://goo.gl/Un9DF7 8. 320 of Key's students live IB for Key. (83% of 386 = 320) 9. 66 of Key's students are OOB. (386-320=66) 10. 39 Key students live in Ward 3, but are OOB for Key. (66-27=39) 11. Key's IB participation rate is 91%. https://goo.gl/Un9DF7 12. There are 352 public school students living IB for Key. (91% of 352 = 320) 13. In 2014-15, when the school boundaries were being revised, DCPS predicted that the new Key boundary would have 310 IB public school students. https://goo.gl/e5UDbd 14. In 2014-15, DCPS predicted some small growth, which likely accounts for the increase from 310 to 320 IB public school students. 15. Key's building capacity is 320 students. https://goo.gl/e5UDbd 16. Key is even more overcapacity now than it was before the boundaries shrank. https://goo.gl/e5UDbd 17. Without the OOB students (whether Ward 3 or not), Key would be right at building capacity. (Items 8 & 15) I'm guessing a lot of the 39 students who are in Ward 3 but OOB for Key are ones who were previously within Key's boundary, but we pushed to OOB status when the boundaries changed. I'm not sure what to make of the 27 non-Ward 3 OOB students. It would be interesting to do this same exercise with each of the schools, to see whether the boundary changes had the expected impact or made any improvements. |
Anonymous
Even if you had numerator and denominator you would have to take them on faith. Either I'm lying, Mary Cheh is lying, DCPS is lying to Cheh, or the numbers are accurate. If numerator and denominator are that important, look up the enrollments on the DCPS website -- that's your denominator. Multiply by the percentage. Presto! Numerator and denominator. |
Anonymous
And the DME's website lists the "programmatic capacity" of Key as 408 even though the "building capacity" is 320. Which is why this year's enrollment is closer to 415 (profiles haven't been updated yet.) |