Capitol Hill State of the Market?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I just clicked on 10 random Hill homes for sale on the Redfin map. All of them either had been on the market for 30+ days, had their asking prices cut or both. It's grim out there, and there's a good amount of inventory.

They listed at a horrible time…I don’t understand why anyone would list between thanksgiving and mid-February.

[Anonymous]

The only people buying houses in this comparatively high-interest market are the very wealthy and people who are being forced to move (job relocation, divorce, etc.). The size of the buyer pool is tiny compared with recent years. Combine that with interest rates that show no signs of coming down anytime soon and a bad time of the year to sell, and you have all these Hill houses sitting, many with significant price cuts.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The only people buying houses in this comparatively high-interest market are the very wealthy and people who are being forced to move (job relocation, divorce, etc.). The size of the buyer pool is tiny compared with recent years. Combine that with interest rates that show no signs of coming down anytime soon and a bad time of the year to sell, and you have all these Hill houses sitting, many with significant price cuts.

This has surprised me, since so much of the Hill is young families who outgrow their space. The house you bought in 2018 with kid #1 doesn't really fit baby #3. I would have expected that forcing function would have kept more movement on the Hill

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The only people buying houses in this comparatively high-interest market are the very wealthy and people who are being forced to move (job relocation, divorce, etc.). The size of the buyer pool is tiny compared with recent years. Combine that with interest rates that show no signs of coming down anytime soon and a bad time of the year to sell, and you have all these Hill houses sitting, many with significant price cuts.

This has surprised me, since so much of the Hill is young families who outgrow their space. The house you bought in 2018 with kid #1 doesn't really fit baby #3. I would have expected that forcing function would have kept more movement on the Hill

just wait a month. Especially with RTO.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Any rumblings of what the 2025 market might look like on the Hill? So far, the market seems to be softer -- at least two decent 3BRs for under 1.5m

1) https://www.redfin.com/DC/Washington/325-Constitution-Ave-NE-20002/home/9893725

Damn for $1.4 million and over 2,000 sq feet that kitchen is tight. Looks like the kitchen out of an old 1BR apartment, not a house priced this high.

That house is literally right next to the Senate side, Supreme Court and Union Station. It will do just fine.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I would not want to live on Constitution Ave - brutal traffic morning and evening

I live right off Constitution and it’s really not that bad. Some traffic during the AM and PM rush hour.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I would not want to live on Constitution Ave - brutal traffic morning and evening

I live right off Constitution and it’s really not that bad. Some traffic during the AM and PM rush hour.

Agree. It isn't that bad. Morning is traffic heavy for an hour or so. PM is less so. Most of the day, the street is not particularly busy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I would not want to live on Constitution Ave - brutal traffic morning and evening

I live right off Constitution and it’s really not that bad. Some traffic during the AM and PM rush hour.

Agree. It isn't that bad. Morning is traffic heavy for an hour or so. PM is less so. Most of the day, the street is not particularly busy.

The house at 3rd and Constitution will be more busy feeling but I think you buy a house there because you want to be there. For a house that close to the literal capitol and a metro, it actually seemed underpriced compared to other global capital cities or even in comparison to NYC and SF.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The only people buying houses in this comparatively high-interest market are the very wealthy and people who are being forced to move (job relocation, divorce, etc.). The size of the buyer pool is tiny compared with recent years. Combine that with interest rates that show no signs of coming down anytime soon and a bad time of the year to sell, and you have all these Hill houses sitting, many with significant price cuts.

This has surprised me, since so much of the Hill is young families who outgrow their space. The house you bought in 2018 with kid #1 doesn't really fit baby #3. I would have expected that forcing function would have kept more movement on the Hill

That forcing function -- people needing to move from the Hill because their rowhouse is too small, or because of dissatisfaction with DCPS schools on the Hill, or because of crime, or all of those things combined -- doesn't really work when moving means tripling your interest rate, and it doesn't really work in a softening market, as we're seeing now. Previously, it was quite easy to unload your Hill rowhouse for a sizable profit after only a few years and decamp to CCDC or MoCo or Arlington. Now many people are stuck because their homes aren't selling and/or they wouldn't be able to afford anything new.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I just clicked on 10 random Hill homes for sale on the Redfin map. All of them either had been on the market for 30+ days, had their asking prices cut or both. It's grim out there, and there's a good amount of inventory.

There are almost always a few houses on the market that are overpriced. Try searching for houses that have sold in the last 3 months on Capitol Hill - 90 houses in my search between $800k and $4M. Seems like the facts tell a different story

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just clicked on 10 random Hill homes for sale on the Redfin map. All of them either had been on the market for 30+ days, had their asking prices cut or both. It's grim out there, and there's a good amount of inventory.

There are almost always a few houses on the market that are overpriced. Try searching for houses that have sold in the last 3 months on Capitol Hill - 90 houses in my search between $800k and $4M. Seems like the facts tell a different story

time of year really matters too. I had my eye on a house a few blocks away because it is very similar to mine. It was priced well and nicely renovated. It was listed around Thanksgiving and sat around until March when it was sold. There was one price reduction but in this strange market, I don’t really think that indicates all that much. and the price reduction happened in the fall anyway.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just clicked on 10 random Hill homes for sale on the Redfin map. All of them either had been on the market for 30+ days, had their asking prices cut or both. It's grim out there, and there's a good amount of inventory.

There are almost always a few houses on the market that are overpriced. Try searching for houses that have sold in the last 3 months on Capitol Hill - 90 houses in my search between $800k and $4M. Seems like the facts tell a different story

I agree that the Capitol Hill market right now is more complex. Low inventory but buyers might be uncertain. Interest rates not sure to be going up or down. RTO could be a factor. Spring market will be interesting!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just clicked on 10 random Hill homes for sale on the Redfin map. All of them either had been on the market for 30+ days, had their asking prices cut or both. It's grim out there, and there's a good amount of inventory.

There are almost always a few houses on the market that are overpriced. Try searching for houses that have sold in the last 3 months on Capitol Hill - 90 houses in my search between $800k and $4M. Seems like the facts tell a different story

A couple of years ago it would have been at least triple that number.

[Anonymous]

Isn't brent elementary shutting down for the next 2-3 years to renovate? I imagine that's going to impact those zoned listings.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Isn't brent elementary shutting down for the next 2-3 years to renovate? I imagine that's going to impact those zoned listings.

I think that kind of stuff has less impact than you think.