What do the numbers look like if you are 100% equity? Seems like a no brainer if you want a decent withdrawal rate over 50 or 60 years. |
DP, but in running the calculators, and even having had them run professionally, the sweet spot is 60/40 or 50/50 once you've retired. Enough growth combined with some safety to get you through down swings. That said, higher allocation of equities gives you a greater chance of ending w a higher balance but that is offset by a greater chance of ending with a lower balance. It's really dependent on your starting balance and your expenses. High balance and low proportional expenses gives the investor greater flexibility. |
Also, here is the calculator I like: firecalc.com. Others prefer cFireism.com I like that firecalc has a lot of knobs and dials to adjust. |
Social security will almost certainly be there, but benefits will likely be cut. If you want to be conservative assume your benefits are going to be reduced by at least 25% and assume that total benefits will be caped at an inflation adjusted $2,000 per month. This 29 year old brother will not be social security at all if he does not have 10 years of work history and assuming he does not get married. |
What is your 90 years old Dad spending 5K per month on? The median American income is 5K per month GROSS. Do you think half of Americans are living under bridges or something? |
Being generous food for a single old man is not going to be more than about $500 per month. Let’s say utilities are also 500. Are you trying to tell us he spends almost 50K per year on property taxes, home insurance, and home “maintenance”? Because it sounds like the “maintenance” is more likely to be “upgrades” with those numbers… |
The median individual income is only $39k per year...which is $3,250/month gross. Yeah, if a 90-year old doesn't have to pay for healthcare (assume prescription drugs are also nearly 100% covered?), doesn't travel, has a paid-off home, doesn't eat out, doesn't buy clothes..assume doesn't pay for an in-home nurse/aide...I don't know what he is spending $5k per month on either. Food at home and utilities don't add up to that. I hope to God he isn't driving around, though suppose could still own a car and be paying insurance. |
Give extra to a dud? |
Average end result is higher, but failure rate is also higher and happens sooner. It would be a no-brainer if you just vowed to work during the years when equities are down instead of withdrawing. |
Your parents liked your brother better. |
The brother got a house in addition to 1.5MM. OP just got 1.5MM. They knew brother would never amount to anything. |
Sounds like it. Crazy way of thinking. |
The brother can't be that bad if the parents gave him more. |
It really depends on the state. I have a sibling who lives in California and has figured out that they get more not working. Free health care, food stamps, etc. What state does your sibling live in? |
I think this whole discussion is moot anyway. The margin would definitely be tight long term. But even if it were feasible, there's no way someone who just announces they're quitting working at 29 has the self-discipline to pull it off. It'll be gone in single digit years. |