Which schools will continue to be the most sought after in the next decade? Which ones will hit a downward trajectory?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Well, yes, a child visiting someone she knows will indeed have a different experience. But in general, these campuses have become dreary and dead.

I would submit that the reason kids visit students they know is to get a real look at the school, beyond the generic walk around the campus, what they heard from their next door neighbor's cousin's boyfriend, & the admissions office pitch. We've visited all the Ivy League schools in the last 1.5 years and UPenn is the only one that I would describe as "dreary and dead." I think it's funny a few people are trying to tear down the Ivy reputations. They are and will continue to be highly sought after. Yale recently had to institute a pre-screening process to address the increase in apps and I won't be surprised if other schools follow. I agree with a PP that B1G 10 schools are currently very popular - NU and MI have been popular for decades, but WI, MN, IN, Purdue, and OSU are also top choices.

Oh, the Ivies will still be highly sought after. But that doesn’t mean that the environment on campus isn’t grim.

There is a reason Yale has come under so much recent criticism for how it handles mental health issues and why so many students there have have mental health struggles. Elite? Yes. But decidedly grim, dreary, and unfriendly.

I think this is largely true. You have to recall that the New England Ivies were absolutely awful during COVID. Miserable places. No 18 year old wanted any part of that. Every day seems like a purity test up there.

For the standout schools, Duke, Vanderbilt, Rice, Northwestern, MIT, and Stanford will become the desirable schools - much more than Harvard and Yale and the other dour NE schools.

Public Honors programs will become ever more popular. There aren't a lot of families that can drop $400,000 per child on college. There's a number when it gets ridiculous, and we've reached that. A lot of talent is going to stay in-state. People seem to want a rah-rah go college experience. And they want good STEM. UIUC, Indiana, Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin - are all going to do fine. So will the SEC schools. They've been very smart with offering good merit.

Small LACs in unpleasant areas in Ohio or Pennsylvania or New England are going to have a hard time. The Ivies will always be desirable. But the quality of their students is going to continue to go down.

I agree the quality of student at ivies will continue to go down, but it may remain quite popular among foreign students from some countries and those who will go into established family businesses. It will be mostly extremely wealthy people can afford any risks with the name or well funded people who fit criteria to get scholarships.

[Anonymous]

Generally agree but not much change

1. T20ish/T25ish schools will do fine

2. Next tier private schools in good locations like NYU, USC, Northeastern will continue to rise.
(USC and NYU are already like T25ish schools)

3. Not all but many state flagships will do fine

4. Top 5 or so SLACs will do fine

no brainer

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Well, yes, a child visiting someone she knows will indeed have a different experience. But in general, these campuses have become dreary and dead.

I would submit that the reason kids visit students they know is to get a real look at the school, beyond the generic walk around the campus, what they heard from their next door neighbor's cousin's boyfriend, & the admissions office pitch. We've visited all the Ivy League schools in the last 1.5 years and UPenn is the only one that I would describe as "dreary and dead." I think it's funny a few people are trying to tear down the Ivy reputations. They are and will continue to be highly sought after. Yale recently had to institute a pre-screening process to address the increase in apps and I won't be surprised if other schools follow. I agree with a PP that B1G 10 schools are currently very popular - NU and MI have been popular for decades, but WI, MN, IN, Purdue, and OSU are also top choices.

Oh, the Ivies will still be highly sought after. But that doesn’t mean that the environment on campus isn’t grim.

There is a reason Yale has come under so much recent criticism for how it handles mental health issues and why so many students there have have mental health struggles. Elite? Yes. But decidedly grim, dreary, and unfriendly.

I think this is largely true. You have to recall that the New England Ivies were absolutely awful during COVID. Miserable places. No 18 year old wanted any part of that. Every day seems like a purity test up there.

For the standout schools, Duke, Vanderbilt, Rice, Northwestern, MIT, and Stanford will become the desirable schools - much more than Harvard and Yale and the other dour NE schools.

Public Honors programs will become ever more popular. There aren't a lot of families that can drop $400,000 per child on college. There's a number when it gets ridiculous, and we've reached that. A lot of talent is going to stay in-state. People seem to want a rah-rah go college experience. And they want good STEM. UIUC, Indiana, Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin - are all going to do fine. So will the SEC schools. They've been very smart with offering good merit.

Small LACs in unpleasant areas in Ohio or Pennsylvania or New England are going to have a hard time. The Ivies will always be desirable. But the quality of their students is going to continue to go down.

I agree the quality of student at ivies will continue to go down, but it may remain quite popular among foreign students from some countries and those who will go into established family businesses. It will be mostly extremely wealthy people can afford any risks with the name or well funded people who fit criteria to get scholarships.

What objective evidence do you base the bolded on?

Because my husband and I interview for two ivies, and the calibre of student has only been going up. We joke that neither one of us could get in today like we did 20+ years ago.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Generally agree but not much change

1. T20ish/T25ish schools will do fine

2. Next tier private schools in good locations like NYU, USC, Northeastern will continue to rise.
(USC and NYU are already like T25ish schools)

3. Not all but many state flagships will do fine

4. Top 5 or so SLACs will do fine

no brainer

Agree. The Ivies are going nowhere. The world's population is only increasing. By inertia the top colleges retain being the top colleges . State flagships in states that invest money in higher education will do well. So UVA will be even more elite. West Virginia, not so much. The non-ivy privates that are selective today will only be more selective in the future. The Ivies aren't growing their enrollment so these indistinguishably stellar students have to go somewhere. Johns Hopkins, Georgetown, Vanderbilt, Duke, UChicago, etc. The next tier down will get the students pushed out of these types of schools...NYU, NEU, Tulane, Emory, UMiami, Wake Forest This is pretty much what has happened over the past twenty years anyways.

I was reading here about Pitt, and what a good value proposition that it was as a "safety". It isn't that large of a school, but that type of school can either vault up or trend down depending on how "prestigious" it is perceived. UMD is in a much better position, maybe because of its computer science department.

The SLACs who are on top will stay on top. There are just so many spaces in these schools. The lower tier small privates I think are going to suffer because of the humanity focus. But who knows.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Well, yes, a child visiting someone she knows will indeed have a different experience. But in general, these campuses have become dreary and dead.

I would submit that the reason kids visit students they know is to get a real look at the school, beyond the generic walk around the campus, what they heard from their next door neighbor's cousin's boyfriend, & the admissions office pitch. We've visited all the Ivy League schools in the last 1.5 years and UPenn is the only one that I would describe as "dreary and dead." I think it's funny a few people are trying to tear down the Ivy reputations. They are and will continue to be highly sought after. Yale recently had to institute a pre-screening process to address the increase in apps and I won't be surprised if other schools follow. I agree with a PP that B1G 10 schools are currently very popular - NU and MI have been popular for decades, but WI, MN, IN, Purdue, and OSU are also top choices.

Oh, the Ivies will still be highly sought after. But that doesn’t mean that the environment on campus isn’t grim.

There is a reason Yale has come under so much recent criticism for how it handles mental health issues and why so many students there have have mental health struggles. Elite? Yes. But decidedly grim, dreary, and unfriendly.

I think this is largely true. You have to recall that the New England Ivies were absolutely awful during COVID. Miserable places. No 18 year old wanted any part of that. Every day seems like a purity test up there.

For the standout schools, Duke, Vanderbilt, Rice, Northwestern, MIT, and Stanford will become the desirable schools - much more than Harvard and Yale and the other dour NE schools.

Public Honors programs will become ever more popular. There aren't a lot of families that can drop $400,000 per child on college. There's a number when it gets ridiculous, and we've reached that. A lot of talent is going to stay in-state. People seem to want a rah-rah go college experience. And they want good STEM. UIUC, Indiana, Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin - are all going to do fine. So will the SEC schools. They've been very smart with offering good merit.

Small LACs in unpleasant areas in Ohio or Pennsylvania or New England are going to have a hard time. The Ivies will always be desirable. But the quality of their students is going to continue to go down.

I agree the quality of student at ivies will continue to go down, but it may remain quite popular among foreign students from some countries and those who will go into established family businesses. It will be mostly extremely wealthy people can afford any risks with the name or well funded people who fit criteria to get scholarships.

What objective evidence do you base the bolded on?

Because my husband and I interview for two ivies, and the calibre of student has only been going up. We joke that neither one of us could get in today like we did 20+ years ago.

why does everyone say they "joke" about this. It's just a fact. You wouldnt have. Me either.

[Anonymous]

Except those 1500 SATs would’ve been more like 1380s 25 years ago. And GPAs? Please.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Well, yes, a child visiting someone she knows will indeed have a different experience. But in general, these campuses have become dreary and dead.

I would submit that the reason kids visit students they know is to get a real look at the school, beyond the generic walk around the campus, what they heard from their next door neighbor's cousin's boyfriend, & the admissions office pitch. We've visited all the Ivy League schools in the last 1.5 years and UPenn is the only one that I would describe as "dreary and dead." I think it's funny a few people are trying to tear down the Ivy reputations. They are and will continue to be highly sought after. Yale recently had to institute a pre-screening process to address the increase in apps and I won't be surprised if other schools follow. I agree with a PP that B1G 10 schools are currently very popular - NU and MI have been popular for decades, but WI, MN, IN, Purdue, and OSU are also top choices.

Oh, the Ivies will still be highly sought after. But that doesn’t mean that the environment on campus isn’t grim.

There is a reason Yale has come under so much recent criticism for how it handles mental health issues and why so many students there have have mental health struggles. Elite? Yes. But decidedly grim, dreary, and unfriendly.

I think this is largely true. You have to recall that the New England Ivies were absolutely awful during COVID. Miserable places. No 18 year old wanted any part of that. Every day seems like a purity test up there.

For the standout schools, Duke, Vanderbilt, Rice, Northwestern, MIT, and Stanford will become the desirable schools - much more than Harvard and Yale and the other dour NE schools.

Public Honors programs will become ever more popular. There aren't a lot of families that can drop $400,000 per child on college. There's a number when it gets ridiculous, and we've reached that. A lot of talent is going to stay in-state. People seem to want a rah-rah go college experience. And they want good STEM. UIUC, Indiana, Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin - are all going to do fine. So will the SEC schools. They've been very smart with offering good merit.

Small LACs in unpleasant areas in Ohio or Pennsylvania or New England are going to have a hard time. The Ivies will always be desirable. But the quality of their students is going to continue to go down.

I agree the quality of student at ivies will continue to go down, but it may remain quite popular among foreign students from some countries and those who will go into established family businesses. It will be mostly extremely wealthy people can afford any risks with the name or well funded people who fit criteria to get scholarships.

What objective evidence do you base the bolded on?

Because my husband and I interview for two ivies, and the calibre of student has only been going up. We joke that neither one of us could get in today like we did 20+ years ago.

The problem is not all those interview are not getting admitted. DD and her friends have high SAT and GPA and reasonable EC but wasn't admitted while lower academic score students from their HH are admitted.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:In general I think there will be a push to schools perceived as fun but with good educational rigor. The northeast schools will drop because they are perceived as grim grinds filled with backstabbing, unfriendly people. Political moderation will be appealing. I think this generation of kids, who suffered through covid, has little patience for schools where, fair or not, there is a perception of tolerance of drama queens and waste of education. This will also go with an increasing demand for good ROI.

Excessive drama, misery, and petulance is headed out, solid education, fun, and good ROI is in.

So kids weren't interested in schools that were fun before recently? And plenty of drama and backstabbing in the Southern sorority scene.

They were, but schools in the northeast used to be a lot more fun because there was more personality variety in who they attracted. They used to attract the population that made campuses come alive: the quirky geniuses, the smart frat and sorority kids, the theater kids who had the time in HS to really perfect their craft, etc. But those kids often don’t have the mid-career project management skills that getting perfect GPAs in a test-minimizing environment along with the requisite resume-polishing now requires. So these schools are instead filled with grim armies of Tracy Flicks who don’t understand what “fun” even means.

Have you been on the campus of some of these schools recently? What’s remarkable is how silent they are. It’s like walking through a library, but outside. It’s outright depressing and for some bright kids, that’s not going to be appealing no matter how shiny the name is.

I’ve visited nearly 100 colleges in the last decade. You are so right. Students walking to class at Williams were like zombies (and not in a GOOD way). Students at Michigan, Baylor, & Kansas State looked like they couldn’t imagine being anywhere else.

Since you brought up Kansas State, I was wondering if you could compare it to Univ of Kansas in terms of culture, student body, campus, and surrounding town. If you’re familiar! Thanks

As in many states, the “University of xxxx” is considered a notch up from the “xxxx State University.” Both Kansas schools have a distinct attractive architecture that is fairly uncommon for the Midwest, & which I thought looked different than in photos.

Kansas is supposed to have more students from out of state, & that gives them a more liberal tilt.

KSU seems to have more businesses & restaurants adjacent to the campus. Kansas kind of reminded me of Wake Forest in that you’re driving along a normal street, & bang—there’s the campus. But the downtown area is lively.

The reason these two schools (along with Nebraska, Oklahoma, Ok State, Iowa State, & Iowa) are of particular note is that they are true safeties for many people, with acceptance rates in the 80-95% range. But they are still fun, well organized, and respectable academically. I know this combination of characteristics doesn’t compute for most Northeasterners (I went to undergrad in Boston, so I know about prestige whoredom) but that’s why they are still safeties.

Most offer significant automatic merit aid that can bring the met price way down. Also generous with AP credits. One of my kids went to one of the schools mentioned here, got an excellent education (business) had a very good time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Except those 1500 SATs would’ve been more like 1380s 25 years ago. And GPAs? Please.

Exactly. I think people sell themselves short. Plus back in the day, kids were not micromanaged like hot house flowers by their parents.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Any college in the depressing Rust Belt. There are too many better or equal options in growing regions with good weather and scenic surroundings.

You keep saying that yet Big 10 universities in the so-called Rust Belt are enjoying a surge in applications. Lots of kids don't want to go south for different reasons and can get the big school, big time sports, fun party experience in the Big 10.

+1 Many of these midwestern schools are on fire: Purdue, Chicago, U Mich, U Illinois, Indiana, Northwestern, etc. The small LACs in tiny towns in the Midwest, ok, I agree that many are struggling. But that is true almost anywhere. More of the college-bound population is being raised in urban areas, and they don’t want to live in the sticks at college.

+1 The flagships and highly rated private schools (say, <= 50 on US News) are generally doing well. It's the regional privates and directional state Us (e.g., Eastern Illinois, Indiana University at Kokomo, Ferris State and what have you) that I'd be very leery of.

I totally disagree. More and more bright kids from MC and UMC homes are attending these schools because they give great merit scholarships. I’ve been surprised by the “seller” schools that have been turned down in favor of these lesser known schools.

Interesting. Where do you live? I'm in MoCo (kids in public, HS classes of '15, '19, '21, and '23) and I have seen a shift to state flagship/state flagship equivalents (both in-state and out-of-state), probably or possibly due to costs, but I'm hard pressed to think of any kids going to somewhere like IU Kokomo or University of Wisconsin at Oshkosh (i.e., out of state/out of region directionals). So they'll go to IU in Bloomington or Purdue, but not Purdue Northwest or IU Fort Wayne. U of South Carolina/Clemson? Yes. Increasingly very popular. USC Aiken or USC Upstate? Not so much.

PP- what about the non-state flagships in MD? When we toured UMBC and Towson more than half of our (admittedly small) tour group was from out of state. Kids coming from Penn, NJ, Europe and Texas on our tours.

Per Common Data Set:
This fall 94% of first year students at UMBC were from MD. That's compared to 95% in fall 2021, 93% in fall 2019, 91% in fall 2017, 93% in fall 2013, and 91% in fall 2011.

In fall 2022, 90% of first years at Towson were from MD. That's compared to 89% in fall 2021, 83% in fall 2019, 82% in fall 2018, 75% in fall 2015, 75% in fall 2013, and 72% in fall 2010.

So UMBC seems to be holding pretty steady in terms of instate vs oos over the years (maybe a slight shift towards more instate). Towson has had a very steep decline in OOS.

[Anonymous]

Arizona, southern flagships

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Except those 1500 SATs would’ve been more like 1380s 25 years ago. And GPAs? Please.

Exactly. I think people sell themselves short. Plus back in the day, kids were not micromanaged like hot house flowers by their parents.

The internet happened. In my day, in small town Illinois, nobody applied to an Ivy League school. Not in 100 years. They went to ISU or U of I or some of the small regional privates. Kids who wanted something really different went to Iowa. Notre Dame was our Harvard.

Now that same school has the top 20% of the class applies to all these schools and some get in. Multiply that be 10000s of high schools across the world.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Except those 1500 SATs would’ve been more like 1380s 25 years ago. And GPAs? Please.

Exactly. I think people sell themselves short. Plus back in the day, kids were not micromanaged like hot house flowers by their parents.

The internet happened. In my day, in small town Illinois, nobody applied to an Ivy League school. Not in 100 years. They went to ISU or U of I or some of the small regional privates. Kids who wanted something really different went to Iowa. Notre Dame was our Harvard.

Now that same school has the top 20% of the class applies to all these schools and some get in. Multiply that be 10000s of high schools across the world.

This x100.

The sheer number of international applicants from Asian countries in and of itself makes schools like NYU, BU, NEU, USC hypercompetitive. In 2000, GWU's acceptance rate was 80%. USC's acceptance rate 25 years ago was almost 70%.

One thing that I read was if a prospective student wanted to apply to a school he would have to write or call up the school to get an application. Now with the common app, and applying to 20 schools at a time, the system has been made "too easy" to apply.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Except those 1500 SATs would’ve been more like 1380s 25 years ago. And GPAs? Please.

Exactly. I think people sell themselves short. Plus back in the day, kids were not micromanaged like hot house flowers by their parents.

The internet happened. In my day, in small town Illinois, nobody applied to an Ivy League school. Not in 100 years. They went to ISU or U of I or some of the small regional privates. Kids who wanted something really different went to Iowa. Notre Dame was our Harvard.

Now that same school has the top 20% of the class applies to all these schools and some get in. Multiply that be 10000s of high schools across the world.

Interesting. I'm in an affluent suburb of Chicago, and there are some kids applying to Ivies, but certainly NOT 20% of the class. Iowa, U of I, Indiana, Wisconsin, etc. still rule.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Well, yes, a child visiting someone she knows will indeed have a different experience. But in general, these campuses have become dreary and dead.

I would submit that the reason kids visit students they know is to get a real look at the school, beyond the generic walk around the campus, what they heard from their next door neighbor's cousin's boyfriend, & the admissions office pitch. We've visited all the Ivy League schools in the last 1.5 years and UPenn is the only one that I would describe as "dreary and dead." I think it's funny a few people are trying to tear down the Ivy reputations. They are and will continue to be highly sought after. Yale recently had to institute a pre-screening process to address the increase in apps and I won't be surprised if other schools follow. I agree with a PP that B1G 10 schools are currently very popular - NU and MI have been popular for decades, but WI, MN, IN, Purdue, and OSU are also top choices.

Oh, the Ivies will still be highly sought after. But that doesn’t mean that the environment on campus isn’t grim.

There is a reason Yale has come under so much recent criticism for how it handles mental health issues and why so many students there have have mental health struggles. Elite? Yes. But decidedly grim, dreary, and unfriendly.

I think this is largely true. You have to recall that the New England Ivies were absolutely awful during COVID. Miserable places. No 18 year old wanted any part of that. Every day seems like a purity test up there.

For the standout schools, Duke, Vanderbilt, Rice, Northwestern, MIT, and Stanford will become the desirable schools - much more than Harvard and Yale and the other dour NE schools.

Public Honors programs will become ever more popular. There aren't a lot of families that can drop $400,000 per child on college. There's a number when it gets ridiculous, and we've reached that. A lot of talent is going to stay in-state. People seem to want a rah-rah go college experience. And they want good STEM. UIUC, Indiana, Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin - are all going to do fine. So will the SEC schools. They've been very smart with offering good merit.

Small LACs in unpleasant areas in Ohio or Pennsylvania or New England are going to have a hard time. The Ivies will always be desirable. But the quality of their students is going to continue to go down.

I agree the quality of student at ivies will continue to go down, but it may remain quite popular among foreign students from some countries and those who will go into established family businesses. It will be mostly extremely wealthy people can afford any risks with the name or well funded people who fit criteria to get scholarships.

What objective evidence do you base the bolded on?

Because my husband and I interview for two ivies, and the calibre of student has only been going up. We joke that neither one of us could get in today like we did 20+ years ago.

Do you watch the news? They couldn't be that bright if they were so easily radicalized.