DC govt confirms city's population shrank in 2020 for second consecutive year

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This data suggests that the stated premise for the Bowser Administration’s aggressive upFLUMimg of DC neighborhoods and other recent Comp Plan changes was false and misleading.

The population shrank for two years, including the pandemic year, therefore the population will never grow?

The trend we're seeing is a very different story than the one told by the mayor.

Surprise! People testified at the Council that they needed to re-validate the flawed assumptions that Bowser and get planning office were using to push the Comprehensive Plan changes, but Bowser just rushed it through. Look at some of the SEC filings and other public investor statements from JBG and other big developers, to see what they really believe about trends.

[Anonymous]

This is a longer term trend that it appears. Before the population starting shrinking in 2019, the annual growth rate had been slowing down dramatically for at least five years. The days of DC growing rapidly are long behind us.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This data suggests that the stated premise for the Bowser Administration’s aggressive upFLUMimg of DC neighborhoods and other recent Comp Plan changes was false and misleading.

The population shrank for two years, including the pandemic year, therefore the population will never grow?

The trend we're seeing is a very different story than the one told by the mayor.

The "trend" you're seeing is two years, of which one was a very, very unusual year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This data suggests that the stated premise for the Bowser Administration’s aggressive upFLUMimg of DC neighborhoods and other recent Comp Plan changes was false and misleading.

The population shrank for two years, including the pandemic year, therefore the population will never grow?

The trend we're seeing is a very different story than the one told by the mayor.

The "trend" you're seeing is two years, of which one was a very, very unusual year.

Not true. D.C. grew very quickly from 2010 to about 2014 or 2015. After that, the growth rate slowed every single year until 2019 when it went negative and even more negative in 2020. The long term trajectory is clear here. It's not upward.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People leave when their kids aren't allowed to go to school.

The largest recipients of those people are in neighboring area like Bethesda, where schools were also closed.

People don't like "density". They want space and value for money.

Then why are tiny places in the city far more expensive than larger houses in the surrounding suburbs?

What people seem to want are single family houses in the District and close-in suburbs, not necessarily lots more high-end little glass box flats above national fast-casual chains and other mixed-use.

Again, what "people want" is not all the same. Lots of people want small condos that are close to bars, restaurants, and their offices. The DC condo market slowed during the pandemic, but 1-2 bedroom condos in highly desirable areas are still going for $400-$600k.

Maybe you don't want that, and that's fine. But it's the reality of what people are willing to pay. If they weren't desirable, the prices would adjust accordingly.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People leave when their kids aren't allowed to go to school.

The largest recipients of those people are in neighboring area like Bethesda, where schools were also closed.

People don't like "density". They want space and value for money.

Then why are tiny places in the city far more expensive than larger houses in the surrounding suburbs?

What people seem to want are single family houses in the District and close-in suburbs, not necessarily lots more high-end little glass box flats above national fast-casual chains and other mixed-use.

Again, what "people want" is not all the same. Lots of people want small condos that are close to bars, restaurants, and their offices. The DC condo market slowed during the pandemic, but 1-2 bedroom condos in highly desirable areas are still going for $400-$600k.

Maybe you don't want that, and that's fine. But it's the reality of what people are willing to pay. If they weren't desirable, the prices would adjust accordingly.

What are the “highly desirable” areas where people are willing to pay such prices for small condos?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This data suggests that the stated premise for the Bowser Administration’s aggressive upFLUMimg of DC neighborhoods and other recent Comp Plan changes was false and misleading.

The population shrank for two years, including the pandemic year, therefore the population will never grow?

The trend we're seeing is a very different story than the one told by the mayor.

The "trend" you're seeing is two years, of which one was a very, very unusual year.

Not true. D.C. grew very quickly from 2010 to about 2014 or 2015. After that, the growth rate slowed every single year until 2019 when it went negative and even more negative in 2020. The long term trajectory is clear here. It's not upward.

Hard to say that's clearly the long-term trajectory. Would it have gone even more negative in 2020 if not for the pandemic? No way to know other than to see what happens in 2021.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People leave when their kids aren't allowed to go to school.

The largest recipients of those people are in neighboring area like Bethesda, where schools were also closed.

Why would Bethesda be a net recipient of people moving out of DC?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People leave when their kids aren't allowed to go to school.

The largest recipients of those people are in neighboring area like Bethesda, where schools were also closed.

Why would Bethesda be a net recipient of people moving out of DC?

It’s hedging. You get the advantages of more space and better schools but aren’t too far out if/when workers are asked to return to downtown offices in significant numbers.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This data suggests that the stated premise for the Bowser Administration’s aggressive upFLUMimg of DC neighborhoods and other recent Comp Plan changes was false and misleading.

The population shrank for two years, including the pandemic year, therefore the population will never grow?

The trend we're seeing is a very different story than the one told by the mayor.

The "trend" you're seeing is two years, of which one was a very, very unusual year.

Not true. D.C. grew very quickly from 2010 to about 2014 or 2015. After that, the growth rate slowed every single year until 2019 when it went negative and even more negative in 2020. The long term trajectory is clear here. It's not upward.

Hard to say that's clearly the long-term trajectory. Would it have gone even more negative in 2020 if not for the pandemic? No way to know other than to see what happens in 2021.

You can speculate or you can just look at the data. The future is never certain, but most people would make a one-way bet when presented with a chart like this and knowing that it actually goes should be revised to be negative in 2020.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People leave when their kids aren't allowed to go to school.

The largest recipients of those people are in neighboring area like Bethesda, where schools were also closed.

Why would Bethesda be a net recipient of people moving out of DC?

It’s hedging. You get the advantages of more space and better schools but aren’t too far out if/when workers are asked to return to downtown offices in significant numbers.

It’s speculation. The hottest housing market in the region right now is McLean/Great Falls.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People leave when their kids aren't allowed to go to school.

The largest recipients of those people are in neighboring area like Bethesda, where schools were also closed.

Why would Bethesda be a net recipient of people moving out of DC?

It’s hedging. You get the advantages of more space and better schools but aren’t too far out if/when workers are asked to return to downtown offices in significant numbers.

It’s speculation. The hottest housing market in the region right now is McLean/Great Falls.

The report states that only 5,000 additional moves were within the region, which includes MD and VA. I would guess that the impact on Bethesda would be negligible.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:People leave when their kids aren't allowed to go to school.

This is us. Plus this absurd notion that crime is ok because the criminals are having a hard time. Bye.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People leave when their kids aren't allowed to go to school.

This is us. Plus this absurd notion that crime is ok because the criminals are having a hard time. Bye.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People leave when their kids aren't allowed to go to school.

This is us. Plus this absurd notion that crime is ok because the criminals are having a hard time. Bye.

For us it was the increasing crime and homeless population.