Is angst about PK3 mostly from families who want to stay in DC long term?

[Anonymous]

It's FOMO

[Anonymous]

Most parents, including myself, had angst in terms of the lottery because of the longterm pathway issue. Now, there are more parents looking to stay in DC and luckily some schools are improving but not at a rate where it doesn't feel like a f-ed up rat race.

[Anonymous]

My angst was partly present quality, partly FOMO, partly desire to keep us with our friends, partly desire for good logistics, partly generalized anxiety, and partly feeder pattern.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The angst comes from the lottery itself. Many of these parents aren't used to having to rely on luck for what they want. They either have earned a place where they want to be, or they've been able to throw money at it. Now they are faced with the real possibility of having to send their babies to Appletree while their neighbors have celebratory playdates and talk about how awesome it's going to be at Brent or Mundo Verde.

THIS. The lottery really made me face how often in life I've been able to control situations with enough research, advocacy, money, connections, etc. It does a great job of what it was designed to do -- even the playing field. There are many people who believe in a more even playing field, who choose to live in DC and engage in the lottery to support it, but still struggle personally. I think the path through high school is also a consideration for families who aren't happy with their IB options but couldn't afford private.

Have thought a lot about this and agreed 100%. There is a certain type of family in DC, where both parents likely have advanced through life's ladders, gotten masters degrees, solid jobs, etc, and together make in the $200-300k range. Used to be, that type of family could afford a place west of Rock Creek, maybe with a little help from family for the down payment. Not anymore. Used to be, you might be able to afford private school for your kids if you were in the upper range of that income level. Not anymore. There are probably tens of thousands of these types of families in DC- not lobbyist level paychecks, but solid and enough to afford a $700-900K house. Now these types of people are living east of Rock Creek, and private schools have gotten too expensive to be possible.

Now, after jumping through hoops, getting into good colleges/grad schools, getting good jobs, earning enough to afford a nice house (maybe in a reasonably sketchy neighborhood?), they are simply not where their predecessor cohort was, because of how expensive property has become in DC. Move out to the suburbs for schools? Maybe, but man, hellish commute every day, tons of time in the car, probably can't walk anywhere (Arlington/Bethesda now out of reach for people in this cohort now). Lot to give up. So now it all becomes (unconsciously mostly) invested in the lottery. This can "save" you, but like said above, can't pay for it. Can't write a great essay and get a good internship for it. Just up to randomness.

Not a dig on these people at all- am one of them myself! Just trying to explicate some of it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The angst comes from the lottery itself. Many of these parents aren't used to having to rely on luck for what they want. They either have earned a place where they want to be, or they've been able to throw money at it. Now they are faced with the real possibility of having to send their babies to Appletree while their neighbors have celebratory playdates and talk about how awesome it's going to be at Brent or Mundo Verde.

THIS. The lottery really made me face how often in life I've been able to control situations with enough research, advocacy, money, connections, etc. It does a great job of what it was designed to do -- even the playing field. There are many people who believe in a more even playing field, who choose to live in DC and engage in the lottery to support it, but still struggle personally. I think the path through high school is also a consideration for families who aren't happy with their IB options but couldn't afford private.

Have thought a lot about this and agreed 100%. There is a certain type of family in DC, where both parents likely have advanced through life's ladders, gotten masters degrees, solid jobs, etc, and together make in the $200-300k range. Used to be, that type of family could afford a place west of Rock Creek, maybe with a little help from family for the down payment. Not anymore. Used to be, you might be able to afford private school for your kids if you were in the upper range of that income level. Not anymore. There are probably tens of thousands of these types of families in DC- not lobbyist level paychecks, but solid and enough to afford a $700-900K house. Now these types of people are living east of Rock Creek, and private schools have gotten too expensive to be possible.

Now, after jumping through hoops, getting into good colleges/grad schools, getting good jobs, earning enough to afford a nice house (maybe in a reasonably sketchy neighborhood?), they are simply not where their predecessor cohort was, because of how expensive property has become in DC. Move out to the suburbs for schools? Maybe, but man, hellish commute every day, tons of time in the car, probably can't walk anywhere (Arlington/Bethesda now out of reach for people in this cohort now). Lot to give up. So now it all becomes (unconsciously mostly) invested in the lottery. This can "save" you, but like said above, can't pay for it. Can't write a great essay and get a good internship for it. Just up to randomness.

Not a dig on these people at all- am one of them myself! Just trying to explicate some of it.

I am in this cohort and don't think Arlington is out of reach. There was plenty in our price range but we like Bloomingdale.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The angst comes from the lottery itself. Many of these parents aren't used to having to rely on luck for what they want. They either have earned a place where they want to be, or they've been able to throw money at it. Now they are faced with the real possibility of having to send their babies to Appletree while their neighbors have celebratory playdates and talk about how awesome it's going to be at Brent or Mundo Verde.

THIS. The lottery really made me face how often in life I've been able to control situations with enough research, advocacy, money, connections, etc. It does a great job of what it was designed to do -- even the playing field. There are many people who believe in a more even playing field, who choose to live in DC and engage in the lottery to support it, but still struggle personally. I think the path through high school is also a consideration for families who aren't happy with their IB options but couldn't afford private.

Have thought a lot about this and agreed 100%. There is a certain type of family in DC, where both parents likely have advanced through life's ladders, gotten masters degrees, solid jobs, etc, and together make in the $200-300k range. Used to be, that type of family could afford a place west of Rock Creek, maybe with a little help from family for the down payment. Not anymore. Used to be, you might be able to afford private school for your kids if you were in the upper range of that income level. Not anymore. There are probably tens of thousands of these types of families in DC- not lobbyist level paychecks, but solid and enough to afford a $700-900K house. Now these types of people are living east of Rock Creek, and private schools have gotten too expensive to be possible.

Now, after jumping through hoops, getting into good colleges/grad schools, getting good jobs, earning enough to afford a nice house (maybe in a reasonably sketchy neighborhood?), they are simply not where their predecessor cohort was, because of how expensive property has become in DC. Move out to the suburbs for schools? Maybe, but man, hellish commute every day, tons of time in the car, probably can't walk anywhere (Arlington/Bethesda now out of reach for people in this cohort now). Lot to give up. So now it all becomes (unconsciously mostly) invested in the lottery. This can "save" you, but like said above, can't pay for it. Can't write a great essay and get a good internship for it. Just up to randomness.

Not a dig on these people at all- am one of them myself! Just trying to explicate some of it.

I am in this cohort and don't think Arlington is out of reach. There was plenty in our price range but we like Bloomingdale.

Historically Bethesda was far more expensive than even most parts of UNW. It is only fairly recently that DC has gotten as or more expensive. So, people in the bracket you described are equally priced out of WOTP and Bethesda, whereas before either might have been options.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The angst comes from the lottery itself. Many of these parents aren't used to having to rely on luck for what they want. They either have earned a place where they want to be, or they've been able to throw money at it. Now they are faced with the real possibility of having to send their babies to Appletree while their neighbors have celebratory playdates and talk about how awesome it's going to be at Brent or Mundo Verde.

THIS. The lottery really made me face how often in life I've been able to control situations with enough research, advocacy, money, connections, etc. It does a great job of what it was designed to do -- even the playing field. There are many people who believe in a more even playing field, who choose to live in DC and engage in the lottery to support it, but still struggle personally. I think the path through high school is also a consideration for families who aren't happy with their IB options but couldn't afford private.

Have thought a lot about this and agreed 100%. There is a certain type of family in DC, where both parents likely have advanced through life's ladders, gotten masters degrees, solid jobs, etc, and together make in the $200-300k range. Used to be, that type of family could afford a place west of Rock Creek, maybe with a little help from family for the down payment. Not anymore. Used to be, you might be able to afford private school for your kids if you were in the upper range of that income level. Not anymore. There are probably tens of thousands of these types of families in DC- not lobbyist level paychecks, but solid and enough to afford a $700-900K house. Now these types of people are living east of Rock Creek, and private schools have gotten too expensive to be possible.

Now, after jumping through hoops, getting into good colleges/grad schools, getting good jobs, earning enough to afford a nice house (maybe in a reasonably sketchy neighborhood?), they are simply not where their predecessor cohort was, because of how expensive property has become in DC. Move out to the suburbs for schools? Maybe, but man, hellish commute every day, tons of time in the car, probably can't walk anywhere (Arlington/Bethesda now out of reach for people in this cohort now). Lot to give up. So now it all becomes (unconsciously mostly) invested in the lottery. This can "save" you, but like said above, can't pay for it. Can't write a great essay and get a good internship for it. Just up to randomness.

Not a dig on these people at all- am one of them myself! Just trying to explicate some of it.

I'd only add to this, there's also the abundance of choice, which I think research has shown can be stressful when there's too much choice. There's a lot of choices, but not really, given the odds at the more sought after schools--all of it together makes the more risk-averse among us decide to pack up and move to the suburbs before facing the lottery, or after multiple lottery rounds with bad luck.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The angst comes from the lottery itself. Many of these parents aren't used to having to rely on luck for what they want. They either have earned a place where they want to be, or they've been able to throw money at it. Now they are faced with the real possibility of having to send their babies to Appletree while their neighbors have celebratory playdates and talk about how awesome it's going to be at Brent or Mundo Verde.

THIS. The lottery really made me face how often in life I've been able to control situations with enough research, advocacy, money, connections, etc. It does a great job of what it was designed to do -- even the playing field. There are many people who believe in a more even playing field, who choose to live in DC and engage in the lottery to support it, but still struggle personally. I think the path through high school is also a consideration for families who aren't happy with their IB options but couldn't afford private.

Have thought a lot about this and agreed 100%. There is a certain type of family in DC, where both parents likely have advanced through life's ladders, gotten masters degrees, solid jobs, etc, and together make in the $200-300k range. Used to be, that type of family could afford a place west of Rock Creek, maybe with a little help from family for the down payment. Not anymore. Used to be, you might be able to afford private school for your kids if you were in the upper range of that income level. Not anymore. There are probably tens of thousands of these types of families in DC- not lobbyist level paychecks, but solid and enough to afford a $700-900K house. Now these types of people are living east of Rock Creek, and private schools have gotten too expensive to be possible.

Now, after jumping through hoops, getting into good colleges/grad schools, getting good jobs, earning enough to afford a nice house (maybe in a reasonably sketchy neighborhood?), they are simply not where their predecessor cohort was, because of how expensive property has become in DC. Move out to the suburbs for schools? Maybe, but man, hellish commute every day, tons of time in the car, probably can't walk anywhere (Arlington/Bethesda now out of reach for people in this cohort now). Lot to give up. So now it all becomes (unconsciously mostly) invested in the lottery. This can "save" you, but like said above, can't pay for it. Can't write a great essay and get a good internship for it. Just up to randomness.

Not a dig on these people at all- am one of them myself! Just trying to explicate some of it.

I'd only add to this, there's also the abundance of choice, which I think research has shown can be stressful when there's too much choice. There's a lot of choices, but not really, given the odds at the more sought after schools--all of it together makes the more risk-averse among us decide to pack up and move to the suburbs before facing the lottery, or after multiple lottery rounds with bad luck.

Also, these types of people tend to do a lot of research and weighing options. They might even do it for a living (ahem, lawyers). It is easy to feel like you have to know everything there is to know about every possible school, then weigh it against the potential to get in. But yes I very much agree with the above post. Even 700k house is out of range for that income bracket if you don't have a lot of savings or family help.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's mostly about long term pathway. In general, 30+ spots are offered at PK3 or PK4, depending on what year is the first that the school offers. After that, the number of available spots per year are in the low single digits (if at all). So if you don't get in early, your odds of getting in somewhere later are significantly smaller via anything other than in-boundary rights.

What? No, no, no. Most PK3 seats go to siblings, so it is a hard year to get in. Many schools expand their class sizes for Pk4 and K, and K is when people move to upper NW or the suburbs. PK3 is the hard year.

Yes yes yes. Look at the numbers. It's highly school dependent, but overall, the largest numbers by far are in PK3 http://enrolldcps.dc.gov/node/61

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's mostly about long term pathway. In general, 30+ spots are offered at PK3 or PK4, depending on what year is the first that the school offers. After that, the number of available spots per year are in the low single digits (if at all). So if you don't get in early, your odds of getting in somewhere later are significantly smaller via anything other than in-boundary rights.

What? No, no, no. Most PK3 seats go to siblings, so it is a hard year to get in. Many schools expand their class sizes for Pk4 and K, and K is when people move to upper NW or the suburbs. PK3 is the hard year.

Yes yes yes. Look at the numbers. It's highly school dependent, but overall, the largest numbers by far are in PK3 http://enrolldcps.dc.gov/node/61

The largest number of seats offered, but so what? Most of them go to siblings. In upper grades there are fewer applicants so chances can be better even if the number of seats is small.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's mostly about long term pathway. In general, 30+ spots are offered at PK3 or PK4, depending on what year is the first that the school offers. After that, the number of available spots per year are in the low single digits (if at all). So if you don't get in early, your odds of getting in somewhere later are significantly smaller via anything other than in-boundary rights.

What? No, no, no. Most PK3 seats go to siblings, so it is a hard year to get in. Many schools expand their class sizes for Pk4 and K, and K is when people move to upper NW or the suburbs. PK3 is the hard year.

Yes yes yes. Look at the numbers. It's highly school dependent, but overall, the largest numbers by far are in PK3 http://enrolldcps.dc.gov/node/61

NP. But the competition is so much less in the upper grades. Look at this link and compare the percent of offers to number on the wait list. There may be fewer spots, but if they go 50% of the way through the wait list versus 10% of the way through you need a much less good lottery draw to get an offer.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/aaron2446#!/vizhome/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData/MSDCPublicDisplay

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The angst comes from the lottery itself. Many of these parents aren't used to having to rely on luck for what they want. They either have earned a place where they want to be, or they've been able to throw money at it. Now they are faced with the real possibility of having to send their babies to Appletree while their neighbors have celebratory playdates and talk about how awesome it's going to be at Brent or Mundo Verde.

THIS. The lottery really made me face how often in life I've been able to control situations with enough research, advocacy, money, connections, etc. It does a great job of what it was designed to do -- even the playing field. There are many people who believe in a more even playing field, who choose to live in DC and engage in the lottery to support it, but still struggle personally. I think the path through high school is also a consideration for families who aren't happy with their IB options but couldn't afford private.

Have thought a lot about this and agreed 100%. There is a certain type of family in DC, where both parents likely have advanced through life's ladders, gotten masters degrees, solid jobs, etc, and together make in the $200-300k range. Used to be, that type of family could afford a place west of Rock Creek, maybe with a little help from family for the down payment. Not anymore. Used to be, you might be able to afford private school for your kids if you were in the upper range of that income level. Not anymore. There are probably tens of thousands of these types of families in DC- not lobbyist level paychecks, but solid and enough to afford a $700-900K house. Now these types of people are living east of Rock Creek, and private schools have gotten too expensive to be possible.

Now, after jumping through hoops, getting into good colleges/grad schools, getting good jobs, earning enough to afford a nice house (maybe in a reasonably sketchy neighborhood?), they are simply not where their predecessor cohort was, because of how expensive property has become in DC. Move out to the suburbs for schools? Maybe, but man, hellish commute every day, tons of time in the car, probably can't walk anywhere (Arlington/Bethesda now out of reach for people in this cohort now). Lot to give up. So now it all becomes (unconsciously mostly) invested in the lottery. This can "save" you, but like said above, can't pay for it. Can't write a great essay and get a good internship for it. Just up to randomness.

Not a dig on these people at all- am one of them myself! Just trying to explicate some of it.

Absolutely agree and this is us as well. When we first started the lottery, we were planning on a second kid and the pressure felt huge. Now that we've stuck with one (not by choice, but that's not relevant), the pressure seems SO much lighter because we can afford private or a smaller house in a nicer neighborhood if the lottery never works out. Plus you see that in Pre-k, everyone is having the same experience whether they're at the fanciest charter, neighborhood EOTP DCPS, or a last choice lottery option. So aside from stressing about the future, you don't feel like you're messing up your kid's present.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The angst comes from the lottery itself. Many of these parents aren't used to having to rely on luck for what they want. They either have earned a place where they want to be, or they've been able to throw money at it. Now they are faced with the real possibility of having to send their babies to Appletree while their neighbors have celebratory playdates and talk about how awesome it's going to be at Brent or Mundo Verde.

THIS. The lottery really made me face how often in life I've been able to control situations with enough research, advocacy, money, connections, etc. It does a great job of what it was designed to do -- even the playing field. There are many people who believe in a more even playing field, who choose to live in DC and engage in the lottery to support it, but still struggle personally. I think the path through high school is also a consideration for families who aren't happy with their IB options but couldn't afford private.

Have thought a lot about this and agreed 100%. There is a certain type of family in DC, where both parents likely have advanced through life's ladders, gotten masters degrees, solid jobs, etc, and together make in the $200-300k range. Used to be, that type of family could afford a place west of Rock Creek, maybe with a little help from family for the down payment. Not anymore. Used to be, you might be able to afford private school for your kids if you were in the upper range of that income level. Not anymore. There are probably tens of thousands of these types of families in DC- not lobbyist level paychecks, but solid and enough to afford a $700-900K house. Now these types of people are living east of Rock Creek, and private schools have gotten too expensive to be possible.

Now, after jumping through hoops, getting into good colleges/grad schools, getting good jobs, earning enough to afford a nice house (maybe in a reasonably sketchy neighborhood?), they are simply not where their predecessor cohort was, because of how expensive property has become in DC. Move out to the suburbs for schools? Maybe, but man, hellish commute every day, tons of time in the car, probably can't walk anywhere (Arlington/Bethesda now out of reach for people in this cohort now). Lot to give up. So now it all becomes (unconsciously mostly) invested in the lottery. This can "save" you, but like said above, can't pay for it. Can't write a great essay and get a good internship for it. Just up to randomness.

Not a dig on these people at all- am one of them myself! Just trying to explicate some of it.

I'd only add to this, there's also the abundance of choice, which I think research has shown can be stressful when there's too much choice. There's a lot of choices, but not really, given the odds at the more sought after schools--all of it together makes the more risk-averse among us decide to pack up and move to the suburbs before facing the lottery, or after multiple lottery rounds with bad luck.

Also, these types of people tend to do a lot of research and weighing options. They might even do it for a living (ahem, lawyers). It is easy to feel like you have to know everything there is to know about every possible school, then weigh it against the potential to get in. But yes I very much agree with the above post. Even 700k house is out of range for that income bracket if you don't have a lot of savings or family help.

I really liked the chance to do the research and choose realistic possibilities. It helped me to figure out what was important for our family.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The angst comes from the lottery itself. Many of these parents aren't used to having to rely on luck for what they want. They either have earned a place where they want to be, or they've been able to throw money at it. Now they are faced with the real possibility of having to send their babies to Appletree while their neighbors have celebratory playdates and talk about how awesome it's going to be at Brent or Mundo Verde.

THIS. The lottery really made me face how often in life I've been able to control situations with enough research, advocacy, money, connections, etc. It does a great job of what it was designed to do -- even the playing field. There are many people who believe in a more even playing field, who choose to live in DC and engage in the lottery to support it, but still struggle personally. I think the path through high school is also a consideration for families who aren't happy with their IB options but couldn't afford private.

Have thought a lot about this and agreed 100%. There is a certain type of family in DC, where both parents likely have advanced through life's ladders, gotten masters degrees, solid jobs, etc, and together make in the $200-300k range. Used to be, that type of family could afford a place west of Rock Creek, maybe with a little help from family for the down payment. Not anymore. Used to be, you might be able to afford private school for your kids if you were in the upper range of that income level. Not anymore. There are probably tens of thousands of these types of families in DC- not lobbyist level paychecks, but solid and enough to afford a $700-900K house. Now these types of people are living east of Rock Creek, and private schools have gotten too expensive to be possible.

Now, after jumping through hoops, getting into good colleges/grad schools, getting good jobs, earning enough to afford a nice house (maybe in a reasonably sketchy neighborhood?), they are simply not where their predecessor cohort was, because of how expensive property has become in DC. Move out to the suburbs for schools? Maybe, but man, hellish commute every day, tons of time in the car, probably can't walk anywhere (Arlington/Bethesda now out of reach for people in this cohort now). Lot to give up. So now it all becomes (unconsciously mostly) invested in the lottery. This can "save" you, but like said above, can't pay for it. Can't write a great essay and get a good internship for it. Just up to randomness.

Not a dig on these people at all- am one of them myself! Just trying to explicate some of it.

Absolutely agree and this is us as well. When we first started the lottery, we were planning on a second kid and the pressure felt huge. Now that we've stuck with one (not by choice, but that's not relevant), the pressure seems SO much lighter because we can afford private or a smaller house in a nicer neighborhood if the lottery never works out. Plus you see that in Pre-k, everyone is having the same experience whether they're at the fanciest charter, neighborhood EOTP DCPS, or a last choice lottery option. So aside from stressing about the future, you don't feel like you're messing up your kid's present.

Sure preK experiences might not be vastly different although I would say there are some differences as in resources, field trips, and parent involvement. IT gets real by 2nd grade. Families bail poorly performing schools to scramble to get a spot at a better school hopefully with a good middle school feeder. That is disruptive for a child to switch schools.

If you are unlucky and don’t get in anywhere in the upper elementary, middle school chances are much, much lower in the lottery. So unless you can afford private, you will have to move if you strike out in the middle school lottery.

[Anonymous]

There is a certain type of family in DC, where both parents likely have advanced through life's ladders, ….make in the $200-300k range. …..There are probably tens of thousands of these types of families in DC- not lobbyist level paychecks, but solid and enough to afford a $700-900K house. Now these types of people are living east of Rock Creek, …. they are simply not where their predecessor cohort was, because of how expensive property has become in DC.

So here is what I don't understand, as an affluent, educated Gen-Xer who's lived in DC since the 90s and has all the things you cite in your [edited] post: why aren't the schools better in your D.C. neighborhood? You're right — there are so. many. of. you 30-somethings now in DC and you are most definitely concentrated in several neighborhoods. Like Petworth, or Brookland. You have the numbers to make Elementary School XYZ decent from K-5th grade. So why isn't it / why the angst over just going to your IB school when Archer turns 5 y.o.?

(for a primer on how that happens over a period of < 10 years see e.g. Brent, Maury, LT, Ross, Hearst. In fact, see Deal MS — a place where _none_ of my ward 3 neighbors sent their kids in the 90s and which now has, what? 2,000 kids and is the do-or-die for most of the city).