Montgomery County Budget $99.8 Million Shortfall

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:WOW

Jeez. Who could have ever predicted this (sarcasm).

I'll say it again for the Nth time. MoCo is completely dysfunctional due to one party politics that has veered too far to the left. The county has rolled out the red carpet for illegal immigrants. Guess what happens? Illegal immigrants come, and they have tons of kids that need seats in schools. Schools burst at the seams and now require more spending to accommodate ESL students who need millions upon millions of dollars worth of remedial education and special English instructors. Their population alone strains school resources; now people demand we build more schools and facilities for more space. And the liberal county govt complies, only that they don't have the money. Gaithersburg now has a backlog of something like $800 million in needed school projects, and MCPS now eat up over 50% of the country's budget last time I checked.

But MoCo is getting hit from all sides - there is a demographic time bomb that's just starting to explode. The number of baby boomers is going to skyrocket out to 2040, while the number of workers in their prime earning years is expected to actually decrease during that period. What that means is even less tax revenue from income for the county while the county will face increasing demands on public services for senior citizens. Also, the county is on the hook for huge pensions liabilities that baby boomers will start to come knocking on the door for to collect who worked for the county. The demographics report released by the county also showed that population growth in MoCo will almost exclusively be driven by 'international' travelers/arrivers (aka illegal immigrants). The #1 country from which people will be arriving is from El Salvador according to the report.

But it gets worse. MoCo has had anemic job growth for the last few years because of brutally hostile anti-business policies, red tape, and taxes. MoCo is currently in NO position at all to grow their way out of their debt problem, because the county isn't creating jobs.

Put it all together and what does it mean? I means that the county will have its credit rating start to crumble if it can't fix its debt problem. If the county's credit rating starts to drop, it means borrowing becomes more expensive, and then you enter a death spiral of ballooning deficits. The only way to combat the credit rating drop is to cut spending, which we all know liberal democrats are incapable of doing, or it means tax increases. There is no doubt in my mind that we should expect significant tax increases across the board for income and property and other fees increased. But the problem is that once you start increasing taxes people will be inspired to leave. MoCo is also now hellbent on social justice warrior initiatives in MCPS that threaten to erode school quality. Once taxes increase and schools continue to get worse, you'll see more people leave and then you start entering a death spiral where you have to keep increasing taxes even more to stop the bleeding from tax losses. It is Baltimore all over again. Property values will follow the downward trajectory as the bleeding turns into hemorrhaging.

Everything is going wrong right now in MoCo. Democrats are to blame.

Landlords definitely see this coming. We see more and more illegal rentals in my neighborhood. Whereas, previous landlords would get the appropriate permits, etc. Now, landlords prefer to rent their units out illegally and accept only cash payments.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:WOW

Jeez. Who could have ever predicted this (sarcasm).

I'll say it again for the Nth time. MoCo is completely dysfunctional due to one party politics that has veered too far to the left. The county has rolled out the red carpet for illegal immigrants. Guess what happens? Illegal immigrants come, and they have tons of kids that need seats in schools. Schools burst at the seams and now require more spending to accommodate ESL students who need millions upon millions of dollars worth of remedial education and special English instructors. Their population alone strains school resources; now people demand we build more schools and facilities for more space. And the liberal county govt complies, only that they don't have the money. Gaithersburg now has a backlog of something like $800 million in needed school projects, and MCPS now eat up over 50% of the country's budget last time I checked.

But MoCo is getting hit from all sides - there is a demographic time bomb that's just starting to explode. The number of baby boomers is going to skyrocket out to 2040, while the number of workers in their prime earning years is expected to actually decrease during that period. What that means is even less tax revenue from income for the county while the county will face increasing demands on public services for senior citizens. Also, the county is on the hook for huge pensions liabilities that baby boomers will start to come knocking on the door for to collect who worked for the county. The demographics report released by the county also showed that population growth in MoCo will almost exclusively be driven by 'international' travelers/arrivers (aka illegal immigrants). The #1 country from which people will be arriving is from El Salvador according to the report.

But it gets worse. MoCo has had anemic job growth for the last few years because of brutally hostile anti-business policies, red tape, and taxes. MoCo is currently in NO position at all to grow their way out of their debt problem, because the county isn't creating jobs.

Put it all together and what does it mean? I means that the county will have its credit rating start to crumble if it can't fix its debt problem. If the county's credit rating starts to drop, it means borrowing becomes more expensive, and then you enter a death spiral of ballooning deficits. The only way to combat the credit rating drop is to cut spending, which we all know liberal democrats are incapable of doing, or it means tax increases. There is no doubt in my mind that we should expect significant tax increases across the board for income and property and other fees increased. But the problem is that once you start increasing taxes people will be inspired to leave. MoCo is also now hellbent on social justice warrior initiatives in MCPS that threaten to erode school quality. Once taxes increase and schools continue to get worse, you'll see more people leave and then you start entering a death spiral where you have to keep increasing taxes even more to stop the bleeding from tax losses. It is Baltimore all over again. Property values will follow the downward trajectory as the bleeding turns into hemorrhaging.

Everything is going wrong right now in MoCo. Democrats are to blame.

This assessment is SPOT ON.

I have no idea how, in such a well-educated county, people don’t see this all come to pass. Are voters simply clueless? Or overly optimistic?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Easy to fix. Take it from MCPS budget. The school system is not doing anything anyway. MoCo waste money left and right

Their hands are tied on that. Level of effort mandates at the state level (how we got there.. different story).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Start properly taxing the country clubs! And yes. I belong and think that it is wrong.

They are taxed at the agricultural rate, for keeping their area green space and not developing it.

[Anonymous]

I am AA and the local support of illegal immigrants in MoCo is ridiculous.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/seven-undocumented-immigrants-emerge-as-sex-assault-suspects-and-pull-montgomery-county-into-national-debate/2019/09/08/674cd9f8-d0e0-11e9-b29b-a528dc82154a_story.html

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
This assessment is SPOT ON.

I have no idea how, in such a well-educated county, people don’t see this all come to pass. Are voters simply clueless? Or overly optimistic?

Because people don't focus on local politics. Go up to 10 random people and ask them to name at least one County Councilmember. I'm sure they can't.

They just blindly vote for whoever has a (D) next to it.

[Anonymous]

Here's the original article from what I can tell:

https://bethesdamagazine.com/bethesda-beat/government/montgomery-county-faces-possible-budget-shortfall/

“Council staff have reiterated — which maybe wasn’t crystal clear in the previous discussion — that the projected FY ’21 revenue growth is zero,” Council Member Hans Riemer said after the briefing. “That is really bad. Council staff said there has never been a budget with such poor revenue growth before when we weren’t also in a recession.”


.....


But the state’s income tax revenues for February — distributed back to counties through a disposition formula — don’t always change things for the better. Last year, revenues went down by 32%, forcing the county to cover a roughly $41 million shortfall.

If this year’s projections are borne out, county agencies would need to reduce their spending by $130.1 million, according to council analysts. Riemer said it would force both the county executive and council to make tough budgetary decisions, especially given an expected rise in compensation costs.

Council members also tied the projections to what they’ve described as an increasingly urgent need to boost economic development in the county.

“This is a clear indication that we have a real problem in the economy,” said Council Member Andrew Friedson. “We’re not attracting enough new workers to Montgomery County. We’re not attracting enough people who want to live here. We need to go into overdrive to figure this out.”

There it is. A complete admission by the County Council itself at what an utter failure economically MoCo has become. The council is right on the point that this is *extremely* worrisome given that the economy is BOOMING right now, yet the county is returning tax receipts and economic numbers like it is a 2008 recession. Just imagine how bad MoCo will be once the economy slows, which will be inevitable at some point. The county's budget deficit will balloon, austerity measures will be needed which means school spending cuts, school quality continues to erode, and home values start to plummet. MoCo is on the way down. Democrats have completely ruined the county.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Here's the original article from what I can tell:

https://bethesdamagazine.com/bethesda-beat/government/montgomery-county-faces-possible-budget-shortfall/

“Council staff have reiterated — which maybe wasn’t crystal clear in the previous discussion — that the projected FY ’21 revenue growth is zero,” Council Member Hans Riemer said after the briefing. “That is really bad. Council staff said there has never been a budget with such poor revenue growth before when we weren’t also in a recession.”


.....


But the state’s income tax revenues for February — distributed back to counties through a disposition formula — don’t always change things for the better. Last year, revenues went down by 32%, forcing the county to cover a roughly $41 million shortfall.

If this year’s projections are borne out, county agencies would need to reduce their spending by $130.1 million, according to council analysts. Riemer said it would force both the county executive and council to make tough budgetary decisions, especially given an expected rise in compensation costs.

Council members also tied the projections to what they’ve described as an increasingly urgent need to boost economic development in the county.

“This is a clear indication that we have a real problem in the economy,” said Council Member Andrew Friedson. “We’re not attracting enough new workers to Montgomery County. We’re not attracting enough people who want to live here. We need to go into overdrive to figure this out.”

There it is. A complete admission by the County Council itself at what an utter failure economically MoCo has become. The council is right on the point that this is *extremely* worrisome given that the economy is BOOMING right now, yet the county is returning tax receipts and economic numbers like it is a 2008 recession. Just imagine how bad MoCo will be once the economy slows, which will be inevitable at some point. The county's budget deficit will balloon, austerity measures will be needed which means school spending cuts, school quality continues to erode, and home values start to plummet. MoCo is on the way down. Democrats have completely ruined the county.

Exactly. This is the status of MoCo in a good economy. What happens when the economy slows down? County leadership is a disaster.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I am AA and the local support of illegal immigrants in MoCo is ridiculous.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/seven-undocumented-immigrants-emerge-as-sex-assault-suspects-and-pull-montgomery-county-into-national-debate/2019/09/08/674cd9f8-d0e0-11e9-b29b-a528dc82154a_story.html

County support for illegal immigration has led to the deterioration of this county. Sure, there are additional factors, but this is a big one. Not PC, and doesn’t fit the progressive agenda of the Democratic leadership, but we are seeing the results. It starts out first affecting only certain neighborhoods, and then spreads to where it affects the entire county (as we are seeing with the boundary change discussion in MCPS).

I’m not AA, but I’m also not White, but I think race has nothing to do with this anyway. Anyone who is here legally (immigrant or native born) should be outraged by the County Democratic leadership’s lush to embrace illegal immigrants and encourage more illegal immigration.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Start properly taxing the country clubs! And yes. I belong and think that it is wrong.

Are Country Clubs not taxed?

No. County clubs do NOT PAY TAXES!

Maybe so, and I agree that is not a good thing. However, I’d presume that this has been the case for a long time.

Why the recent decrease in revenue from income taxes? Lower wages? Unreported income? Retirees?

New tax laws favor the rich more than ever before.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Start properly taxing the country clubs! And yes. I belong and think that it is wrong.

They are taxed at the agricultural rate, for keeping their area green space and not developing it.

No. This is incorrect.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I am AA and the local support of illegal immigrants in MoCo is ridiculous.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/seven-undocumented-immigrants-emerge-as-sex-assault-suspects-and-pull-montgomery-county-into-national-debate/2019/09/08/674cd9f8-d0e0-11e9-b29b-a528dc82154a_story.html

County support for illegal immigration has led to the deterioration of this county. Sure, there are additional factors, but this is a big one. Not PC, and doesn’t fit the progressive agenda of the Democratic leadership, but we are seeing the results. It starts out first affecting only certain neighborhoods, and then spreads to where it affects the entire county (as we are seeing with the boundary change discussion in MCPS).

I’m not AA, but I’m also not White, but I think race has nothing to do with this anyway. Anyone who is here legally (immigrant or native born) should be outraged by the County Democratic leadership’s lush to embrace illegal immigrants and encourage more illegal immigration.

Push not lush

[Anonymous]

The county should just print more money.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Start properly taxing the country clubs! And yes. I belong and think that it is wrong.

They are taxed at the agricultural rate, for keeping their area green space and not developing it.

No. This is incorrect.

If you're a private golf course with at least 50 acres and more than 100 paying members, and you're not Burning Tree, then you have a ten-year agreement with the state to be taxed at $1,000/acre. Market rate assessments are $12,500-$1.1 million per acre.

Burning Tree pays taxes on the market rate assessment, because they don't have an agreement with the state, because they don't admit women.

https://www.marylandmatters.org/2019/02/23/country-clubs-prevail-again-in-montgomery-county-delegation/
https://bethesdamagazine.com/bethesda-beat/government/delegate-wants-more-country-clubs-in-montgomery-to-pay-market-tax-rate/
https://bethesdamagazine.com/bethesda-beat/politics/montgomery-county-delegate-takes-aim-at-country-club-tax-breaks/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:WOW

Jeez. Who could have ever predicted this (sarcasm).

I'll say it again for the Nth time. MoCo is completely dysfunctional due to one party politics that has veered too far to the left. The county has rolled out the red carpet for illegal immigrants. Guess what happens? Illegal immigrants come, and they have tons of kids that need seats in schools. Schools burst at the seams and now require more spending to accommodate ESL students who need millions upon millions of dollars worth of remedial education and special English instructors. Their population alone strains school resources; now people demand we build more schools and facilities for more space. And the liberal county govt complies, only that they don't have the money. Gaithersburg now has a backlog of something like $800 million in needed school projects, and MCPS now eat up over 50% of the country's budget last time I checked.

But MoCo is getting hit from all sides - there is a demographic time bomb that's just starting to explode. The number of baby boomers is going to skyrocket out to 2040, while the number of workers in their prime earning years is expected to actually decrease during that period. What that means is even less tax revenue from income for the county while the county will face increasing demands on public services for senior citizens. Also, the county is on the hook for huge pensions liabilities that baby boomers will start to come knocking on the door for to collect who worked for the county. The demographics report released by the county also showed that population growth in MoCo will almost exclusively be driven by 'international' travelers/arrivers (aka illegal immigrants). The #1 country from which people will be arriving is from El Salvador according to the report.

But it gets worse. MoCo has had anemic job growth for the last few years because of brutally hostile anti-business policies, red tape, and taxes. MoCo is currently in NO position at all to grow their way out of their debt problem, because the county isn't creating jobs.

Put it all together and what does it mean? I means that the county will have its credit rating start to crumble if it can't fix its debt problem. If the county's credit rating starts to drop, it means borrowing becomes more expensive, and then you enter a death spiral of ballooning deficits. The only way to combat the credit rating drop is to cut spending, which we all know liberal democrats are incapable of doing, or it means tax increases. There is no doubt in my mind that we should expect significant tax increases across the board for income and property and other fees increased. But the problem is that once you start increasing taxes people will be inspired to leave. MoCo is also now hellbent on social justice warrior initiatives in MCPS that threaten to erode school quality. Once taxes increase and schools continue to get worse, you'll see more people leave and then you start entering a death spiral where you have to keep increasing taxes even more to stop the bleeding from tax losses. It is Baltimore all over again. Property values will follow the downward trajectory as the bleeding turns into hemorrhaging.

Everything is going wrong right now in MoCo. Democrats are to blame.

I agree with you and I am not a Republican.