First Six Figure College

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I predict the college bubble to about to burst.

Yes.

The problem is that state flagships set a cap.

In the old days, when people weren’t too worried about student loans, ordinary people could just take a deep breath and pay full price to go to Smith College.

Now, for families not earning more than about $400,000 a year, the idea of paying $400,000 to send a kid to Smith or Amherst, when the University of Indiana might be $240,000 out of state, and an in-state state flagship might be $140,000 all in, seems absurd. The only schools where the idea of actually paying $400,000 seems somewhat reasonable are places like Harvard.

I think that means that, to have a hope of survival, most private colleges have to hold the total cost of attendance to less than about $45,000 to $50,000 per year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I predict the college bubble to about to burst.

Yes.

The problem is that state flagships set a cap.

In the old days, when people weren’t too worried about student loans, ordinary people could just take a deep breath and pay full price to go to Smith College.

Now, for families not earning more than about $400,000 a year, the idea of paying $400,000 to send a kid to Smith or Amherst, when the University of Indiana might be $240,000 out of state, and an in-state state flagship might be $140,000 all in, seems absurd. The only schools where the idea of actually paying $400,000 seems somewhat reasonable are places like Harvard.

I think that means that, to have a hope of survival, most private colleges have to hold the total cost of attendance to less than about $45,000 to $50,000 per year.

And yet the average cost is substantially higher than that now, and people are lined up to pay it at plenty of schools ranked below Harvard, and praying their kid gets in.

I think what you think may SEEM logical, but the market is telling us differently at this moment.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I predict the college bubble to about to burst.

Yes.

The problem is that state flagships set a cap.

In the old days, when people weren’t too worried about student loans, ordinary people could just take a deep breath and pay full price to go to Smith College.

Now, for families not earning more than about $400,000 a year, the idea of paying $400,000 to send a kid to Smith or Amherst, when the University of Indiana might be $240,000 out of state, and an in-state state flagship might be $140,000 all in, seems absurd. The only schools where the idea of actually paying $400,000 seems somewhat reasonable are places like Harvard.

I think that means that, to have a hope of survival, most private colleges have to hold the total cost of attendance to less than about $45,000 to $50,000 per year.

And yet the average cost is substantially higher than that now, and people are lined up to pay it at plenty of schools ranked below Harvard, and praying their kid gets in.

I think what you think may SEEM logical, but the market is telling us differently at this moment.

The fact is there are enough people with the cash and they are spending it for bragging rights schools everyday. Moreover,
the price increase allows ivys and other top schools to raise the odd for legacies (enough can pay 400+ per kid) and get rid of the preference while still sticking to the mission and admitting lower income students.

[Anonymous]

This is presumably the article https://hechingerreport.org/university-of-chicago-projected-to-be-the-first-u-s-university-to-charge-100000-a-year/

I do not buy the projection that cost of attendance will be over 100k at U Chicago in only five years. They are assuming - their guess - that costs will rise at the same rate they have, and I don't think that will prove correct.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s only a matter f time. Many more families with money to VERY HAPPILY pay for top and trendy schools than spots. I believe top 30 or so could go well over 100k and still fill the class. School that are favored by the top 1% do not have declining enrollment or applications. Those schools will still make their socio economic diversity goals through generous financial aid.

Smaller expensive colleges are showing warning signs of struggling to attract full pay students, especially outside the top 20 or so LACs. I would think the more the tuition goes up, the smaller the pool for full freight is.

However you slice it, 400k for a BA is astounding. I graduated at a time when tuition at expensive schools topped at 30k, so 120k for a BA. Compare it to buying a house. It was probably half the value of a decently nice house in a mid tier city circa 2000 (going for 250k on average). Today that house might go for 400k so the BA is the equivalent of a house. That shows you the inflation in higher education.

And many on DCUM are brutal to those that havent saved the entire balance of college cost...how many people pay cash for a house?

[Anonymous]

People don't pay cash for houses because there are tax laws let the government help you pay for a loan.

People don't pay cash for houses because the house is collateral for a loan.

Neither the government nor the bank wants to help pay for college.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The articles says 42 percent of the university’s 6,300 or so undergraduates paid the sticker price in the 2016–17 school year, according to the most recent available net-cost data.

This is depressing. If you want your kids to have a college with small, challenging classes, it feels like your options are limited if you're among those who aren't considered financially needy but don't have more than $1 million for three kids' education. Even if we could come up with that amount of money, it seems like a ripoff.

But this is about a school that is not normal. It’s one of the few elite schools that admit a tiny percentage of their applicants. The majority of colleges are going to work hard to recruit students and many will offer merit money.

If you remove the handful of ultra selective schools from your view, the picture is not bleak at all. The number of high school seniors continues to decrease.

[Anonymous]

Thankfully, I don't have $100,000 per year!

[Anonymous]

The majority of colleges are going to work hard to recruit students and many will offer merit money.

Name some offering merit to kids who've worked hard and taken tough classes but don't have straight As or close to it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s only a matter f time. Many more families with money to VERY HAPPILY pay for top and trendy schools than spots. I believe top 30 or so could go well over 100k and still fill the class. School that are favored by the top 1% do not have declining enrollment or applications. Those schools will still make their socio economic diversity goals through generous financial aid.

Smaller expensive colleges are showing warning signs of struggling to attract full pay students, especially outside the top 20 or so LACs. I would think the more the tuition goes up, the smaller the pool for full freight is.

However you slice it, 400k for a BA is astounding. I graduated at a time when tuition at expensive schools topped at 30k, so 120k for a BA. Compare it to buying a house. It was probably half the value of a decently nice house in a mid tier city circa 2000 (going for 250k on average). Today that house might go for 400k so the BA is the equivalent of a house. That shows you the inflation in higher education.

And many on DCUM are brutal to those that havent saved the entire balance of college cost...how many people pay cash for a house?

That's not a relevant question -- many people who could pay cash for a house do not because low interest rates and the tax benefits of mortgages make tying money up in a residence a bad use of capital.

[Anonymous]

Waste of money.

[Anonymous]

OP my daughter applied NYU this year. Per NYS law you have to disclose projected tuition years 2-4. So parents know true cost. NYU is in high 80s by senior year. Even at 3 percent increases it will hit 100k by 2027.

Fordham, Columbia, Cornell and Syracuse in NY also have to disclose projected 2024 tuition it is clearly showing all four will hit 100k this decade

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:OP my daughter applied NYU this year. Per NYS law you have to disclose projected tuition years 2-4. So parents know true cost. NYU is in high 80s by senior year. Even at 3 percent increases it will hit 100k by 2027.

Fordham, Columbia, Cornell and Syracuse in NY also have to disclose projected 2024 tuition it is clearly showing all four will hit 100k this decade

I can't seem to find this disclosure of projected increases. Where is this located? Could you link one of them?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

The majority of colleges are going to work hard to recruit students and many will offer merit money.

Name some offering merit to kids who've worked hard and taken tough classes but don't have straight As or close to it.

Then it wouldn’t be merit would it?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

The majority of colleges are going to work hard to recruit students and many will offer merit money.

Name some offering merit to kids who've worked hard and taken tough classes but don't have straight As or close to it.

Loads and loads of them.

Seriously, most of them below the top 100, and pretty much all of them below the top 200. Out of 3500+ colleges. Amounts may vary but 10-15K is common, especially for the (otherwise) full pays at need aware schools.

You'd have an easier time listing all the ones that don't.

Google, go to the websites, etc. Some are even listed on the net price calculators.