Boyds - How Safe from Redistricting ?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP you could rent another year until the boundary decision is made. Prices are not going up in Boyds -if anything it continues to soften. If the area you like gets rezoned it will be worth even less. If it stays in NW it won't be much more than it costs now -might even be less anyway if the Montgomery County markets keeps softening.

OP here. Circumstances are driving a change to a bigger house. Waiting another year isn't really an option. I could plausibly wait until the Spring, but then I'm worried about getting pulled into the Spring buying frenzy. This can be a pretty good time to find decent deals.

The simple fact is that these areas attract buyers with families, so schools are important. While I wish I could think in terms of the poster at 14:51, I really can't. A move from NW to SVHS would almost certainly cause a noticeable drop.

Part of me wants to wait until the SVHS redistricting is decided, although I don't think that ultimately matters. The areas I'm looking at remain in NW under all the current plan options. While I know the BoE can always come back with a new plan, I think this area is unlikely to change in this first step. But as they build more schools I don't know what's going to happen. There's certainly interest in doing broader boundary changes. I suspect the expensive areas downcounty are safe because of the political influence of homeowners and the logistics of busing, but I can't afford the homes down there.

Then either rent until after the boundary decisions have been made, or buy a bigger house now that is currently zoned for Seneca Valley High School.

[Anonymous]

Rent unless you are very close to the debt to income ratio for the mortgage you would need even if prices dropped 10%. Chances are high that taxes will go up in Montgomery County. This will drag home prices BUT it will also make it harder for some buyers to qualify for the size mortgage they want due to the debt to income ratio. As far out as Boyds, you are probably in the situation where the home prices will drop further than the tax increase will decrease your qualifications but buyers in Bethesda may get hit.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Rent unless you are very close to the debt to income ratio for the mortgage you would need even if prices dropped 10%. Chances are high that taxes will go up in Montgomery County. This will drag home prices BUT it will also make it harder for some buyers to qualify for the size mortgage they want due to the debt to income ratio. As far out as Boyds, you are probably in the situation where the home prices will drop further than the tax increase will decrease your qualifications but buyers in Bethesda may get hit.

OP is really talking about Germantown, not Boyds. So a bit closer in.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Rent unless you are very close to the debt to income ratio for the mortgage you would need even if prices dropped 10%. Chances are high that taxes will go up in Montgomery County. This will drag home prices BUT it will also make it harder for some buyers to qualify for the size mortgage they want due to the debt to income ratio. As far out as Boyds, you are probably in the situation where the home prices will drop further than the tax increase will decrease your qualifications but buyers in Bethesda may get hit.

OP here. I don't subscribe to the "sky is falling" attitude around MoCo that's so common around DCUM.

Truth be told, I'm not sure what point you're making. If prices dropped 10%, I could probably afford a house that's more solidly in, say, QOHS (with a possibility to move to Crown). But I don't think they're going to drop that much over the next year or two.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Let me guess: you either don't have kids or you've got the money to live in a >$800k house

Try again. I have a kid in an approximately $450,000 house. What I don't have is:

1) An obsession with imaginary money that doesn't exist until I sell anyway
2) The financial illiteracy to believe that my home's value dropping is "theft" or to put myself in a situation where my house value falling is the end of the world, or
3) The selfishness to insist that the world bend so as to insulate me from the consequences of (2).

OP here.

It's not that. I'm not looking for the house to act as an investment- I just don't want to get trapped. Homes aren't like investments. Most people go into substantial debt to buy a house. And a change in work/life circumstances can force a move. I had several family members and friends whose homes ended up underwater after the housing market tanked and they basically were stuck in their homes for years. These weren't people that were struggling to pay their mortgage- they just couldn't buy out the difference while still having enough money to close and move.

Buying/selling houses is expensive. So, trying to move after, say, a $100k (or perhaps even 50k) drop in value really becomes problematic. Even if other homes are cheaper, most people are still going to find themselves cash-strapped in that situation. Even people with decent savings would struggle.

How much of a problem is this? Realistically, my spouse and I have stable jobs in fields in high-demand. If somehow something happened at our current jobs we'd probably find something new fairly easily. And we're being pretty cautious about what to take on in terms of a mortgage. For example, we'd be OK on one income for a while. Nonetheless, it will take us a while to regrow our savings to a point where we could move after taking a $100k/$50k hit the house value. So, while several things would probably have to go wrong to make this a problem, it's still a concern of mine. It'd be nice to get a better handle on the level of risk.

[Anonymous]

OP, then rent.

[Anonymous]

So, OP: unless the superintendant does something unprescendented (right? DCUM may know a counterexample), he is going to pick among proposed maps, not make another map.

While the upcoming countywide is unprescedented, generally the county tries to avoid redistricting more often than every few years; that is why a part of Clarksburg HS has been excluded from the SVHS reassignment. If that logic holds, your next reassignment timeframe is Crown 10 year away. I think you are OK, but obviously BOE is a natural disaster that cannot be 100% predicted.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So, OP: unless the superintendant does something unprescendented (right? DCUM may know a counterexample), he is going to pick among proposed maps, not make another map.

While the upcoming countywide is unprescedented, generally the county tries to avoid redistricting more often than every few years; that is why a part of Clarksburg HS has been excluded from the SVHS reassignment. If that logic holds, your next reassignment timeframe is Crown 10 year away. I think you are OK, but obviously BOE is a natural disaster that cannot be 100% predicted.

The superintendent, who makes a recommendation, may ask for more options. And the Board of Education, which decides, may also ask for more options.

Also, the countywide boundary analysis is an analysis only. It will not result in any boundary changes. Boundary changes will require boundary studies like the current upcounty boundary study.

Also, no, there is not any part of Clarksburg HS that was excluded from the upcounty boundary study. The part of Clarksburg that is in the Damascus HS cluster was excluded because it's in the Damascus HS cluster, and the Damascus HS cluster is not part of the upcounty boundary study for Clarksburg HS-Northwest HS-Seneca Valley HS.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So, OP: unless the superintendant does something unprescendented (right? DCUM may know a counterexample), he is going to pick among proposed maps, not make another map.

While the upcoming countywide is unprescedented, generally the county tries to avoid redistricting more often than every few years; that is why a part of Clarksburg HS has been excluded from the SVHS reassignment. If that logic holds, your next reassignment timeframe is Crown 10 year away. I think you are OK, but obviously BOE is a natural disaster that cannot be 100% predicted.

The superintendent, who makes a recommendation, may ask for more options. And the Board of Education, which decides, may also ask for more options.

Also, the countywide boundary analysis is an analysis only. It will not result in any boundary changes. Boundary changes will require boundary studies like the current upcounty boundary study.

Also, no, there is not any part of Clarksburg HS that was excluded from the upcounty boundary study. The part of Clarksburg that is in the Damascus HS cluster was excluded because it's in the Damascus HS cluster, and the Damascus HS cluster is not part of the upcounty boundary study for Clarksburg HS-Northwest HS-Seneca Valley HS.

There was a part excluded, Wims ES and maybe some surrounding area, because they just underwent reassignment after getting a new elementary. You can look it up.

Sure, superintendant may, but have they ever? If new maps are made, then whole new round of public feedbck is required, no? Otherwise, that would be an autocratic process, with BOE coming up with some maps, public commenting, surveys going out, letters written, then maps go into trash, and whole new uncommented map involving previously unselected areas stamped into law. BOE is crazy, but not that crazy, as far as I know.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So, OP: unless the superintendant does something unprescendented (right? DCUM may know a counterexample), he is going to pick among proposed maps, not make another map.

While the upcoming countywide is unprescedented, generally the county tries to avoid redistricting more often than every few years; that is why a part of Clarksburg HS has been excluded from the SVHS reassignment. If that logic holds, your next reassignment timeframe is Crown 10 year away. I think you are OK, but obviously BOE is a natural disaster that cannot be 100% predicted.

The superintendent, who makes a recommendation, may ask for more options. And the Board of Education, which decides, may also ask for more options.

Also, the countywide boundary analysis is an analysis only. It will not result in any boundary changes. Boundary changes will require boundary studies like the current upcounty boundary study.

Also, no, there is not any part of Clarksburg HS that was excluded from the upcounty boundary study. The part of Clarksburg that is in the Damascus HS cluster was excluded because it's in the Damascus HS cluster, and the Damascus HS cluster is not part of the upcounty boundary study for Clarksburg HS-Northwest HS-Seneca Valley HS.

There was a part excluded, Wims ES and maybe some surrounding area, because they just underwent reassignment after getting a new elementary. You can look it up.

Sure, superintendant may, but have they ever? If new maps are made, then whole new round of public feedbck is required, no? Otherwise, that would be an autocratic process, with BOE coming up with some maps, public commenting, surveys going out, letters written, then maps go into trash, and whole new uncommented map involving previously unselected areas stamped into law. BOE is crazy, but not that crazy, as far as I know.

The part going to Damascus HS was excluded. And classes that had already been reassigned to a different school once were excluded. But Wims was not excluded.

Public feedback is required regardless.

[Anonymous]

Just look here:

https://www.montgomeryschoolsmd.org/departments/planning/UpcountyHSBoundaryStudy.aspx

Please look on the grayed out area comprising most of Hallie Wells MS. It was excluded from the study not because it reports to Damascus HS, but because they just underwent reassignment.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Just look here:

https://www.montgomeryschoolsmd.org/departments/planning/UpcountyHSBoundaryStudy.aspx

Please look on the grayed out area comprising most of Hallie Wells MS. It was excluded from the study not because it reports to Damascus HS, but because they just underwent reassignment.

No, because it's in the Damascus HS cluster.

[Anonymous]

See the Hallie Wells MS service area map here: http://gis.mcpsmd.org/ServiceAreaMaps/HallieWellsMS.pdf

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Just look here:

https://www.montgomeryschoolsmd.org/departments/planning/UpcountyHSBoundaryStudy.aspx

Please look on the grayed out area comprising most of Hallie Wells MS. It was excluded from the study not because it reports to Damascus HS, but because they just underwent reassignment.

No, because it's in the Damascus HS cluster.

Hallie Wells splits and articulates to Clarksburg or Damascus.

[Anonymous]

OP if you are that concerned why not buy into the PHS cluster instead? It's not that much further out.