Do you see any flaw in this very early retirement calculation

[Anonymous]

OP. That was a typo. Meant 18% returns. I have friends making 25-30% average in the last few years granted it’s been very bull. I can’t count on that.

[Anonymous]

Let me help with a better calculation. I wouldn’t assume more than 4% return so its closer to 2.7 not 5 million. But that should give 108k. In 6 yrs you will likely end up spending 35-50% of that in health insurance. Your net worth is good but if either you or your wife could work so you have health insurance till 65 when Medicare kicks in, then you are golden.

Why did you use ‘retire’ for your wife- does she never plan to rejoin the workforce? Not even when you have to retire for health reasons? Your kid will be in school soon.

[Anonymous]

I would account for far less income as some of it will be for college and isn’t at least half of it in retirement accounts? You may end up with less than half of what PP calculated, which will go for health insurance. Granted house is paid off and and college accounted for but you still need money to live on.

2.7 million at 65 vs at 50 is a huge difference.

I agree on not including social security for income. It’s likely not going to be available by the time you qualify anyway.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:OP. That was a typo. Meant 18% returns. I have friends making 25-30% average in the last few years granted it’s been very bull. I can’t count on that.

Are you for real? Everybody made that last year but it's a real aberration. You can't count on anywhere near that amount over six years. I thought your typo was aggressive -- eight percent is wishful thinking!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Your wife is not retired, she’s a SAHM.

This

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:OP. That was a typo. Meant 18% returns. I have friends making 25-30% average in the last few years granted it’s been very bull. I can’t count on that.

Your flaw is your rate of return estimate. Average returns are around 6-7% over the long run. Market in for a correction soon.

[Anonymous]

Who has the health concerns, you, wife, or both? Are they at the level that you might not live that long, in which case you might want to take Social Security at 62 even though it's less?

Or that you'll want to take Social Security disability (in which case the person with the health condition should try and work enough to stay insured--then they can also get benefits for the child until age 18 and Medicare after a 2-year wait)?

Why exactly do you want to retire? Would working part-time (especially somewhere that gives health insurance to PT workers) fit in to your plans? That would give you a lot of wiggle room. Or are you willing to move to a place with much lower cost of living than DC?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Who has the health concerns, you, wife, or both? Are they at the level that you might not live that long, in which case you might want to take Social Security at 62 even though it's less?

Or that you'll want to take Social Security disability (in which case the person with the health condition should try and work enough to stay insured--then they can also get benefits for the child until age 18 and Medicare after a 2-year wait)?

Why exactly do you want to retire? Would working part-time (especially somewhere that gives health insurance to PT workers) fit in to your plans? That would give you a lot of wiggle room. Or are you willing to move to a place with much lower cost of living than DC?

This. This is a very balanced response. Understandably even with some chronic and tough health issues you may not qualify for disability (our scenario). If you can retire from full time here and take up some thing part-time with benefits in a cheaper place, you will do much better. And yes, don’t assume more than 6% average returns.

[Anonymous]

We only assume 4% returns and I believe a lot of people do the samt. The last few years have been great, but it was an anomaly. Also, around 2020 there may be a recession of some sort although the tariff situation could bring it on earlier.

[Anonymous]

Health care is huge, OP. My DH is retiring fairly early (I SAH). We are 51 and will be 55 when he retires. The only reasons we can do it are (1) Our kids will all be out of college) and (2) DH is a Fed. We keep our health insurance and have a decent retirement. We don't have the savings you have. But the health care coverage makes it possible.

[Anonymous]

The kind of risk needed for 18% returns may get you to your number, or it may eviscerate your principal.

Nothing wrong with it if you understand the risks, but it doesn't sound to me like you do.

[Anonymous]

4% of $2MM is $80k per year. With a paid off house and no debt, you can't live off of that? Even when subtracting health insurance expenses and any taxes on dividends/capital gains? Even in a high cost of living area, $5k per month after health insurance and taxes and no mortgage or debt is a lot of money.

I'd look at cutting your spending because you can probably retire right now if you take a good hard look at all expenses.

[Anonymous]

Lol yeah no flaws in just assuming 18% returns for the next 5 years. No flaws at all.

[Anonymous]

Keep in mind, Bernie Madoff's investors were only "getting" about 10% before the scheme collapsed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Lol yeah no flaws in just assuming 18% returns for the next 5 years. No flaws at all.

Seriously. I don’t understand how some people live.