Doing math on the new boundaries

[Anonymous]

some kids at Deal and Hardy will go to Banneker, SWW, and Ellington. Agreed that it might not be enough kids though.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Not sure what Murch will be next year but this year they added in an additional 5th grade. I believe that the current 3rd grade is one of the largest cohorts at the school. So they may have to ramp up for that.

A few other things-- Deal is adding in Reno School so that may change their capacity.

Murch's building (plus 1980s temporary building) capacity is 488, enrollment this year was 628 from preK-5, with 680 projected for next year. The rising 5th grade class is about 90, and it is the smallest class (other than preK of course). Next year, more trailers will be added to accommodate in total: four PK rooms (one is a dedicated autism classroom), five K-2nd, and four 3-5th. Only a handful of students are choosing other than Deal these days. So Murch will likely average 80-100 or so students per year to Deal over the next seven years. All of the kids are grandfathered, so the boundary process doesn't change anything here; even then the households moved are moved into Deal feeders anyway. Then, post renovation, the notion seems to be to build for 800 capacity if feasible -- but it may not be feasible on that lot. So that throws a wrench into OPs math.

[Anonymous]

OP here. Many thanks to all for pointing out the variables that make an accurate headcount difficult. I'm sure the DME's data crunchers have lots better info that I do, so they probably can more accurately predict what will happen.

But as I read things, my rough math, taking into account the variables people have cited, seems to strongly suggest that the current proposal will just barely keep Deal and Wilson close to their rated capacity, and may well result in those schools being over-capacity despite the boundary changes that have been proposed.

I suppose different people could read that different ways: some might think the whole proposal needs to be reworked, others might think OOB set asides should be reduced, others might want to shrink boundaries further, and still others might want to build new schools. But for me at least, it suggests we should build into the plan some contingency terms for what will happen when Deal and Wilson are again exceeding capacity in the next 2-4 years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:OP here. Many thanks to all for pointing out the variables that make an accurate headcount difficult. I'm sure the DME's data crunchers have lots better info that I do, so they probably can more accurately predict what will happen.

But as I read things, my rough math, taking into account the variables people have cited, seems to strongly suggest that the current proposal will just barely keep Deal and Wilson close to their rated capacity, and may well result in those schools being over-capacity despite the boundary changes that have been proposed.

I suppose different people could read that different ways: some might think the whole proposal needs to be reworked, others might think OOB set asides should be reduced, others might want to shrink boundaries further, and still others might want to build new schools. But for me at least, it suggests we should build into the plan some contingency terms for what will happen when Deal and Wilson are again exceeding capacity in the next 2-4 years.

You are 110% correct.

[Anonymous]

These are Dept. of Ed. (federal) figures for 2011-12 first graders (which is the latest data available--this would be the 2015-16 sixth grade cohort entering Deal).

Bancroft: 54
Hearst: 36
Janney: 89
Lafayette: 111
Murch: 97
Shepard: 65

Total is 452. So your calculations are pretty close, OP.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Not sure what Murch will be next year but this year they added in an additional 5th grade. I believe that the current 3rd grade is one of the largest cohorts at the school. So they may have to ramp up for that.

A few other things-- Deal is adding in Reno School so that may change their capacity.

Murch's building (plus 1980s temporary building) capacity is 488, enrollment this year was 628 from preK-5, with 680 projected for next year. The rising 5th grade class is about 90, and it is the smallest class (other than preK of course). Next year, more trailers will be added to accommodate in total: four PK rooms (one is a dedicated autism classroom), five K-2nd, and four 3-5th. Only a handful of students are choosing other than Deal these days. So Murch will likely average 80-100 or so students per year to Deal over the next seven years. All of the kids are grandfathered, so the boundary process doesn't change anything here; even then the households moved are moved into Deal feeders anyway. Then, post renovation, the notion seems to be to build for 800 capacity if feasible -- but it may not be feasible on that lot. So that throws a wrench into OPs math.

600+ in an elementary school?? And projecting for 800?? That is absolutely insane. That would make it larger than every DCPS high school, excepting Wilson.

This is ridiculous for a community of young children. At what point are these schools too big?

[Anonymous]

At the current point, which is exactly why we are having these zoning discussions, to relieve the overcrowding.

[Anonymous]

Murch, Janney, and Lafayette are already bigger than about 12 of DCs high schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Lets see what the next Mayor decides on doing before doing anymore analysis. Bowser has stated that she wouldn't cut Powell out of Deal - so more kids

Powell is not IB for Deal. Only a small amount of kids that attend Powell (and West) that live in Crestwood and 16th St heights happen to live IB for Deal.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lets see what the next Mayor decides on doing before doing anymore analysis. Bowser has stated that she wouldn't cut Powell out of Deal - so more kids

Powell is not IB for Deal. Only a small amount of kids that attend Powell (and West) that live in Crestwood and 16th St heights happen to live IB for Deal.

Almost all of the West boundary is IB for deal. Only a small corner between Arkansas and Georgia isn't. Powell is split about 50:50 geographically.

[Anonymous]

Janney will be close to 725 this coming year. Maybe more depending on how many houses sell in AU.

Right now they are sending close to 100 to Deal. When this year's first grade class (rising second graders) hit deal it will be 125.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Janney will be close to 725 this coming year. Maybe more depending on how many houses sell in AU.

Right now they are sending close to 100 to Deal. When this year's first grade class (rising second graders) hit deal it will be 125.

That is crazy. It's really completely unacceptable! How can anyone be okay with this??

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Janney will be close to 725 this coming year. Maybe more depending on how many houses sell in AU.

Right now they are sending close to 100 to Deal. When this year's first grade class (rising second graders) hit deal it will be 125.

That is crazy. It's really completely unacceptable! How can anyone be okay with this??

From a political perspective the alternative -- redistricting -- is worse. Redistricting requires making choices and offending people. Crowding requires only that nothing be done.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Janney will be close to 725 this coming year. Maybe more depending on how many houses sell in AU.

Right now they are sending close to 100 to Deal. When this year's first grade class (rising second graders) hit deal it will be 125.

Where did you get these numbers? The last I heard the principal speak on this it was going to be around 680, which is an increase from 626 this year. The difference is a larger 5th grade is moving up and a large class of incoming k students (going from 60 pre-k students to over 100 K students) and then adding a preK class. There are always a few new students per grade. An increase of 100 students in the course of 1 year is absurd. I can see that adding the 4th preK might get us to 700 if that was unaccounted for in the earlier numbers, but it will included students that would have been there in K anyways so is a little different than if thosee numbers were in upper grades.

[Anonymous]

Also, the class of 125 K students was an anomaly, there were 100 this past year.