Why are ES schools in affluent areas all of sudden under enrolled ?

[Anonymous]

Less turnover in housing. People are living in their houses longer and there is less inventory for families with young kids to move in.

[Anonymous]

Interesting- Parents with young kids are buying expensive houses in BCC though, right? I wonder if there is a growing premium on being close-in to the city?

[Anonymous]

Whitman cluster ESs all seem to be overenrolled, as are the MS and HS. They are projected to continue growing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:OP here, I'm referring to ES schools in Wootton and Churchill. We have some ES schools in our cluster that are over crowded but these area have a mix of housing options - some very expensive and some smaller more affordable town homes and condos. The ES schools that only have the more expensive houses are declining in enrollment.

Again, its not that there are fewer children. I have an older child and this was never an issue in the past.

I'm in Wootton cluster and my kid is in private school. But I'm in one of those "cheap" Townhouses. My kid is in private for k-8 and will likely go to a public high school. I know many like me. The just really want the small class sizes and personalized attention in the early years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Whitman cluster ESs all seem to be overenrolled, as are the MS and HS. They are projected to continue growing.

According to this link, the ESs in that cluster are projected to have decrease enrollment in the next 2 yrs. HS and MS still look high.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Whitman cluster ESs all seem to be overenrolled, as are the MS and HS. They are projected to continue growing.

According to this link, the ESs in that cluster are projected to have decrease enrollment in the next 2 yrs. HS and MS still look high.

It shows that ES may be down 3% but goes back up in the out years. The over enrollment drops because Wood Acres will have more capacity in 2 years because the addition will be complete. And this doesn't factor in the redevelopment of Westbard, which may add significantly to the housing stock.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP here, I'm referring to ES schools in Wootton and Churchill. We have some ES schools in our cluster that are over crowded but these area have a mix of housing options - some very expensive and some smaller more affordable town homes and condos. The ES schools that only have the more expensive houses are declining in enrollment.

Again, its not that there are fewer children. I have an older child and this was never an issue in the past.

I don't know about your area, but a friend in the Churchill cluster told me that in her neighborhood, she doesn't see a lot families with young children moving in, partly because the area is so expensive. Usually, younger parents have less $ than the older parents with older kids.

I think Bethesda is way more expensive than Potomac, on a per sq ft basis, and most of the schools here are bursting at the seams with kids. My guess is that people with kids and downtown jobs don't want the commute from Potomac.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Interesting- Parents with young kids are buying expensive houses in BCC though, right? I wonder if there is a growing premium on being close-in to the city?

I think so. Our Whitman neighborhood has new families-with-kids moving in all the time. Older folks move out, the house gets knocked down, a bigger house goes up, and kids move in. The cost is not keeping people from moving into Bethesda with young children.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Interesting- Parents with young kids are buying expensive houses in BCC though, right? I wonder if there is a growing premium on being close-in to the city?

I think so. Our Whitman neighborhood has new families-with-kids moving in all the time. Older folks move out, the house gets knocked down, a bigger house goes up, and kids move in. The cost is not keeping people from moving into Bethesda with young children.

If I had the money and worked in DC, I would probably buy in Bethesda, too, because the commute to DC is shorter. And I think Potomac is more suburban than Bethesda so maybe a lot more people also prefer the more "walkable" town with a good school district than the suburban sprawl of Potomac, plus Potomac neighborhoods don't have sidewalks, which to me is really weird.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Less turnover in housing. People are living in their houses longer and there is less inventory for families with young kids to move in.

I think this, coupled with younger families' desire to live closer in, is causing the issue. I went to Wootton and my mother still lives in the house in which I grew up. Many of my friends' parents still live in their homes as well.

[Anonymous]

Less turnover in housing. People are living in their houses longer and there is less inventory for families with young kids to move in.

We aren't seeing this in the western Potomac, north potomac and rockville (farther out not close in) areas. The turn over is the same and the house appreciation is pretty flat. It isn't sky rocketing like Bethesda or Arlington. There aren't fewer elementary school students just fewer going to public.

When my kid went to Montessori for preschool hardly any kids stayed through K. There were maybe 5-6 kindergarten kids spread across 5 Montessori classes. My neighbor who has a rising K student told me that its completely reversed now. Almost all the students stay for K instead of MCPS which is something like 30-40 kids. The schools pulls from multiple area but a good amount come from our ES areas.

2.0 and huge class sizes is pushing more people into private for K-8.

[Anonymous]

Wound't the Montessori K students go to first grade in public then?

For what it is worth, my local school in QO district is going from 4 to 5 classes this year. Although my son is staying in his private school for K at least.

[Anonymous]

RM cluster in Rockville is very over crowded. No mass migration to private here.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:RM cluster in Rockville is very over crowded. No mass migration to private here.

It's all relative. QO and RM clusters are not affluent compared to Potomac. Yes, there are some areas of those 2 cities that rival Potomac house prices, but for the most part, the prices don't compare.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:RM cluster in Rockville is very over crowded. No mass migration to private here.

It's all relative. QO and RM clusters are not affluent compared to Potomac. Yes, there are some areas of those 2 cities that rival Potomac house prices, but for the most part, the prices don't compare.

I agree. But it also could be that Potomac is getting older with all these aging in place going on. People don't downsize immediately when the kids left the house. And young people cannot afford Potomac anyway. We have to look at the data and see whether there are truly not the same number of ES aged children in those school catchment areas.