Concerned about building in n arlington and the "bubble".

[Anonymous]

OP, unless you think Washington DC is going away, I don't see how you can lose.

[Anonymous]

I think you're fine as long as the lot is a good one. You don't want to be on a hill without a useful lot, even if the house can be built on it. At that price level, you really want a useable yard in the back.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:North Arlington isn't McLean , Great Falls, Bethesda or Potomac it's screwed

Ha, you're funny. Nobody wants long commutes anymore so close in areas will continue to do well. I don't know anyone who is in their 20s or 30s and plans to live in Great Falls or Potomac.

Right cause the rich take the metro

Yes, but I can drive my luxury car to work downtown or Tysons in less than 30 minutes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:North Arlington isn't McLean , Great Falls, Bethesda or Potomac it's screwed

Ha, you're funny. Nobody wants long commutes anymore so close in areas will continue to do well. I don't know anyone who is in their 20s or 30s and plans to live in Great Falls or Potomac.

Right cause the rich take the metro

Yes, but I can drive my luxury car to work downtown or Tysons in less than 30 minutes.

Exactly. Rich people might not take the Metro once they are rich, but they will always value their time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:New builds in Lyon Village are currently selling at $1.8-2 so the price right now seems reasonable.

That part of N.Arlington near McLean has always been an exclusive area--even during the bubble.

Real estate is a gamble. We bought a home at height of bubble on 2005 and it has appreciated $200k since then. We saw no losses just a flat year and smaller gains until recovery.

I felt lucky this go around --we bought in a lull in N Arlington late 2009 and have seen $450k appreciation so far.

If this is a 'long term' house you can ride out any dips if they do occur.

Very true. That is a great area in Arlington and I wouldn't worry too much about it. Go for it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So we are looking at a lot with a builder to build a custom home. It will probably end up all together around $1.8 or higher. The lot is in extreme north arlington near McLean. Lot is large for arlington (13,000 sf/.3 acre) and one side is parkland so you only have neighbors to your right. This seems good, as DH's commute would be good (about 1/2-1/4 what it is now), and there is lots of room to breathe, w/o having to pay even more for McLean prices. However, that is our concern. Is this way too much to be spending in n arlington? We would be staying in this house for the long run, hence why we are building, so we are less concerned with the potential for resale as for the stagnation and general decline of that area. We would certainly not be the nicest house in the neighborhood-and it backs on to a street that has multiple $2 mm houses on it-but there are still lots of tear downs around and it is decidedly not walkable to anything unless you want to get your daily exercise walking to the grocery and back.

What are your thoughts on this?

Is it actually in Arlington or does it have an Arlington Postal Code. Some houses along the McLean/Arlington line have Arlington Postal codes but actually are in Fairfax County- so those children go to Fairfax County Schools. There are some roads where all but 2-4 houses at the end are in Arlington and the last few are in Fairfax County.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:North Arlington isn't McLean , Great Falls, Bethesda or Potomac it's screwed

Ha, you're funny. Nobody wants long commutes anymore so close in areas will continue to do well. I don't know anyone who is in their 20s or 30s and plans to live in Great Falls or Potomac.

Right cause the rich take the metro

Laugh all you want. I admit, I am a hypocrite. I live 2 blocks from the Metro...and I admit I almost never take it. I WAH. DH used to take it, but now it is quicker to drive--he goes against traffic outside of DC.

That said---I do love living near the Metro because it is great for my property values and it is the reason there is so much walkability and desirability.

I also LOVE the many different commuter options we do have. Metro is there if roads are jammed, cars are broken and great for visiting friends and relatives to hop on and off when they visit. We might Metro with kids for events in DC----or we might bike in. Relatives will often Metro from Union Station or National airport and then walk the block to our house.

Many of my neighbors do commute on Metro daily--and they live in multi-million homes making bank. Or a few days out of the week. Being just a few blocks away--there is no parking to worry about.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:New builds in Lyon Village are currently selling at $1.8-2 so the price right now seems reasonable.

That part of N.Arlington near McLean has always been an exclusive area--even during the bubble.

Real estate is a gamble. We bought a home at height of bubble on 2005 and it has appreciated $200k since then. We saw no losses just a flat year and smaller gains until recovery.

I felt lucky this go around --we bought in a lull in N Arlington late 2009 and have seen $450k appreciation so far.

If this is a 'long term' house you can ride out any dips if they do occur.

Very true. That is a great area in Arlington and I wouldn't worry too much about it. Go for it.

If the house is 5-7 year only then I would be concerned. Anything that is a 'long-term' home it shouldn't matter.

[Anonymous]

Can the people who live in North Arlington afford their homes if they had to buy it again? Do the incomes support the home prices? Are there other areas being developed elsewhere that are like pre-arlington before the metro? Are people still investing in developing metro centric Arlington area? These are all important questions to ask.

Live in North Arlington because you like it but as an investment it would not be as good of a choice as other places.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:How much sq ft? How big are the $2m houses? Assuming it's a comparable size and similar finishes I think you'll be fine.

Is it in Country Club Hills? That area is always desirable.

If you think you'll be there a while I wouldn't sweat it at all.

+1

Agree. And if you are going to be in the house a long time, build what you want.

[Anonymous]

The "bubble" risk is endemic to NoVa, but if you put this aside it's as good an area as any (and very hot this year). Homes in Arlington closer to the Orange Line may be trendier for those who want to walk everywhere, but good luck finding a .3 acre lot there. Homes in McLean may be zoned for higher-ranked schools, but FCPS has more fiscal issues than APS. I don't think you can really go wrong unless you build something awful that no one else would ever want to buy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The "bubble" risk is endemic to NoVa, but if you put this aside it's as good an area as any (and very hot this year). Homes in Arlington closer to the Orange Line may be trendier for those who want to walk everywhere, but good luck finding a .3 acre lot there. Homes in McLean may be zoned for higher-ranked schools, but FCPS has more fiscal issues than APS. I don't think you can really go wrong unless you build something awful that no one else would ever want to buy.

FCPS have less issues because the good schools don't have to support the lower SES that require a lot of public assistance.

FCPS also has a lot of programs that exceed APS's offerings. FCPS has AAP, GT, IB, AP and STEM Academies where as APS only has AP and IB.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The "bubble" risk is endemic to NoVa, but if you put this aside it's as good an area as any (and very hot this year). Homes in Arlington closer to the Orange Line may be trendier for those who want to walk everywhere, but good luck finding a .3 acre lot there. Homes in McLean may be zoned for higher-ranked schools, but FCPS has more fiscal issues than APS. I don't think you can really go wrong unless you build something awful that no one else would ever want to buy.

FCPS have less issues because the good schools don't have to support the lower SES that require a lot of public assistance.

FCPS also has a lot of programs that exceed APS's offerings. FCPS has AAP, GT, IB, AP and STEM Academies where as APS only has AP and IB.

Any objective comparison of FCPS and APS would acknowledge that FCPS has more funding challenges than APS right now. APS may have a higher percentage of FARMS students than FCPS, but it spends more per student than FCPS and has lower class sizes. That's the type of stuff you can do when you have lots of tax-paying residents without children. In addition, the demographics in APS are becoming more affluent, whereas the FARMS population in FCPS is growing. Not to mention that AAP is the successor to GT, so you're double-dipping to suggest they are separate programs in FCPS. APS also has HB Woodlawn, which has no equivalent in FCPS.

I'm not trying to turn this thread into another general debate about the relative merits of APS and FCPS, but simply to identify one reason why this part of North Arlington is likely to remain prime real estate, even if it's not as walkable as Clarendon or the schools aren't quite as highly rated as some in FCPS. Don't worry, others will still want to live in the Marshall district.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The "bubble" risk is endemic to NoVa, but if you put this aside it's as good an area as any (and very hot this year). Homes in Arlington closer to the Orange Line may be trendier for those who want to walk everywhere, but good luck finding a .3 acre lot there. Homes in McLean may be zoned for higher-ranked schools, but FCPS has more fiscal issues than APS. I don't think you can really go wrong unless you build something awful that no one else would ever want to buy.

FCPS have less issues because the good schools don't have to support the lower SES that require a lot of public assistance.

FCPS also has a lot of programs that exceed APS's offerings. FCPS has AAP, GT, IB, AP and STEM Academies where as APS only has AP and IB.

Any objective comparison of FCPS and APS would acknowledge that FCPS has more funding challenges than APS right now. APS may have a higher percentage of FARMS students than FCPS, but it spends more per student than FCPS and has lower class sizes. That's the type of stuff you can do when you have lots of tax-paying residents without children. In addition, the demographics in APS are becoming more affluent, whereas the FARMS population in FCPS is growing. Not to mention that AAP is the successor to GT, so you're double-dipping to suggest they are separate programs in FCPS. APS also has HB Woodlawn, which has no equivalent in FCPS.

I'm not trying to turn this thread into another general debate about the relative merits of APS and FCPS, but simply to identify one reason why this part of North Arlington is likely to remain prime real estate, even if it's not as walkable as Clarendon[b] or the schools aren't quite as highly rated as some in FCPS. Don't worry, others will still want to live in the Marshall district.

Walkability isn't really a universally desired feature of real estate. It has niche appeal, certainly, but you make it sound like families would prefer Clarendon. They don't.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The "bubble" risk is endemic to NoVa, but if you put this aside it's as good an area as any (and very hot this year). Homes in Arlington closer to the Orange Line may be trendier for those who want to walk everywhere, but good luck finding a .3 acre lot there. Homes in McLean may be zoned for higher-ranked schools, but FCPS has more fiscal issues than APS. I don't think you can really go wrong unless you build something awful that no one else would ever want to buy.

FCPS have less issues because the good schools don't have to support the lower SES that require a lot of public assistance.

FCPS also has a lot of programs that exceed APS's offerings. FCPS has AAP, GT, IB, AP and STEM Academies where as APS only has AP and IB.

Any objective comparison of FCPS and APS would acknowledge that FCPS has more funding challenges than APS right now. APS may have a higher percentage of FARMS students than FCPS, but it spends more per student than FCPS and has lower class sizes. That's the type of stuff you can do when you have lots of tax-paying residents without children. In addition, the demographics in APS are becoming more affluent, whereas the FARMS population in FCPS is growing. Not to mention that AAP is the successor to GT, so you're double-dipping to suggest they are separate programs in FCPS. APS also has HB Woodlawn, which has no equivalent in FCPS.

I'm not trying to turn this thread into another general debate about the relative merits of APS and FCPS, but simply to identify one reason why this part of North Arlington is likely to remain prime real estate, even if it's not as walkable as Clarendon or the schools aren't quite as highly rated as some in FCPS. Don't worry, others will still want to live in the Marshall district.

FCPS are higher ranked and superior in every measure and standing. Get over it.