does anyone think it is smart to declare economic war on China on Romney's first day in office?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I do business in China. China is the US's 3rd largest destination for exporting goods, after Canada and Mexico. Do we really want to get into a trade war with one of the US's best customers?

Also the trade imbalance is already shifting and will continue to shift. The reason is that labor costs in China are skyrocketing due to a declining number of people entering the workforce (effects of the 1-child policy) and demands for rising wages as the cost of living increases. The tipping point is predicted to be in 2015, when manufacturing most goods in China and shipping them to the US will cost more than just making them in the US.

As for environmental conditions in China, the Chinese realize this and they are rapidly combating it. Do you think they like all the smog and poisoning problems? Of course not.

I'm pretty sure Romney is doing this as a pure vote-getter. He's smart enough to know what a vital trade partner China is for the US.

This is interesting. Where are you getting your information about predictions for 2015? Can you give us some links.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I do business in China. China is the US's 3rd largest destination for exporting goods, after Canada and Mexico. Do we really want to get into a trade war with one of the US's best customers?

Also the trade imbalance is already shifting and will continue to shift. The reason is that labor costs in China are skyrocketing due to a declining number of people entering the workforce (effects of the 1-child policy) and demands for rising wages as the cost of living increases. The tipping point is predicted to be in 2015, when manufacturing most goods in China and shipping them to the US will cost more than just making them in the US.

As for environmental conditions in China, the Chinese realize this and they are rapidly combating it. Do you think they like all the smog and poisoning problems? Of course not.

I'm pretty sure Romney is doing this as a pure vote-getter. He's smart enough to know what a vital trade partner China is for the US.

This is interesting. Where are you getting your information about predictions for 2015? Can you give us some links.

I think I read it in Economist, but there are plenty of other sources saying basially the same thing. Here's one:
http://www.manufacturing-executive.com/message/3173

Just google for "china labor costs tipping point"

[Anonymous]

He did not say he was going to declare economic war. He said he was going to work with china to get them to stop manipulating the RMD. He should have also said he was going to try to work with them on grey market and outright copyright products. If they don't cooperate, he can control at the borders.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:He did not say he was going to declare economic war. He said he was going to work with china to get them to stop manipulating the RMD. He should have also said he was going to try to work with them on grey market and outright copyright products. If they don't cooperate, he can control at the borders.

I'm the PP who does business in China. The US is already pushing hard on the IP (copyright) side of things. It's slow going, but progress is being made. The current administration isn't really sitting back in this area.

As for manipulation of the RMB, the Chinese government has been slowly loosening it, and meanwhile the US gov't has been letting the dollar weaken to improve exports. It's unrealistic to think China would let their currency free-float overnight -- it would be disastrous for the entire world economy if they did. It's going to take a gradual loosening, which they are doing, to not cause major problems.

Personally, I think China will become what Japan is now, in a few years. I rememeber 10-20 years ago when everyone was worried about Japanese products invading the US etc. We sort of ended up at some type of equilibrium that benefited both sides.

[Anonymous]

In a few decades China will lose its cheap labor force. The elderly outnumber the young and there is not enough to replace them

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:In a few decades China will lose its cheap labor force. The elderly outnumber the young and there is not enough to replace them

The more immediate problem, the one which is causing jobs to actually come back home, is wage inflation. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/12/us-china-economy-inflation-analysis-idUSTRE80B0DE20120112

[Anonymous]

Romney said he would declare China a currency manipulator and impose economic sanctions against China on his first day in office. Sounds like prompt economic warfare to me.

[Anonymous]

Economic "war" goes two ways. If USA throws down tariffs or other barriers to business with China, China will respond in kind. China holds tons and tons of US debt and maybe they don't buy the next time we need to sell a bunch of Treasuries. We need China & they need us. Lots of US businesses that do business in China would be harmed in a trade war. China's fixing of their currency has been an issue for decades & there is not a quick fix. It is a real issue but will not be solved in anyone's first day in office & to say as much is typical political bluster.

Romney is going to start actual wars with Syria & Iran --maybe throw Libya in the mix too depending on how he's feeling.

[Anonymous]

Here is a more balanced description of China's currency situation: http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/03/chinas-currency

[Anonymous]

Romney says that lack of certainty is the biggest obstacle to job growth. Exactly how does saying one thing yesterday something else today, and tomorrow perhaps back to yesterday or maybe something totally new generate certainty?

On what basis can we answer OP's question when Romney's statements are the only evidence we have and they are totally unreliable?