Should We Be Scared--Housing Prices Tied to the Federal Government?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The only thing you can do is make sure you're buying a house you want to stay in for a good, long time.

^^ITA.

OP, if this is your forever home (and as PP said you can afford it on one salary or savings), then go for it. If this is above your means and you may relocate, then wait for the bottom because it may come sooner than January.

I agree that sequestering won't happen, however Greece is going to default in a few months and Romney, likely to win shortly after that, will make large spending cuts everywhere. Not just defense. Then DC will hit rock bottom.

LOL.

Not likely.

Even if somehow how does manage to pull that rabbit out of the hat, Congress won't go along.

If Greece goes under and the economy sinks further, no one is getting re-elected, guaranteed.

hahahahahahahahaha...no one and I really mean NO ONE cares about Greece, except the Greeks. EU will have to set them adrift. And they will. Greece has already gone under, essentially. On the domestic front, you are completely deluded if you think southern Christians will vote for a Mormon. They have no love for Obama--but Mittens is like a space alien to them. Without the southern Christian vote, no one gets elected in this country. And sequestration? Never. It is the sacred cow to all senators, congressman and governors. You are funny, though.

[Anonymous]

Well let's see. DC has been on a never ending rise since the CIVIL WAR. Nothing, no political or financial force has ever made it come anywhere close to rock bottom. But you think the fall of Greece will do it? Maybe if this were 400 B.C.E. but otherwise? Yeah, no.

[Anonymous]

Sequestration aside -- the federal government isn't getting any bigger. don't you think that bodes badly for home prices? I do,I think...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Sequestration aside -- the federal government isn't getting any bigger. don't you think that bodes badly for home prices? I do,I think...

I agree. Not that the gov isn't getting bigger- but that it really can't afford to get much bigger that would continue to support the increased in housing prices. I look at these homes in Arlington and Alexandria- lived in both- and genuinely wonder how much higher can that teeny colonial go. $2mil, 3mil, 5mil for a 4bdrm 3bth colonial? Unlikely.
People have been doting on the "wonderful" "untouched" DC economy for a long time. It only seems likely a bubble is about to pop.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Well let's see. DC has been on a never ending rise since the CIVIL WAR. Nothing, no political or financial force has ever made it come anywhere close to rock bottom. But you think the fall of Greece will do it? Maybe if this were 400 B.C.E. but otherwise? Yeah, no.

LOL. You know what the Treasury has been up to? Buying Euros.

When Greece falls, Germany is out a LOT of money so are several of the European banks and Citi Bank.

It will reverberate here.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Well let's see. DC has been on a never ending rise since the CIVIL WAR. Nothing, no political or financial force has ever made it come anywhere close to rock bottom. But you think the fall of Greece will do it? Maybe if this were 400 B.C.E. but otherwise? Yeah, no.

I'm sure Cleveland, Detroit, and Baltimore thought the same thing. A $1 can now buy you a home in Detroit.

[Anonymous]

This is a very interesting discussion!

To the OP:

What matters most is that you love the house, and can afford to pay for it. Even if the value dipped over the next 10 years, unless you are forced to sell you will still be ok. Your location will remain great, and even if you have to move, you will have an easy time finding renters for this location, if you don't overextend yourself.

[Anonymous]

"Sequestration aside -- the federal government isn't getting any bigger. don't you think that bodes badly for home prices? I do,I think... "

True, the government isn't getting any bigger, but something like 40% of the workforce will be retiring in the not so distant future, which will allow for some painless workforce adjustments. Not all agency adjustments will be painless, such as defense, but many will.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Well let's see. DC has been on a never ending rise since the CIVIL WAR. Nothing, no political or financial force has ever made it come anywhere close to rock bottom. But you think the fall of Greece will do it? Maybe if this were 400 B.C.E. but otherwise? Yeah, no.

I'm sure Cleveland, Detroit, and Baltimore thought the same thing. A $1 can now buy you a home in Detroit.

Totally different scenario to Detroit, which started contracting as soon as the post-war period when everything else was booming.

[Anonymous]

Close-in will be fine. We bought first in NW and saw zero decline in value during the housing boom. We are in Clarendon neighborhood now and I also think it is sheltered given location, proximity to DC, great public schools walkability. There is also the IT corridor up route 7.

No foreclosures last go around in either neighborhood and I doubt it will happen....of it does they will be mostly felt in the outer suburbs like last time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote: We'll see 180,000 jobs created on Friday.

This may very well be true but these are low income jobs.
I know, I work a company that creates a lot of them.

You are going to start seeing a decline in high-income, inflated contractor salaries that will have an impact in this area.
That being said the lawyers and lobbyists aren't going anywhere.

[Anonymous]

OP here. 15:18, It's actually not a forever home. It has four bedrooms, but two are up, one is in basement (I wouldn't really even call it a bedroom) and master is on main. I don't think it'll work when we have baby number 3 in the next 5 years or so.

I've been waiting for this damned bubble to pop for 7 years. I wonder if perhaps it's not a bubble. So confused!

[Anonymous]

I wouldn't buy a $1.4 million 5-year home. When you sell, your equity will be eaten by realtor commissions. Keep saving and looking for a home with the ideal layout for your desired family size.

[Anonymous]

I've been waiting for this damned bubble to pop for 7 years. I wonder if perhaps it's not a bubble. So confused!

What bubble there was here popped in October 2008. You missed it.

[Anonymous]

I would not buy if you are only planning to live in the house for 5 years or so. That does not make sense to me.