RE Market Crystal Ball

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Another question: are they dropping the conforming loan limit soon? That will drop houses prices.

Have seen many houses in my neighborhood go under contract then have the deal fall through.

Short answer: no. If anything, they'll likely increase again.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:$600k houses are dumps in DC. House prices are out of line with rents. I rent a house in the JKLM for $2500/month. Buying a house would cost so much more. I also can't build equity in a falling market. House price are still unrealistic.

A rent of $2500 per month on a $600k house (the mortgage on which would be only about $480,000) doesn't sound out-of-line to me at all.

What the hell is the JKLM and why would you assume anyone would recognize that acronym?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:$600k houses are dumps in DC. House prices are out of line with rents. I rent a house in the JKLM for $2500/month. Buying a house would cost so much more. I also can't build equity in a falling market. House price are still unrealistic.

A rent of $2500 per month on a $600k house (the mortgage on which would be only about $480,000) doesn't sound out-of-line to me at all.

What the hell is the JKLM and why would you assume anyone would recognize that acronym?

JKLM are the good public schools in the District. If you have school aged children in DC, you know this acronym. The houses in these neighborhood are not $600k.

[Anonymous]

Agree with PP - Wtf is JKLMM?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Agree with PP - Wtf is JKLMM?

If you want to comment intelligently on real estate in DC on a forum like DCUM, you'd should know school districts--because like every other real estate market, the quality of schools in DC greatly affect home prices. JKLMM= Janey, Key, Lafayette, Murch, Mann. These are considered the top public elementary schools in DC. They are all located in expensive neighborhoods in NW DC. That's why a home that costs $600K in a JKLMM district, which is on the low end, will probably maintain its price--demand to get into these neighborhoods is high and the supply of these "entry-level" homes is relatively low. Homes that go for $1M or more in these neighborhoods are more likely to drop in price--demand is lower at this price point and the supply is relatively stable.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:$600k houses are dumps in DC. House prices are out of line with rents. I rent a house in the JKLM for $2500/month. Buying a house would cost so much more. I also can't build equity in a falling market. House price are still unrealistic.

A rent of $2500 per month on a $600k house (the mortgage on which would be only about $480,000) doesn't sound out-of-line to me at all.

What the hell is the JKLM and why would you assume anyone would recognize that acronym?

When factoring taxes, a $480k mortgage is $3k/month. This doesn't take into account the regular maintenance plus the inevitable expenses accrued from buying some dump. Love your realtor math; I wish it reflected reality. 20% down payment is fairly unusual around here unless there's family money or you were fortunate enough to move into the area before the bubble went full force. Most new buyers I've spoken to go for the FHA loan (3%), while the established folks are relying on some sucker to buy their old place. Besides, I double-dog-dare you to find a single family home in NW DC that can fit a family of four for $600k. Most halfway reasonable houses are in the mid $700k price range (that's a minimum expense of $3.5k/month, but most likely $4k+).

There is a fundamental disconnect between incomes and risk, and that's reflected in the inability of banks to dump their crappy mortgages on anyone other than Fannie and Freddie, which is basically a clearinghouse for artificial money supply generated by the Fed. Barring some drastic change in this risk issue, the secondary debt market for mortgages will continue to be defunct, with a likely convergence on house prices to somewhere south of where they are right now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Agree with PP - Wtf is JKLMM?

If you want to comment intelligently on real estate in DC on a forum like DCUM, you'd should know school districts--because like every other real estate market, the quality of schools in DC greatly affect home prices. JKLMM= Janey, Key, Lafayette, Murch, Mann. These are considered the top public elementary schools in DC. They are all located in expensive neighborhoods in NW DC. That's why a home that costs $600K in a JKLMM district, which is on the low end, will probably maintain its price--demand to get into these neighborhoods is high and the supply of these "entry-level" homes is relatively low. Homes that go for $1M or more in these neighborhoods are more likely to drop in price--demand is lower at this price point and the supply is relatively stable.

Except, people don't buy for elementary schools. They buy for middles and high schools.

If YOU want to comment intelligently don't use obscure acronyms and shorthand and huff that we don't know what you're prattling on about.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:$600k houses are dumps in DC. House prices are out of line with rents. I rent a house in the JKLM for $2500/month. Buying a house would cost so much more. I also can't build equity in a falling market. House price are still unrealistic.

A rent of $2500 per month on a $600k house (the mortgage on which would be only about $480,000) doesn't sound out-of-line to me at all.

What the hell is the JKLM and why would you assume anyone would recognize that acronym?

When factoring taxes, a $480k mortgage is $3k/month. This doesn't take into account the regular maintenance plus the inevitable expenses accrued from buying some dump. Love your realtor math; I wish it reflected reality. 20% down payment is fairly unusual around here unless there's family money or you were fortunate enough to move into the area before the bubble went full force. Most new buyers I've spoken to go for the FHA loan (3%), while the established folks are relying on some sucker to buy their old place. Besides, I double-dog-dare you to find a single family home in NW DC that can fit a family of four for $600k. Most halfway reasonable houses are in the mid $700k price range (that's a minimum expense of $3.5k/month, but most likely $4k+).


No, it's not. Maybe $2,800 ($2,300 P&I at an interest rate of 4 percent). And when you rent your house you get to depreciate it, so $2,500 is fully in line with a mortgage.

Most people who are buying $600,000 homes have moved up and had the 20 percent downpayment, FWIW.

And I don't understand why you're double-dog daring me to go off on your tangent.

There is a fundamental disconnect between incomes and risk, and that's reflected in the inability of banks to dump their crappy mortgages on anyone other than Fannie and Freddie, which is basically a clearinghouse for artificial money supply generated by the Fed. Barring some drastic change in this risk issue, the secondary debt market for mortgages will continue to be defunct, with a likely convergence on house prices to somewhere south of where they are right now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Agree with PP - Wtf is JKLMM?

If you want to comment intelligently on real estate in DC on a forum like DCUM, you'd should know school districts--because like every other real estate market, the quality of schools in DC greatly affect home prices. JKLMM= Janey, Key, Lafayette, Murch, Mann. These are considered the top public elementary schools in DC. They are all located in expensive neighborhoods in NW DC. That's why a home that costs $600K in a JKLMM district, which is on the low end, will probably maintain its price--demand to get into these neighborhoods is high and the supply of these "entry-level" homes is relatively low. Homes that go for $1M or more in these neighborhoods are more likely to drop in price--demand is lower at this price point and the supply is relatively stable.

Except, people don't buy for elementary schools. They buy for middles and high schools.

If YOU want to comment intelligently don't use obscure acronyms and shorthand and huff that we don't know what you're prattling on about.

New poster here - I clicked on this topic to discuss DC real estate but how can we when people are called JKLMM an obscure acronym? The PP isn't prattling on. She's saying the facts.

Yes, people DO buy houses in the JKLMM areas for the elementary schools. Some hope that Deal and Wilson work out for their kid but most are open to going private by then.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Agree with PP - Wtf is JKLMM?

If you want to comment intelligently on real estate in DC on a forum like DCUM, you'd should know school districts--because like every other real estate market, the quality of schools in DC greatly affect home prices. JKLMM= Janey, Key, Lafayette, Murch, Mann. These are considered the top public elementary schools in DC. They are all located in expensive neighborhoods in NW DC. That's why a home that costs $600K in a JKLMM district, which is on the low end, will probably maintain its price--demand to get into these neighborhoods is high and the supply of these "entry-level" homes is relatively low. Homes that go for $1M or more in these neighborhoods are more likely to drop in price--demand is lower at this price point and the supply is relatively stable.

Except, people don't buy for elementary schools. They buy for middles and high schools.

If YOU want to comment intelligently don't use obscure acronyms and shorthand and huff that we don't know what you're prattling on about.

New poster here - I clicked on this topic to discuss DC real estate but how can we when people are called JKLMM an obscure acronym? The PP isn't prattling on. She's saying the facts.

Yes, people DO buy houses in the JKLMM areas for the elementary schools. Some hope that Deal and Wilson work out for their kid but most are open to going private by then.

I detect a sock puppet.

[Anonymous]

Just because I agreed with the JKLMM poster doesn't make me a sock puppet. I'm annoyed that someone stating a fact about dc real estate on DC Urban Moms is insulted by people who obviously don't live in DC and don't know DC real estate.

[Anonymous]

22:49 here. I did not post 7:32.

I am a real estate junkie, as are several people on this forum, so I don't see how a few well-informed posters who AGREE should suggest sock puppet.

If you learned more about the real estate market in DC, then you'd probably agree with us, too.

BTW, another nugget of information for you: a lot of families move for good elementary schools in NWDC (JKLMM) with the understanding that they will pay for private school for middle and high school years.

[Anonymous]

There is more than one poster using the JKLM acronym. I am one of them. I apologize for assuming that others would know this acronym. I work in the tech sector, which is filled with acronyms and I agree they are annoying if you do not know them. My apologies. It is a widely used acronym on the public and private school areas of the DCUM forum.

If you are into real estate, you can't deny the fact that public schools are an important factor for house buyers. I think it is a greater concern for DC residents because you can save a pretty penny by sending your children to the public elementary schools. But most send private for middle and high school or move out of DC. I know of 3 neighbors who moved out of DC to MD because of middle schools.

[Anonymous]

Most DC area houses are listed much too high. Big spreads b/t the buyer and seller. Plus DC is one of the last areas in the U.S. for the housing to drop 10-20% from peak.

Half the sellers here have a poorly maintained house that they try to price like a renovated one. And the other half the time, the seller tries to list at peak price (2005-2007). In general sellers are just hoping for that one dumb buyer not to look at comps or know the price of a kitchen renovation.