early results leaning to an Orange win in the special election

[Anonymous]

Look, you are obviously are quite passionate about this, and I'm on a phone, so can't respond in depth, so let's just agree to disagree. Nothing you've said (encouraging others to vote, explaining IRV, etc, etc...) are contingent on my voting. Actually, I did my microscopically small part weeks ago by urging folks to support the "front-runner". In hindsight, I would've supported Mara given Biddle's collapse at the end.

But having seen the returns, I have no qualms about not having wasted time voting. This isn't the DC Lottery where "You gotta play to win". And I'm not "All The Voters Who Didn't Show Up Today", so my vote meant nothing. Collective action problem, and such, &tc...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
That's the reason I never even bothered voting today. Orange was always going to be the winner unless reformers coalesced around a single candidate. I couldn't have cared less if that was Mara, Weaver, or Biddle. But since that didn't happen, there was no point in even showing up. Checkmate V.O.

No, forfeit you.

If you are simply going to sit around and wait for things to happen, you will always be disappointed. If you want things to be different, you have to do something about it. You will never be on the winning side of an election if you don't vote.

And yet, in the real world adults live in, not voting is a rational act in the face of a dysfunctional system. If DC had IRV, or there were a single reform candidate rather than 3-4 perhaps more people voting would have made a difference. There's no evidence a higher turnout would have done anything to budge the final percentages.

As far as *my* personal vote making a difference...it makes about the same difference as clapping and shouting "I do believe in fairies!"

How is it rational? You lose your influence and no one even notices your absence, so you aren't making a statement. Maybe there are thousands of people who think just like you. After all, how many people voted and how many are registered?

Wait, lose influence and no one knows my absence? How on Earth is that different from my having shown up and voted?

As far as, "What if everyone is staying home out of similar motivation?" They're not, they're staying home because they don't care. My voting doesn't change that.

I find it fascinating how not voting seems to offend folks on almost an aesthetic level. It's certainly not rational.

[Anonymous]

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:...
The day that I chose to support Bryan Weaver I knew that he had a slim at best chance of winning. But, I was looking to the long term. I was looking to be part of a reform movement that can eventually change how politics in the District works. You have to start somewhere and I chose to start with Bryan Weaver. The day that I handed Weaver's campaign manager a check for $500.00, I told him that I believed Orange would win. But, I said that I saw this election as one step. Tomorrow I will start planning the next step. Maybe that step will fail and I will have to work on the third step. But, maybe it won't fail. Either way, you can't win if you don't enter the game.

A few details to add to Jeff's comments:
Orange beat Mara by only around 1100 votes. Biddle, Weaver, and Lopez got about 17600 in total. Orange will be up again in 2012. He will probably have a primary opponent, and if he manages to win the primary, he will likely face Mara again, but this time essentially head to head. If we on this site are at all representative, a lot of those who vote against hm in the primary will switch to Mara. Orange may suffer the fate of Biddle -- incumbency may hurt more than it helps.

But he'll have 18 months to answer for instead of three.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
jsteele wrote:
Anonymous wrote:

That's the reason I never even bothered voting today. Orange was always going to be the winner unless reformers coalesced around a single candidate. I couldn't have cared less if that was Mara, Weaver, or Biddle. But since that didn't happen, there was no point in even showing up. Checkmate V.O.

No, forfeit you.

If you are simply going to sit around and wait for things to happen, you will always be disappointed. If you want things to be different, you have to do something about it. You will never be on the winning side of an election if you don't vote.

And yet, in the real world adults live in, not voting is a rational act in the face of a dysfunctional system. If DC had IRV, or there were a single reform candidate rather than 3-4 perhaps more people voting would have made a difference. There's no evidence a higher turnout would have done anything to budge the final percentages.

As far as *my* personal vote making a difference...it makes about the same difference as clapping and shouting "I do believe in fairies!"

How is it rational? You lose your influence and no one even notices your absence, so you aren't making a statement. Maybe there are thousands of people who think just like you. After all, how many people voted and how many are registered?

Wait, lose influence and no one knows my absence? How on Earth is that different from my having shown up and voted?

As far as, "What if everyone is staying home out of similar motivation?" They're not, they're staying home because they don't care. My voting doesn't change that.

I find it fascinating how not voting seems to offend folks on almost an aesthetic level. It's certainly not rational.

\

If you don't bvote, you forfeit your right to come back here and bitch about DC government and politics. You can't complain about these things if you don't care enough to vote.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If you don't bvote, you forfeit your right to come back here and bitch about DC government and politics. You can't complain about these things if you don't care enough to vote.

Well, it *is* Jeff's forum, so I suppose he could ban me for not voting--but in general, complaining is not contingent on voting. How about if I pretend that I voted? Would that satisfy everyone? Given that pretending I voted would have the same impact?

Boy, voting yesterday felt *great*!! Got a sticker and everything. Shame about Orange, tho. Democracy, FTW!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My personal favorite Vince Orange moment:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIrJfyT8p3I&sns=em

Thank you for this. I wish it would go viral.

[jsteele]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If you don't bvote, you forfeit your right to come back here and bitch about DC government and politics. You can't complain about these things if you don't care enough to vote.

Well, it *is* Jeff's forum, so I suppose he could ban me for not voting--but in general, complaining is not contingent on voting. How about if I pretend that I voted? Would that satisfy everyone? Given that pretending I voted would have the same impact?

Boy, voting yesterday felt *great*!! Got a sticker and everything. Shame about Orange, tho. Democracy, FTW!

I won't ban you, but I won't let you forget it. You really do have no right to complain about DC politics if you don't take the simple step of voting. It's not like voting would have required standing in long lines or a huge time investment. When I voted, there was only one other voter in the polling place. I was in and out in less than 5 minutes.

It is true that the impact of a single vote is limited. However, the collective impact of not voting is greater. Do you recycle? You personally don't produce enough trash to cause a problem. Why bother? Do you cover your mouth when you sneeze? As in individual, you produce very few germs. It's not like people would stop getting sick just because you cover your mouth, so why bother? The list of examples could go on and on. Sometimes you have to look at the bigger picture.

[Anonymous]

Do you recycle? You personally don't produce enough trash to cause a problem. Why bother? Do you cover your mouth when you sneeze? As in individual, you produce very few germs.

Sure I recycle. Because it's as easy or easier than throwing things away. In fact, I save garbage bags. And it makes me feel good.

I cover my mouth (and nose) when I sneeze because--while it won't cure the common cold forever--it's a pretty effective way to prevent my DW and DD from getting my cold.

And I take my kid out of school early to go to the swimming pool instead of casting a meaningless ballot when it's obvious the reform vote is splintered into factions. Had a great time.

In fact, I'd argue, based on my previous voting experiences, there's a psychological cost to voting: you're basically inordinately invested in the outcome--an outcome over which you have no real impact. It's amazingly frustrating!

I voted against George W Bush twice while in DC, and it was the most frustrating experience I've ever had. Targeted apathy is quite rational.

I'll make a deal with you right now: in the election a year hence, I'll do my penance by contributing to whomever Orange is running against in both the Democratic primary and the general election. $50 a pop.

I'll probably even vote!

[jsteele]

Anonymous wrote:I'll probably even vote!

Just to show the impact of collective apathy, in the November General Election, David Hedgepeth received 6,363 votes running against Mary Cheh. Yesterday, Mara received only 3,825 votes in Ward 3. Mara lost by just over 1,000 votes citywide. Hedgepeth's chances of wining were far worse than Mara's, but a lot more voters chose to cast useless votes for him.

I'm sure the math for Biddle, comparing his votes to Cheh's (Cheh endorsed Biddle), is even worse.

You chose not to vote because you believed Orange would win. Therefore, you did your little part in making his victory a reality. You seem to be very proud of your contribution. So I hope you will enjoy your new At-Large Councilmember.

[Anonymous]

What if I didn't vote because I expected Orange to win and I'm just fine with that, and it turned out I was right. Can I complain then?

[jsteele]

Anonymous wrote:What if I didn't vote because I expected Orange to win and I'm just fine with that, and it turned out I was right. Can I complain then?

You can complain but will be ignored due to your questionable taste in candidates.

[Anonymous]

Therefore, you did your little part in making his victory a reality.

This is only true if, had I voted, an Orange victory would have been slightly less likely. It would not have been. His election would've been exactly as likely. You don't almost get elected. That's the problem with "first past the post." Your beef isn't with me, it's with "All The People Who Didn't Vote". Buy a classified in the Post and upbraid them collectively.

I hope you will enjoy your new At-Large Councilmember.

I care less than I would've had I voted.

[jsteele]

Anonymous wrote:
This is only true if, had I voted, an Orange victory would have been slightly less likely. It would not have been. His election would've been exactly as likely. You don't almost get elected. That's the problem with "first past the post." Your beef isn't with me, it's with "All The People Who Didn't Vote". Buy a classified in the Post and upbraid them collectively.

I'll ask again since you didn't answer the first time. If your vote is meaningless, aren't all of our votes meaningless? And, if our votes are meaningless, why do we bother to have elections? Wouldn't it just be much easier to ask you who is going to win and then we can all stay home and watch television?

[Anonymous]

Ok, Jeff. I think we're in danger of just going back and forth. I'll leave you with this, which I thought was an interesting take on the issue at least:

http://www.lewrockwell.com/mcelroy/mcelroy37.html

[Anonymous]

Much as I share the feeling that we basically get the candidates that the establishment chooses, I also believe that the knowledge that any particular official can be voted out keeps things from being much worse. Unless a reasonable percentage of us take the trouble to express ourselves in the voting booth, we lose that small bit of leverage.