How much does the economy affect private school admissions?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't know about this area, but the Great Financial Crisis killed private schools in the Philadelphia Area, where I grew up, and which historically has very high rates of private school attendance. Whereas in many areas, private schools are reserved for the affluent, lower cost independent schools were much more common around there. Schools went from four classes per grade down to one, and enrollment tanked. Many schools closed.

Because of the k-shaped economy, my guess is the schools hardest hit will be the lower cost ones more populated by the middle to upper-middle class or those that have extremely high percentages of students on aid (50%+).

The Great Recession impacted enrollment numbers at the Baltimore privates and some still haven't returned to their old sizes. No school closed, all are doing fine. But enrollment numbers did drop, and noticeably at some schools (down by 200 for example). Most of the bleeding was elementary and middle schools. It was less people withdrawing students but stopping enrolling their kids. At the same time, inflation in school fees was still going up substantially and outpacing income growth and that is the real reason for why some schools haven't returned to their pre 2008 sizes.

My observation of the private school world today is that most private schools now cater entirely to the top 1-2% (compared to the top 10% 20 years ago) and they are in a position to weather any localized recessions better. To see the real impact of recessions you need to look at parochial schools. DOGE in DC isn't impacting most of the privates because most parents aren't government employees and that's been the case for a long time.

[Anonymous]

The health of the economy has a huge impact on private schools. The way an admissions director described it for me in broad terms is that 20% of parents can easily afford the tuition, 60% can afford it but only after making some sacrifices, and 20% can't afford the sticker price and therefore need financial aid to make up the difference. And then there are other related factors, the fertility rate being one and lingering effects of COVID being another. The DMV is nowhere near the replacement rate, i.e. fewer children are being born, a fact compounded in 2021 when 500,000 fewer babies were born in the US than each of the years immediately prior. These are all contributing factors in why a few area privates have closed (e,g. Feynman) or have come close to closing (e.g. SSFS).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I know the economy hasn't fallen off a cliff yet but in the past when we've gone into a recession is there a marked drop in private school enrollment or applications? Or are the families sending their kids to these schools insulated enough that they can keep their kids in school through bumpy economic patches?

2008 saw some turnover at a lot of schools.

There is always a little bit of economic turnover but it was notable in 2008

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't know about this area, but the Great Financial Crisis killed private schools in the Philadelphia Area, where I grew up, and which historically has very high rates of private school attendance. Whereas in many areas, private schools are reserved for the affluent, lower cost independent schools were much more common around there. Schools went from four classes per grade down to one, and enrollment tanked. Many schools closed.

Because of the k-shaped economy, my guess is the schools hardest hit will be the lower cost ones more populated by the middle to upper-middle class or those that have extremely high percentages of students on aid (50%+).

The Great Recession impacted enrollment numbers at the Baltimore privates and some still haven't returned to their old sizes. No school closed, all are doing fine. But enrollment numbers did drop, and noticeably at some schools (down by 200 for example). Most of the bleeding was elementary and middle schools. It was less people withdrawing students but stopping enrolling their kids. At the same time, inflation in school fees was still going up substantially and outpacing income growth and that is the real reason for why some schools haven't returned to their pre 2008 sizes.

My observation of the private school world today is that most private schools now cater entirely to the top 1-2% (compared to the top 10% 20 years ago) and they are in a position to weather any localized recessions better. To see the real impact of recessions you need to look at parochial schools. DOGE in DC isn't impacting most of the privates because most parents aren't government employees and that's been the case for a long time.

What do you mean no school closed? Off the top of my head Cardinal Gibbons, Seton Keough, and IND all closed after struggling through the crisis and never recovering in numbers.

[Anonymous]

OP, either you are playing chess and trying to eliminate your child’s competition next admissions season or you are the type that seeks pleasure in other people’s downfall. Which one is it?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:OP, either you are playing chess and trying to eliminate your child’s competition next admissions season or you are the type that seeks pleasure in other people’s downfall. Which one is it?

Or they could just be curious because they don't want their kid to go to a school that may fold quickly...

[Anonymous]

I used to work at a private school, but do education consulting now.

Some schools are going to hurt, but the ones most in demand with plenty of high net worth families will be fine.

In my experience, a lot of consultants are having trouble filling their rosters if they cater to families that are middle class, but I am a higher end bracket in terms of the families I advise who often have trust funds and am full and can't take any more clients.

[Anonymous]

We’re at Gilman (Baltimore), and they have actively done contingency planning (not sure what— could the endowment temporarily support more aid?) regarding Hopkins when jt looked like there might be massive layoffs.

I suspect Gilman has a lot of the families that are dual professionals and able to afford the tuition with some sacrifices while steadily employed. Certainly if mine or my partner’s income seemed uncertain, we’d have given public school more consideration.

[Anonymous]

Small, non-selective, independent private K-8 schools are more likely to be impacted. I saw a few of these close in 2008-2009 in a different metro. That said, several similar privates in NoVA are still thriving in 2026. So it will vary from one metro to another.

The top 15-20 privates in metro DC are very unlikely to be affected. Catholic schools in metro DC are more affordable than many other privates and have solid demand, so they should be fine. Ditto for the other religiously affiliated schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Smaller privates will start to close.
Small religious ones will close for sure.
The wealth disparity will become greater.

By 2028 people will be lucky to have food.

This. People are sleeping. You will be lucky to have food or water. Pay attention to Peter Thiel.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Small, non-selective, independent private K-8 schools are more likely to be impacted. I saw a few of these close in 2008-2009 in a different metro. That said, several similar privates in NoVA are still thriving in 2026. So it will vary from one metro to another.

The top 15-20 privates in metro DC are very unlikely to be affected. Catholic schools in metro DC are more affordable than many other privates and have solid demand, so they should be fine. Ditto for the other religiously affiliated schools.

I think this is true. Schools like Christ Episcopal School (CES) in Rockville will suffer. They have already had quite a few families not renew their contracts this year. I predict more enrollment rockiness in the next year or so. Not sure they will be able to save the school again this time.

[Anonymous]

My spouse and I are both private school educators. For the last 15 years, as birth rates decline, and now with out-migration of tbe wealthy, we notice the families choosing private are those with special needs. Sometimes documented, sometimes not, but it’s clear they want something very specific from their school. Parents usually say it in a veiled way like:
-we just wanted a better fit for our child socially
-we prefer smaller class sizes
-my kid needs more time to run around and burn their energy
-we want our kid to get all of their HW done in study halls during the day so they can be in multiple travel sports
-we are willing to donate money for this cause that benefits my kid specifically

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP, either you are playing chess and trying to eliminate your child’s competition next admissions season or you are the type that seeks pleasure in other people’s downfall. Which one is it?

Or they could just be curious because they don't want their kid to go to a school that may fold quickly...

Ahh, I see you now…

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My spouse and I are both private school educators. For the last 15 years, as birth rates decline, and now with out-migration of tbe wealthy, we notice the families choosing private are those with special needs. Sometimes documented, sometimes not, but it’s clear they want something very specific from their school. Parents usually say it in a veiled way like:
-we just wanted a better fit for our child socially
-we prefer smaller class sizes
-my kid needs more time to run around and burn their energy
-we want our kid to get all of their HW done in study halls during the day so they can be in multiple travel sports
-we are willing to donate money for this cause that benefits my kid specifically

Lol ironically questions around those areas were the ones that came out of people giving advise on how to pick a school who (at least in my opinion) didn't actually understand the private school system.

For our family, we focused on the full life spectrum curriculum. How did Kindergarten ladder up into the high school curriculum. Where were opportunities to lean into talents as we saw them. What safety nets existed or help for when the kid struggled. Of course you can curate a similar education in DC's public system, but the private school admission process is easier than the DC lottery for the paths we thought worked best for our child.

I'm curious as to what schools you and your spouse work at, because I felt that parents asking questions around class size and doing HW at school in study hall's would gravitate towards particular schools...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The most expensive schools will be even less diverse as only the wealthy will be able to afford the tuition and annual tuition increases. Not that that is a bad thing for most wealthy families or, by extension, the schools. That’s where they are already headed.

It's this. Our small private has not been impacted over the past couple years with impacts via Trump/DOGE etc and in fact our wait list has increased. There will always be those who can afford it, but the impacts will be less diversity.

There is no "small private" in the DMV that is considered a top tier school and highly in demand with waitlists. Just so we're clear. The ones that are competitive - Sidwell, GDS, Prep, Holton, and that class of schools do not contain any small privates.