Market is changing in favor of buyers in N. Virginia

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:They were talking about this on WTOP today. How homes in the DMV market are sitting on average a certain amount of days longer than they did last year at this time. I wish I could remember how many days it was, but I don't. It was long enough that it caught my attention.

The problem with this is the total average includes condos, which are not selling well right now.

This statistic is only useful if you separate SFH, Townhomes, and condos…but the local news usually fails to do that.

[Anonymous]

Probably depends on the micro market. Im in 22207 and my neighbor just sold their teeny tiny house in three days.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's almost June, I swear this exact same question/observation is posted every year.

Hmmm. I wonder why?

Maybe because it is of huge interest, and it is different every year?

But it's really not that different every year. I think a lot of people are interested and want to identify trends in the real estate market, yes -- but they mistake normal seasonal cycles for trends and want to make big declarations about "the market".

The cycle of a summer slow-down DOES happen every year, regardless of interest rates, macro-economic conditions, etc. And every year, somebody declares the market is "slowing down" or "shifting in favor of buyers". But it is seasonality -- not a market-level decline in home values, not something influenced by a bigger national trend like lending issues/foreclosures/job losses, not a housing crash where "we're in a buyer's market now" and it's going to stick until macro-economic conditions change. Can the summer market slow down a little more or a little less because of interest rates or regional conditions? Sure. But the summer slow-down is a seasonal thing that happens no matter what.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's almost June, I swear this exact same question/observation is posted every year.

Hmmm. I wonder why?

Maybe because it is of huge interest, and it is different every year?

But it's really not that different every year. I think a lot of people are interested and want to identify trends in the real estate market, yes -- but they mistake normal seasonal cycles for trends and want to make big declarations about "the market".

The cycle of a summer slow-down DOES happen every year, regardless of interest rates, macro-economic conditions, etc. And every year, somebody declares the market is "slowing down" or "shifting in favor of buyers". But it is seasonality -- not a market-level decline in home values, not something influenced by a bigger national trend like lending issues/foreclosures/job losses, not a housing crash where "we're in a buyer's market now" and it's going to stick until macro-economic conditions change. Can the summer market slow down a little more or a little less because of interest rates or regional conditions? Sure. But the summer slow-down is a seasonal thing that happens no matter what.

So…scroll on by? Rather than crapping on a thread others are clearly interested in?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I heard NoVa is going fast at above list, but DC and MD are going below asking and taking a little longer to sell. So if you want a bargain, go to DC/MD.

Maryland is in a population decline as is Montgomery county so it makes sense demand would be lower.

Depending on what they do with their budget gap may be the nail in the coffin. They are already one of the highest taxed states, if they raise taxes again expect home prices to not move in a positive direction.

https://www.thesentinel.com/communities/montgomery-county-s-population-decline-raises-concerns-for-future/article_c8589c09-2b14-4d3c-9a8e-7f740d95a447.html

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I heard NoVa is going fast at above list, but DC and MD are going below asking and taking a little longer to sell. So if you want a bargain, go to DC/MD.

Maryland is in a population decline as is Montgomery county so it makes sense demand would be lower.

Depending on what they do with their budget gap may be the nail in the coffin. They are already one of the highest taxed states, if they raise taxes again expect home prices to not move in a positive direction.

https://www.thesentinel.com/communities/montgomery-county-s-population-decline-raises-concerns-for-future/article_c8589c09-2b14-4d3c-9a8e-7f740d95a447.html

Population decline doesn’t necessarily cause a decline in home prices, especially in an area with low supply.

NoVA has lost population over the past handful of years yet home values have risen.

It does have more of an impact on rental rates.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I heard NoVa is going fast at above list, but DC and MD are going below asking and taking a little longer to sell. So if you want a bargain, go to DC/MD.

Maryland is in a population decline as is Montgomery county so it makes sense demand would be lower.

Depending on what they do with their budget gap may be the nail in the coffin. They are already one of the highest taxed states, if they raise taxes again expect home prices to not move in a positive direction.

https://www.thesentinel.com/communities/montgomery-county-s-population-decline-raises-concerns-for-future/article_c8589c09-2b14-4d3c-9a8e-7f740d95a447.html

Arlington is in serious decline now also. Companies are no longer locating there (they’re going to Florida and Texas instead) and they just raised property and car taxes. Amazon will never build that shiny new building that was promised either. The continuing decline of commercial real estate revenue means that many more tax hikes are ahead especially with Arlington having a serious spending problem.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I heard NoVa is going fast at above list, but DC and MD are going below asking and taking a little longer to sell. So if you want a bargain, go to DC/MD.

Maryland is in a population decline as is Montgomery county so it makes sense demand would be lower.

Depending on what they do with their budget gap may be the nail in the coffin. They are already one of the highest taxed states, if they raise taxes again expect home prices to not move in a positive direction.

https://www.thesentinel.com/communities/montgomery-county-s-population-decline-raises-concerns-for-future/article_c8589c09-2b14-4d3c-9a8e-7f740d95a447.html

Arlington is in serious decline now also. Companies are no longer locating there (they’re going to Florida and Texas instead) and they just raised property and car taxes. Amazon will never build that shiny new building that was promised either. The continuing decline of commercial real estate revenue means that many more tax hikes are ahead especially with Arlington having a serious spending problem.

.

Uh, no.

Arlington lost population during covid. Both Virginia and Arlington are gaining residents.

https://usafacts.org/answers/is-the-population-growing-or-shrinking/county/arlington-county-va/

[Anonymous]

Keep dreaming. Good close in locations in Arlington, McLean, Bethesda and Chevy Chase are not turning into buyers markets.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Keep dreaming. Good close in locations in Arlington, McLean, Bethesda and Chevy Chase are not turning into buyers markets.

I've been following it. I have seen more homes decrease their price the past few.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Keep dreaming. Good close in locations in Arlington, McLean, Bethesda and Chevy Chase are not turning into buyers markets.

I've been following it. I have seen more homes decrease their price the past few.

Every single home under $2.5 in our area is going in a few days over ask.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Keep dreaming. Good close in locations in Arlington, McLean, Bethesda and Chevy Chase are not turning into buyers markets.

I've been following it. I have seen more homes decrease their price the past few.

Ok, haha. Keep waiting - I’m sure the market will come to you.

[Anonymous]

This is interesting because I’m seeing the opposite in my nova neighborhood. We do not have a top tier school pyramid (Fairfax county schools) and yet, the homes that have been in the market in my neighborhood have all gone under contract or pending within a week and have closed at over asking sometimes by $200,000. The last one did just that- listed at 969 and is going to close for over 1.2. It is bananas. These are single-family homes listing in the $900,000 range and going for over 1,000,000 or higher within days of being on market. This is in Alexandria, but the Fairfax County portion.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This is interesting because I’m seeing the opposite in my nova neighborhood. We do not have a top tier school pyramid (Fairfax county schools) and yet, the homes that have been in the market in my neighborhood have all gone under contract or pending within a week and have closed at over asking sometimes by $200,000. The last one did just that- listed at 969 and is going to close for over 1.2. It is bananas. These are single-family homes listing in the $900,000 range and going for over 1,000,000 or higher within days of being on market. This is in Alexandria, but the Fairfax County portion.

It's the same people that have been waiting and waiting for home prices to fall that say this stuff. It never happens in areas where people want to live - and it becomes harder and harder to enter the market.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This is interesting because I’m seeing the opposite in my nova neighborhood. We do not have a top tier school pyramid (Fairfax county schools) and yet, the homes that have been in the market in my neighborhood have all gone under contract or pending within a week and have closed at over asking sometimes by $200,000. The last one did just that- listed at 969 and is going to close for over 1.2. It is bananas. These are single-family homes listing in the $900,000 range and going for over 1,000,000 or higher within days of being on market. This is in Alexandria, but the Fairfax County portion.

We live in the same area and I'm noticing the same pattern. Prices are up this spring in Alexandria Fairfax area, and SFH are going fast.