MoCo tax revenues sharply down

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Happening in Virginia also:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2025/12/02/virginia-budget-taxes-spanberger-youngkin/

This will be a nationwide problem.

Maybe, but MoCo's rent control legislation and inability to attrach any private business to the county certainly compound the issues there. (Read the article linked).

Please. That guy blames everything on rent control. The fact is that rents are down. The economy has had the biggest impact on rents and rent control maybe had a little effect by capping the increases and making the average come out better. Lack of private business growth is also driving down rents.

But regardless of cause rents are down and no one is going to build new apartments while rents are down. Meanwhile, there’s a townhouse boom the likes of which we haven’t seen in a long time. At least one project converted from apartments to townhouses before breaking ground. That’s great for prospective owners.

Falling property valuations wouldn’t be such a problem if Andrew Friedson’s charter amendment hadn’t passed. His charter amendment let the county gorge on rising valuations but now that valuations are falling they’ll need to vote unanimously just to maintain the part of the property tax that goes to things other than schools. He’s set up a pretty tough vote for himself right before the primary, especially because he’s given his donors big tax breaks the past few years. Oops!

The MoCo Planning Department disagrees with you. It is “recommending the county change its “rent stabilization” law, saying it has had a chilling effect on housing development.”
https://www.thebanner.com/economy/growth-development/housing-shortage-montgomery-county-permitting-QZQYF25PBFGJRCDULPPKTKYI24/

Oh no! Not Planning! I’m soooo scared now.

Just kidding. Planning did nothing more than developers and printed what they said. Not all the developers said rent control and not all the developers even responded.

If I were a developer and demand were too soft to build new units I also would blame regulations that I hated to see if elected officials were gullible enough to bite on more de-regulation. But that doesn’t mean we should believe them.

I thought lowering rents was the main goal of the YIMBY programs and now rents are falling. Every community that has succeeded in lowering rents has had development tail off. Rental construction is slowing all over the country, and it’s not like Rockville and Gaithersburg, which don’t have rent control, are issuing bunches of new permits.

Personally I think it’s great to see more supply of townhouses for purchase because we get more density than detached SFH give and the new townhouses are correcting a supply and demand mismatch that’s been building for some time.

Rental construction is slowing because young people with college degrees, no kids and a lot of disposable income would rather live in Arlington, Alexandria or DC than a county with a bunch of old people, poor migrants, crumbling infrastructure, hardly any nice bars or places to go out at night, which is far away from any big job centers.

To stay economically viable you have to prioritize making your jurisdiction attractive to people who provide more tax revenue for your jurisdiction than they consume. Young UMC people are those people. Instead the county spends its time bragging about the retirement homes and low income housing its building. It’s no mystery it’s in the financial situation it’s in.

+1 none of the well off younger people I know live in moco; they think it is depressing. Silver Spring ought to be a destination for them; it’s not. And UMC people who pay taxes want to live in SFH, not townhomes. Those who end up in moco generally do so for commutes and then consume in DC.

As a PP noted, there are several new TH developments across MoCo, and they aren't cheap. So, who's buying those TH if "UMC live in SFH and young people don't live in MoCo"? They can't all be retirees because most of those TH do not have elevators, and the elderly don't want a home that has three floors.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Happening in Virginia also:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2025/12/02/virginia-budget-taxes-spanberger-youngkin/

This will be a nationwide problem.

Maybe, but MoCo's rent control legislation and inability to attrach any private business to the county certainly compound the issues there. (Read the article linked).

Please. That guy blames everything on rent control. The fact is that rents are down. The economy has had the biggest impact on rents and rent control maybe had a little effect by capping the increases and making the average come out better. Lack of private business growth is also driving down rents.

But regardless of cause rents are down and no one is going to build new apartments while rents are down. Meanwhile, there’s a townhouse boom the likes of which we haven’t seen in a long time. At least one project converted from apartments to townhouses before breaking ground. That’s great for prospective owners.

Falling property valuations wouldn’t be such a problem if Andrew Friedson’s charter amendment hadn’t passed. His charter amendment let the county gorge on rising valuations but now that valuations are falling they’ll need to vote unanimously just to maintain the part of the property tax that goes to things other than schools. He’s set up a pretty tough vote for himself right before the primary, especially because he’s given his donors big tax breaks the past few years. Oops!

The MoCo Planning Department disagrees with you. It is “recommending the county change its “rent stabilization” law, saying it has had a chilling effect on housing development.”
https://www.thebanner.com/economy/growth-development/housing-shortage-montgomery-county-permitting-QZQYF25PBFGJRCDULPPKTKYI24/

Oh no! Not Planning! I’m soooo scared now.

Just kidding. Planning did nothing more than developers and printed what they said. Not all the developers said rent control and not all the developers even responded.

If I were a developer and demand were too soft to build new units I also would blame regulations that I hated to see if elected officials were gullible enough to bite on more de-regulation. But that doesn’t mean we should believe them.

I thought lowering rents was the main goal of the YIMBY programs and now rents are falling. Every community that has succeeded in lowering rents has had development tail off. Rental construction is slowing all over the country, and it’s not like Rockville and Gaithersburg, which don’t have rent control, are issuing bunches of new permits.

Personally I think it’s great to see more supply of townhouses for purchase because we get more density than detached SFH give and the new townhouses are correcting a supply and demand mismatch that’s been building for some time.

Rental construction is slowing because young people with college degrees, no kids and a lot of disposable income would rather live in Arlington, Alexandria or DC than a county with a bunch of old people, poor migrants, crumbling infrastructure, hardly any nice bars or places to go out at night, which is far away from any big job centers.

To stay economically viable you have to prioritize making your jurisdiction attractive to people who provide more tax revenue for your jurisdiction than they consume. Young UMC people are those people. Instead the county spends its time bragging about the retirement homes and low income housing its building. It’s no mystery it’s in the financial situation it’s in.

+1 none of the well off younger people I know live in moco; they think it is depressing. Silver Spring ought to be a destination for them; it’s not. And UMC people who pay taxes want to live in SFH, not townhomes. Those who end up in moco generally do so for commutes and then consume in DC.

As a PP noted, there are several new TH developments across MoCo, and they aren't cheap. So, who's buying those TH if "UMC live in SFH and young people don't live in MoCo"? They can't all be retirees because most of those TH do not have elevators, and the elderly don't want a home that has three floors.

PP was talking about UMC without kids. Townhouses are for UMC with kids.

If a consequence of rent control is that more people build townhouses instead of rental apartments, I think that’s a good outcome for consumers. In addition to creating opportunities for people to own, they’ll reduce demand for apartments because more people will be able to move out. That will help bring rents down even more.

[Anonymous]

The rent control issue is a side issue. Regardless of what you think of it, MoCo is spending more than it is bringing in tax revenues. Its economy has struggled for years and it hasn’t acknowledged that fact by reining in services. It’s only solution is to raise taxes, which is driving away it’s wealthy population and compounding the problem.

[Anonymous]

What have they been overspending on?

[Anonymous]

I’m sure if Evan Glass adds a few more no right turn on red signs at empty commercial intersections, everything will be alright.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Happening in Virginia also:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2025/12/02/virginia-budget-taxes-spanberger-youngkin/

This will be a nationwide problem.

Maybe, but MoCo's rent control legislation and inability to attrach any private business to the county certainly compound the issues there. (Read the article linked).

Please. That guy blames everything on rent control. The fact is that rents are down. The economy has had the biggest impact on rents and rent control maybe had a little effect by capping the increases and making the average come out better. Lack of private business growth is also driving down rents.

But regardless of cause rents are down and no one is going to build new apartments while rents are down. Meanwhile, there’s a townhouse boom the likes of which we haven’t seen in a long time. At least one project converted from apartments to townhouses before breaking ground. That’s great for prospective owners.

Falling property valuations wouldn’t be such a problem if Andrew Friedson’s charter amendment hadn’t passed. His charter amendment let the county gorge on rising valuations but now that valuations are falling they’ll need to vote unanimously just to maintain the part of the property tax that goes to things other than schools. He’s set up a pretty tough vote for himself right before the primary, especially because he’s given his donors big tax breaks the past few years. Oops!

The MoCo Planning Department disagrees with you. It is “recommending the county change its “rent stabilization” law, saying it has had a chilling effect on housing development.”
https://www.thebanner.com/economy/growth-development/housing-shortage-montgomery-county-permitting-QZQYF25PBFGJRCDULPPKTKYI24/

Oh no! Not Planning! I’m soooo scared now.

Just kidding. Planning did nothing more than developers and printed what they said. Not all the developers said rent control and not all the developers even responded.

If I were a developer and demand were too soft to build new units I also would blame regulations that I hated to see if elected officials were gullible enough to bite on more de-regulation. But that doesn’t mean we should believe them.

I thought lowering rents was the main goal of the YIMBY programs and now rents are falling. Every community that has succeeded in lowering rents has had development tail off. Rental construction is slowing all over the country, and it’s not like Rockville and Gaithersburg, which don’t have rent control, are issuing bunches of new permits.

Personally I think it’s great to see more supply of townhouses for purchase because we get more density than detached SFH give and the new townhouses are correcting a supply and demand mismatch that’s been building for some time.

Rental construction is slowing because young people with college degrees, no kids and a lot of disposable income would rather live in Arlington, Alexandria or DC than a county with a bunch of old people, poor migrants, crumbling infrastructure, hardly any nice bars or places to go out at night, which is far away from any big job centers.

To stay economically viable you have to prioritize making your jurisdiction attractive to people who provide more tax revenue for your jurisdiction than they consume. Young UMC people are those people. Instead the county spends its time bragging about the retirement homes and low income housing its building. It’s no mystery it’s in the financial situation it’s in.

+1 none of the well off younger people I know live in moco; they think it is depressing. Silver Spring ought to be a destination for them; it’s not. And UMC people who pay taxes want to live in SFH, not townhomes. Those who end up in moco generally do so for commutes and then consume in DC.

As a PP noted, there are several new TH developments across MoCo, and they aren't cheap. So, who's buying those TH if "UMC live in SFH and young people don't live in MoCo"? They can't all be retirees because most of those TH do not have elevators, and the elderly don't want a home that has three floors.

PP was talking about UMC without kids. Townhouses are for UMC with kids.

If a consequence of rent control is that more people build townhouses instead of rental apartments, I think that’s a good outcome for consumers. In addition to creating opportunities for people to own, they’ll reduce demand for apartments because more people will be able to move out. That will help bring rents down even more.

UMC without kids want to live in SFH, but those with kids want to live in townhomes? That seems backwards.

I live in MoCo and many of my millennial friends with kids live in townhomes here. But that's because we all work in MoCo.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Cut school spending. It is out of control. Why can kids in Taiwan blow Moco kids out of the water in math and only need a $.38 abacus to learn? Everyone is paying for MCPS bloated salaries and pensions. It isn’t like kids are doing better in school.

Are you saying MoCo's "pour money in, money will solve all school problems" approach isn't working?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The rent control issue is a side issue. Regardless of what you think of it, MoCo is spending more than it is bringing in tax revenues. Its economy has struggled for years and it hasn’t acknowledged that fact by reining in services. It’s only solution is to raise taxes, which is driving away it’s wealthy population and compounding the problem.

You'd think then we'd eventually get housing prices down to more reasonable levels then.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The rent control issue is a side issue. Regardless of what you think of it, MoCo is spending more than it is bringing in tax revenues. Its economy has struggled for years and it hasn’t acknowledged that fact by reining in services. It’s only solution is to raise taxes, which is driving away it’s wealthy population and compounding the problem.

You'd think then we'd eventually get housing prices down to more reasonable levels then.

Prices of houses in MoCo are cheaper than comparable houses in northern Va.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The rent control issue is a side issue. Regardless of what you think of it, MoCo is spending more than it is bringing in tax revenues. Its economy has struggled for years and it hasn’t acknowledged that fact by reining in services. It’s only solution is to raise taxes, which is driving away it’s wealthy population and compounding the problem.

You'd think then we'd eventually get housing prices down to more reasonable levels then.

Housing prices won’t go down unless land prices go down. Andrew Friedson has been propping up land prices and bailing out speculators who made bad land deals by giving them tax breaks. His big zoning changes have also made land more expensive, but at least those price increases could be offset on a per unit basis through additional density.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Cut school spending. It is out of control. Why can kids in Taiwan blow Moco kids out of the water in math and only need a $.38 abacus to learn? Everyone is paying for MCPS bloated salaries and pensions. It isn’t like kids are doing better in school.

Surprise, surprise, the Taxpayer League showed up. Please go away, many of us want to improve the community and know that it takes money - a rising tide raises all boats.

MCPS needs to improve STAT, because they are a mess, and without improvement, no businesses/companies will come here. The 3 most important thing fortune 500 companies look for to put a headquarters or campus are 1. An educated population, which we have, 2. An excellent school system for their employees kids to go to school - we are falling short and falling fast here and 3. Affordable housing with easy commutes for their staff to get to work - another area where Montgomery County is failing.

[Anonymous]

Unless I am somehow misreading the charts…tax revenue is up but not as much as projected.

Correct?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Unless I am somehow misreading the charts…tax revenue is up but not as much as projected.

Correct?

Right. Mostly property tax revenue projections, which had been based on inflated values and assessments.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Cut school spending. It is out of control. Why can kids in Taiwan blow Moco kids out of the water in math and only need a $.38 abacus to learn? Everyone is paying for MCPS bloated salaries and pensions. It isn’t like kids are doing better in school.

Surprise, surprise, the Taxpayer League showed up. Please go away, many of us want to improve the community and know that it takes money - a rising tide raises all boats.

MCPS needs to improve STAT, because they are a mess, and without improvement, no businesses/companies will come here. The 3 most important thing fortune 500 companies look for to put a headquarters or campus are 1. An educated population, which we have, 2. An excellent school system for their employees kids to go to school - we are falling short and falling fast here and 3. Affordable housing with easy commutes for their staff to get to work - another area where Montgomery County is failing.

Your points are well taken but you are naive.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Unless I am somehow misreading the charts…tax revenue is up but not as much as projected.

Correct?

Right. Mostly property tax revenue projections, which had been based on inflated values and assessments.

Inflated assessments would not have caused a projection problem if Andrew Friedson hadn’t led a shift from constant yield to constant rate. He presents himself as a budget hawk but has voted for nearly all the spending (including the pay raises that are the biggest threat to fiscal sustainability). The change in how property taxes are set allowed the county to binge spend while property values went up and allowed the county to rely on shaky projections of property values in the out years.