I was thinking this too. It’s a very high risk loyalty test |
The current scuttlebutt is that the Senate is going to confirm most if not all of his nominees while in session with no need for recess appointments. To some degree the threat of recess appointments makes this more likely. If he will just do a recess appointment anyway if they try to block a nominee, then what is the point of trying to block his nominees. Most Republicans in the Senate stand to benefit from supporting Trump's agenda in terms of their constituents, who largely voted for Trump. Among the ones who have some degree of independence, there likely aren't enough of them to block any of these nominations unless they all band together to block the one they find most egregious, which is unlikely.
Gaetz is the only one who I think they *might* try to block because he is personally disliked by so many people but I think in the end they will confirm him because there will not be enough Senators with strong enough reasons to make a stand on this specific issue to block it. I also assume that among the people who might otherwise oppose Gaetz or another nominee, this will be an opportunity to try and get something specific they want for constituents out of the tax cuts that are certain to be Trump's first (and potentially only) legislative initiative. Murkowski in particular is a good candidate for this because ultimately her constituents don't care that much about what happens in Washington but care a lot about how federal tax policy impacts them, and Murkowski's independence is fully the result of Alaskans trusting her to always get them what they want. They don't really care that much about Gaetz and the DOJ either way. I think most of these will get confirmed uneventfully with 51 or 52 votes and that maybe they have to bring Vance in to help with Gaetz and/or Hegseth. There's an outside chance that something blows up with Gaetz before there are even hearings due to this ethics probes or his general odiousness but if he gets hearings, I think he'll get confirmed. |
I'm really hoping that John Roberts has a conscience. |
Murkowski has a solid track record of being a liar on nomination issues. https://www.murkowski.senate.gov/press/release/murkowski-votes-to-confirm_judge-amy-coney-barrett-to-supreme-court |
I'm *hoping* with Trump's age and if they have 4 years till reelection that they will take the odds. While Vance is frightening, he is not a cult leader like the felon. He doesn't have it in him because nobody likes him. |
Olympia Snow retired 12 years ago so I don't think anyone is looking for her vote. I'm guessing you mean Susan Collins who yes has come out saying she won't vote for Gaetz. Murkowski has said that she does not think Gaetz is a "serious candidate" but has not stated one way or the other how she will vote. Republicans will have 53 Senators plus JD Vance as a potential tie break so there is room for up to three Republicans to vote against Gaetz (assuming no Democrats vote for him which probably no one will now that Manchin is gone) and he can still be confirmed. If some or all of the dissenters choose to do a no-vote instead of voting against Gaetz, they have even more wiggle room. Thune will be motivated to get a legitimate confirmation on this for Trump because if Trump goes to his nuclear option with a recess appointment (whether using this provision as Jeff suggests, which I still don't know about it, or just waiting for an inevitable recess) that is diminishing for the Senate. Thune wants to keep the Senate involved in the confirmation process for a variety of reasons, mostly self-interested, so he'll work hard to whip a vote for Trump. Unless this thing with Gaetz is just a ply to help Gaetz escape the ethics probe and Trump intends to replace him as nominee anyway which I absolutely think is possible. If this is the plan then it also does a good job of taking the heat of Hegpeth and making his confirmation more likely. |
MAGA motto: Let’s burn it all down. |
You have to remember all the moderate democrats will vote for his nominees. It’s what they do. |
Profiles in courage. |
Trump team is reportedly discussing plan to adjourn both Houses of Congress under Article II, section 3 of the Constitution, and then recess-appoint Cabinet.
Suck it! |
Most of his moms are unfit for office, like him. Dems won’t just lay down and hoping some Republicans have a conscience and back bone. |
^noms |
I don’t think most republicans will settle for a Russian spy to lead our intelligence community. If so, then we are in bigger trouble than many realize. |
This is the level of discourse I’ve come to expect from MAGA enthusiasts. Sad state of affairs. |
Bret Baier just interviewed Thune about recess appointments for Trump nominees: 'It's an option, but you have to have all Republicans vote to recess.' Says GOP senators who oppose Gaetz nomination would likely also object to recess. Plus, 'you have to have concurrence from the House.' |