School preference and offer odds

[Anonymous]

I'm not sure I'm understanding the data - could someone help me. Does the number in the parentheses equal the percentage of students who listed a particular school, but matched at a school they had ranked higher? For example, Latin I has the number 20% in parentheses - does that mean than of the kids who had Latin I someone on their lottery list, 20% matched at a place ranked higher than Latin (likely BASIS or a WOTP 5th grade for the feed). So, in this example, some percentage out of the 20% might not have had a good enough to get into the listed school (for example, is offer #150 to BASIS had BASIS listed 1st, then that kid would be part of the 20%, but likely wouldn't have been offered a spot at Latin I). Thanks!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm not sure I'm understanding the data - could someone help me. Does the number in the parentheses equal the percentage of students who listed a particular school, but matched at a school they had ranked higher? For example, Latin I has the number 20% in parentheses - does that mean than of the kids who had Latin I someone on their lottery list, 20% matched at a place ranked higher than Latin (likely BASIS or a WOTP 5th grade for the feed). So, in this example, some percentage out of the 20% might not have had a good enough to get into the listed school (for example, is offer #150 to BASIS had BASIS listed 1st, then that kid would be part of the 20%, but likely wouldn't have been offered a spot at Latin I). Thanks!

I think so. That's why this is approximate at best. It also doesn't account for late-acquired sibling preference.

[Anonymous]

I find it hard to make sense of as even those who got into a higher ranked school might have been majority sibling preference applicants for all we know.

If sibling preference at Basis, I'd still list Latin I and II on my application...

Unless you can fully subtract out all preference applicants, you still can't quite calculate the odds.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm not sure I'm understanding the data - could someone help me. Does the number in the parentheses equal the percentage of students who listed a particular school, but matched at a school they had ranked higher? For example, Latin I has the number 20% in parentheses - does that mean than of the kids who had Latin I someone on their lottery list, 20% matched at a place ranked higher than Latin (likely BASIS or a WOTP 5th grade for the feed). So, in this example, some percentage out of the 20% might not have had a good enough to get into the listed school (for example, is offer #150 to BASIS had BASIS listed 1st, then that kid would be part of the 20%, but likely wouldn't have been offered a spot at Latin I). Thanks!

Yes, this is correct.

[Anonymous]

I find it’s pretty useless because it doesn’t account for sibling preference and it states chances at other schools which we don’t know what those schools are.

I don’t need to overanalyze and obsess. I just want to know odds of getting into a school and you can tell that by looking at the numbers admitted and waitlist on match day. That’s your number and bottom. Bonus if some people get in off the waitlist but I would not rely on that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I find it’s pretty useless because it doesn’t account for sibling preference and it states chances at other schools which we don’t know what those schools are.

I don’t need to overanalyze and obsess. I just want to know odds of getting into a school and you can tell that by looking at the numbers admitted and waitlist on match day. That’s your number and bottom. Bonus if some people get in off the waitlist but I would not rely on that.

You can also filter this by sibling preference but again that could vary greatly from year to year.

[Anonymous]

Just realized total applications were already available for all DCPS schools (but not DCPCS) all the way back to SY14-15 from the downloadable data files here: https://enrolldcps.dc.gov/node/61

For fun:

SY14-15 SWW had 1097 applicants, Banneker 754, McKinley 897

SY19-20 SWW 1213, Banneker 796, McKinley 780

SY24-25 SWW 1527, Banneker 1291, McKinley 1271

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I find it’s pretty useless because it doesn’t account for sibling preference and it states chances at other schools which we don’t know what those schools are.

I don’t need to overanalyze and obsess. I just want to know odds of getting into a school and you can tell that by looking at the numbers admitted and waitlist on match day. That’s your number and bottom. Bonus if some people get in off the waitlist but I would not rely on that.

You can also filter this by sibling preference but again that could vary greatly from year to year.

Right but can you tell how many people overall had sibling (or other types of) preference to get at true odds for someone who doesn't have any preference to list?

For instance, of the 20 percent who likely matched to a school that they ranked higher than Latin I, it's also possible that most of that 20 percent had sibling preference at that higher ranking school yet still listed Latin as a lower ranked spot on the application, as a "just in case"

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I find it hard to make sense of as even those who got into a higher ranked school might have been majority sibling preference applicants for all we know.

If sibling preference at Basis, I'd still list Latin I and II on my application...

Unless you can fully subtract out all preference applicants, you still can't quite calculate the odds.

This is true generally, but for middle school entry grades sibling preference is a guaranteed spot at every school and that makes it more straightforward.

If you rank school A first and you have sibling preference there, you are definitely getting in. There is no reason to list any other school. You'll be reflected in the matched numbers at school A.

If you rank school B first and don't get in, you'll still get into school A where you have sibling preference. You'll be reflected in the matched numbers at school A. You'll only be reflected in the waitlist numbers at school B, since you didn't get into a higher ranked school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:5th grade lottery likelihood of matching at this school or a higher ranked school on match day (likelihood to a higher ranked):

Latin I - 32% (20%)
Latin II - 35% (21%)
Capitol Hill Montessori - 50% (36%)
BASIS - 50% (21%)
ITDS - 57% (34%)
BASIS EA - 67% (33%)
KIPP KEY - 80% (51%)
DC Prep Anacostia - 88% (42%)
TR Young - 90% (53%)
Latin I EA - 92% (38%)
KIPP AIM - 95% (35%)
KIPP Honor - 95% (39%)
DC Prep Edgewood - 95% (52%)
CMI - 96% (60%)
Capital City - 98% (28%)
Statesman - 100% (35%)
Friendship Online - 100% (39%)

I filtered out schools with fewer than 10 matches.

Is this subtracting out sibling preference matches? Spots for Equitable access? Etc.

No. However the data is there to be able to do this. FWIW none of the schools listed above have an EA preference. Some do have a separate EA lottery.

Believe the odds for Latin and Basis drastically drop once you account for siblings

5th grade lottery likelihood of matching at this school or a higher ranked school on match day, if you have no preference at this school:

Latin I - 27%
Latin II - 30%
BASIS - 44%
Capitol Hill Montessori - 46%
ITDS - 56%
BASIS EA - 60%
KIPP KEY - 66%
KIPP AIM - 73%
TR Young - 73%
Latin I EA - 76%
KIPP Honor - 83%
DC Prep Anacostia - 83%
DC Prep Edgewood - 91%
Capital City - 93%
CMI - 96%
Statesman - 100%
Friendship Online - 100%

Odds for matching at a higher ranked school stay the same.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I find it hard to make sense of as even those who got into a higher ranked school might have been majority sibling preference applicants for all we know.

If sibling preference at Basis, I'd still list Latin I and II on my application...

Unless you can fully subtract out all preference applicants, you still can't quite calculate the odds.

This is true generally, but for middle school entry grades sibling preference is a guaranteed spot at every school and that makes it more straightforward.

If you rank school A first and you have sibling preference there, you are definitely getting in. There is no reason to list any other school. You'll be reflected in the matched numbers at school A.

If you rank school B first and don't get in, you'll still get into school A where you have sibling preference. You'll be reflected in the matched numbers at school A. You'll only be reflected in the waitlist numbers at school B, since you didn't get into a higher ranked school.

But would I also be listed as an applicant of school B?

That's where I struggle with coming up with overall odds for an applicant with no preference

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I find it hard to make sense of as even those who got into a higher ranked school might have been majority sibling preference applicants for all we know.

If sibling preference at Basis, I'd still list Latin I and II on my application...

Unless you can fully subtract out all preference applicants, you still can't quite calculate the odds.

This is true generally, but for middle school entry grades sibling preference is a guaranteed spot at every school and that makes it more straightforward.

If you rank school A first and you have sibling preference there, you are definitely getting in. There is no reason to list any other school. You'll be reflected in the matched numbers at school A.

If you rank school B first and don't get in, you'll still get into school A where you have sibling preference. You'll be reflected in the matched numbers at school A. You'll only be reflected in the waitlist numbers at school B, since you didn't get into a higher ranked school.

But would I also be listed as an applicant of school B?

That's where I struggle with coming up with overall odds for an applicant with no preference

When we applied for our younger kid with sibling preference, we still listed additional schools as a just in case.

[Anonymous]

These numbers seem incorrect …

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I find it hard to make sense of as even those who got into a higher ranked school might have been majority sibling preference applicants for all we know.

If sibling preference at Basis, I'd still list Latin I and II on my application...

Unless you can fully subtract out all preference applicants, you still can't quite calculate the odds.

This is true generally, but for middle school entry grades sibling preference is a guaranteed spot at every school and that makes it more straightforward.

If you rank school A first and you have sibling preference there, you are definitely getting in. There is no reason to list any other school. You'll be reflected in the matched numbers at school A.

If you rank school B first and don't get in, you'll still get into school A where you have sibling preference. You'll be reflected in the matched numbers at school A. You'll only be reflected in the waitlist numbers at school B, since you didn't get into a higher ranked school.

But would I also be listed as an applicant of school B?

That's where I struggle with coming up with overall odds for an applicant with no preference

When we applied for our younger kid with sibling preference, we still listed additional schools as a just in case.

For 5th and 6th grades this makes no sense. Maybe people do it anyway but it is entirely irrational.

Different story for someone applying to something like PK3 at Maury or 9th at Latin where sibling preference doesn't necessarily guarantee a seat.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I find it hard to make sense of as even those who got into a higher ranked school might have been majority sibling preference applicants for all we know.

If sibling preference at Basis, I'd still list Latin I and II on my application...

Unless you can fully subtract out all preference applicants, you still can't quite calculate the odds.

This is true generally, but for middle school entry grades sibling preference is a guaranteed spot at every school and that makes it more straightforward.

If you rank school A first and you have sibling preference there, you are definitely getting in. There is no reason to list any other school. You'll be reflected in the matched numbers at school A.

If you rank school B first and don't get in, you'll still get into school A where you have sibling preference. You'll be reflected in the matched numbers at school A. You'll only be reflected in the waitlist numbers at school B, since you didn't get into a higher ranked school.

But would I also be listed as an applicant of school B?

That's where I struggle with coming up with overall odds for an applicant with no preference

When we applied for our younger kid with sibling preference, we still listed additional schools as a just in case.

For 5th and 6th grades this makes no sense. Maybe people do it anyway but it is entirely irrational.

Different story for someone applying to something like PK3 at Maury or 9th at Latin where sibling preference doesn't necessarily guarantee a seat.

Would definitely do it, you just never know. Even with sibling preference and knowing we were pretty much guarding, would still list a few backup schools just for the heck of it. How many would do something similar? Some of those who may be listed as in the total applicants at a school might have had a higher ranked school they were guaranteed due to preference.