Better investment - fancy neighborhood in DC or MD?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:DC had headwinds, but I doubt the value trajectories will be that different on either side of western Ave. DC’s problems will affect the whole area.

My husband said what we are looking at on both sides is in the same rise or fall bubble as well. I feel like houses in "very good" DC neighborhoods just never lose value though, and maybe gain more. Is this true of "very good" close in MD?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:[twitter]

Anonymous wrote:MD is the way to go here, OP.

DC is facing extremely difficult financial times, with CRE imploding and huge revenue declines. Personal and sales taxes are likely to rise and services decline in the foreseeable future. Here is just one article.

https://www.globest.com/2022/12/01/cre-firms-collapsing-office-values-threat-to-dcs-fiscal-health/

MD also gives you in state college options.

The people in the fancy neighborhoods aren’t stressed about college.

Ha! We are pretty open-minded to college and UMD has some great programs. DC has the opportunity scholarship, but can't remember if there is an income cap. I would say it's true this is not a big factor for us though, but it isn't bad to consider.

DC Opportunity Scholarship is for low income families: "Be either recipients of SNAP benefits (food stamps) OR meet income guidelines: at or below 185% of the income threshold for first time applicants or 300% of the income threshold for renewing families."

[Anonymous]

MD, because the public schools bring added value over time. MCPS is much stronger than DCPS, and not everyone who buys into those wealthy areas wants to send their kids to private. Also, FYI, families who stay in DC until college admissions do not benefit from in-state tuition at any university (there's only one "state" uni in DC and it's not great). They are allowed 10K to offset costs, but that's ridiculously low compared to what colleges cost today. So families move out of DC before then and settle either in MD, for UMD, or VA, for UVA.


Chevy Chase, I presume?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:[twitter]

Anonymous wrote:MD is the way to go here, OP.

DC is facing extremely difficult financial times, with CRE imploding and huge revenue declines. Personal and sales taxes are likely to rise and services decline in the foreseeable future. Here is just one article.

https://www.globest.com/2022/12/01/cre-firms-collapsing-office-values-threat-to-dcs-fiscal-health/

MD also gives you in state college options.

The people in the fancy neighborhoods aren’t stressed about college.

Oh, they very much are. I live in the fancy neighborhood, have a college freshman, and come college admissions time, it's all parents talk about. When you have 3 kids all wanting private universities at 90K/yr, sending one to UMD or UVA at 30-40K/yr starts to sound really nice. If the kid can get in. They're getting quite selective. If your kid is slightly less proficient, there are slew of state colleges in both MD and VA that will educate them at a reasonable cost, instead of paying through the nose for an out-of-state no-name college.

MCPS, FCPS and college cost considerations play a large role in the exorbitant real estate prices of close-in MD and VA. The prices in the nice neighborhoods are not going down. Ever.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:MD, because the public schools bring added value over time. MCPS is much stronger than DCPS, and not everyone who buys into those wealthy areas wants to send their kids to private. Also, FYI, families who stay in DC until college admissions do not benefit from in-state tuition at any university (there's only one "state" uni in DC and it's not great). They are allowed 10K to offset costs, but that's ridiculously low compared to what colleges cost today. So families move out of DC before then and settle either in MD, for UMD, or VA, for UVA.


Chevy Chase, I presume?

Chevy Chase is charming, but felt like the demographic is a bit younger than us. Have been looking more Kenwood / edgemoor. Our kids are closer to college than strollers. Maybe I've got it wrong, again lovely and is definitely " on the list". Not a lot of inventory, but that's everywhere.

[Anonymous]

Imagine having enough money to buy in Upper NW and quibbling over a few percentage points over decades/ What a miserable way to live your life. Buy the house you like best and shut up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Imagine having enough money to buy in Upper NW and quibbling over a few percentage points over decades/ What a miserable way to live your life. Buy the house you like best and shut up.

We haven't had it easy and I feel an obligation to my kids to make a wise decision from an investment point of view, as well as what I would like for now for me. I'm guessing a lot of people weigh that.

[Anonymous]

If closer to college age, you should be looking at Virginia. The choices are so much better than what MD or DC can offer.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Imagine having enough money to buy in Upper NW and quibbling over a few percentage points over decades/ What a miserable way to live your life. Buy the house you like best and shut up.

We haven't had it easy and I feel an obligation to my kids to make a wise decision from an investment point of view, as well as what I would like for now for me. I'm guessing a lot of people weigh that.

You are trying to play fortune teller. Who knows what will be desirable by the time you want to sell or retire, but the fact you can purchase in any of these places makes you incredibly fortunate. Maybe look at 10-20 years back and see the prices of each area to get an idea of if they kept their value. Many people "haven't had it easy" and still can't buy in any of these places!

Any of those areas are desirable and probably will stay that way, but who knows? Look at SF and Oakland! Many people I know who lived/ worked there have fled, especially those with kids. DC needs to fix the crime problems, big time. I have friends who wanted to move to Capital Hill, but now are looking elsewhere because of the crime and Maury/Miner discussions.

That being said I would try and buy somewhere that didn't have a ton of cheap new builds. I think many of them are tacky and who knows what new materials will be the new lead and asbestos in the future. No thanks.

Doesn't mean you shouldn't buy where new custom homes are being built, or ones that are clearly not being done by flippers. I only say this as it sounds like you have a nice budget. Not everyone is afforded that luxury, because that is what it is, a luxury.

Spend time in the neighborhoods, talk to neighbors, go to restaurants and shops around.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If closer to college age, you should be looking at Virginia. The choices are so much better than what MD or DC can offer.

This. Look in McLean

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We are looking at basically the same house - lovely house (not new build, nice "bones"), very nice plot, nice safe neighborhood. One in DC, one in close in (to DC) MD. I know safe is a relative term now, but both are as safe-ish as you can get in these areas . I perceive the DC house as the better investment over time, but prefer the MD house. Husband says MD house is so close in, it stays in the "value bubble" provided by DC/Bethesda/Chevy Chase. Both walkable to amenity hubs.
I want to buy what we would enjoy right now, but also thinking of the kids. We would have to sell our existing DC home, which has been a great investment - doubled in value. We bought the last time the bubble burst.

Safe neighborhood in DC?
Does house also come with a unicorn?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Order of operations: (1) you like the house and (2) you minimize commute, imho.

Traffic is now worse in close-in MD than in DC. I have to drive to downtown Bethesda once per week and it's so much worse than traffic in downtown DC.

That said, I fully expect DC to raise residential property and sales taxes to make up for the shortfall in CRE taxes.

I think the value proposition for homes that feed to MacArthur HS in DC is very good. By the time my kids go there in a decade, it's going to be an incredible small HS with the best teachers and a smart student body.

We have friends with kids in the W high schools in MD + feeder schools and they complain so much about how the schools are over-crowded. It's a lot worse than DC. I think there's also an college admissions edge for kids who graduate from DC schools.

You have to pick the house you like best. Crime is the same in both of those places and CRE in DC is not really going to affect you. Even if property taxes increase, property and income taxes are much lower in DC. Even for very high income earners. I live in DC. I actually think our property taxes are too low.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MD, because the public schools bring added value over time. MCPS is much stronger than DCPS, and not everyone who buys into those wealthy areas wants to send their kids to private. Also, FYI, families who stay in DC until college admissions do not benefit from in-state tuition at any university (there's only one "state" uni in DC and it's not great). They are allowed 10K to offset costs, but that's ridiculously low compared to what colleges cost today. So families move out of DC before then and settle either in MD, for UMD, or VA, for UVA.


Chevy Chase, I presume?

Chevy Chase is charming, but felt like the demographic is a bit younger than us. Have been looking more Kenwood / edgemoor. Our kids are closer to college than strollers. Maybe I've got it wrong, again lovely and is definitely " on the list". Not a lot of inventory, but that's everywhere.

I live where you’re looking, OP. Kenwood and Edgemoor are much nicer than NW DC neighborhoods regarding safety, quality of life, and of course, for school and college considerations.

[Anonymous]

I really think you’re trying to predict the unpredictable, OP. You don’t like one house or neighborhood over the other? They’re really interchangeable?? Even for commute and schools?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Imagine having enough money to buy in Upper NW and quibbling over a few percentage points over decades/ What a miserable way to live your life. Buy the house you like best and shut up.

We haven't had it easy and I feel an obligation to my kids to make a wise decision from an investment point of view, as well as what I would like for now for me. I'm guessing a lot of people weigh that.

You are trying to play fortune teller. Who knows what will be desirable by the time you want to sell or retire, but the fact you can purchase in any of these places makes you incredibly fortunate. Maybe look at 10-20 years back and see the prices of each area to get an idea of if they kept their value. Many people "haven't had it easy" and still can't buy in any of these places!

Any of those areas are desirable and probably will stay that way, but who knows? Look at SF and Oakland! Many people I know who lived/ worked there have fled, especially those with kids. DC needs to fix the crime problems, big time. I have friends who wanted to move to Capital Hill, but now are looking elsewhere because of the crime and Maury/Miner discussions.

That being said I would try and buy somewhere that didn't have a ton of cheap new builds. I think many of them are tacky and who knows what new materials will be the new lead and asbestos in the future. No thanks.

Doesn't mean you shouldn't buy where new custom homes are being built, or ones that are clearly not being done by flippers. I only say this as it sounds like you have a nice budget. Not everyone is afforded that luxury, because that is what it is, a luxury.

Spend time in the neighborhoods, talk to neighbors, go to restaurants and shops around.

I hear you. I like your idea of looking back historically, but I also have never seen this amount of flux. It's almost like everything feels topsy turvy PLUS a weird housing market. I am very aware of what happened in SF.... that's really stuck in my brain. I've seen DC rise - horrible to see it "freefall" in terms of crime and CRE. It might be arrested with some policy changes, who knows. Definitely trying to avoid buying into that anywhere it's evident it's "about to happen"- like early days of the SF disaster in making. I think both neighborhoods are pretty well insulated, but I appreciate all the perspectives. Especially if anyone sees that coming in MoCo.

It may seem like a few percentage points, but I know a lot of people who sold their DC homes and "can't buy back in". I am guessing the MD homes we are looking at we could do that... Some of this is probably irrational.

Fortunate? Yes, it's a good feeling. We haven't always had much luck, which is a different thing. I'm hopeful!