Doom loop in cities - Commercial real estate

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:People are returning to the office. World Bank back 4 days/week, IMF won’t be far behind, Us gov agencies gradually increasing time in office.

Secondly, even if people don’t need an office, they need to work somewhere. And they want to live in a vibrant city with walkability, access to restaurants etc. So there is huge demand for suitable housing and opportunities for office to apartment/condo conversions. The key question is if DC is willing to address crime-without safety and quality of life, people won’t choose to live here.

Some do, but SFH prices in the burbs have gone up even faster than rents, so clearly not everyone does.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People are returning to the office. World Bank back 4 days/week, IMF won’t be far behind, Us gov agencies gradually increasing time in office.

Secondly, even if people don’t need an office, they need to work somewhere. And they want to live in a vibrant city with walkability, access to restaurants etc. So there is huge demand for suitable housing and opportunities for office to apartment/condo conversions. The key question is if DC is willing to address crime-without safety and quality of life, people won’t choose to live here.

Some do, but SFH prices in the burbs have gone up even faster than rents, so clearly not everyone does.

+1

For many people, quiet neighborhoods, good schools, and low crime are higher priorities than walking to restaurants.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It seems the key to understanding how this affects DC is to know:

- percentage of revenue coming into city from commercial real estate and commuters using metro, buying lunches/coffees, etc

- how DC uses any covid relief and when that dries up

- where DC raises revenue for policing and schools among other services (would these be cut?)

- health of commercial real estate landlords in the city and when leases in the city expire, like is there a wave of them expiring soon?

What other factors are important? How might this affect DC? Article below

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/08/28/commercial-real-estate-economy-urban-doom-loop/

DC is depended on the federal government. So it will always have that. The bigger problem with DC is DC’s height limit and three independent entities surrounding or controlling larges parts of the city- Virginia, Maryland and the Federal Government.
Its height limit artificially limits the density in DC. This means DC is trapped with density too low to support the services of a truly urban environment but too much density for a suburban services model to work. Most cities have the support of a state. Instead DC gets no state funding, corporation planning or support from Virginia or Maryland and the Federal government controls and manages large parts of the city.

No other city is like DC. It would be like taking 48 square mile of Boston and separating it from its surrounding neighborhoods and the state of Massachusetts.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People are returning to the office. World Bank back 4 days/week, IMF won’t be far behind, Us gov agencies gradually increasing time in office.

Secondly, even if people don’t need an office, they need to work somewhere. And they want to live in a vibrant city with walkability, access to restaurants etc. So there is huge demand for suitable housing and opportunities for office to apartment/condo conversions. The key question is if DC is willing to address crime-without safety and quality of life, people won’t choose to live here.

Some do, but SFH prices in the burbs have gone up even faster than rents, so clearly not everyone does.

+1

For many people, quiet neighborhoods, good schools, and low crime are higher priorities than walking to restaurants.

We're supposed to pretend that those people don't exist. Everyone wants walkable cities and is fine with sending their kids to underperforming schools

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People are returning to the office. World Bank back 4 days/week, IMF won’t be far behind, Us gov agencies gradually increasing time in office.

Secondly, even if people don’t need an office, they need to work somewhere. And they want to live in a vibrant city with walkability, access to restaurants etc. So there is huge demand for suitable housing and opportunities for office to apartment/condo conversions. The key question is if DC is willing to address crime-without safety and quality of life, people won’t choose to live here.

Some do, but SFH prices in the burbs have gone up even faster than rents, so clearly not everyone does.

+1

For many people, quiet neighborhoods, good schools, and low crime are higher priorities than walking to restaurants.

We're supposed to pretend that those people don't exist. Everyone wants walkable cities and is fine with sending their kids to underperforming schools

Or somehow have enough leftover $$ after buying an overpriced house to afford private....

[Anonymous]

Stop trying to upzone existing residential neighborhoods where schools are already overcrowded. The downtown area needs the growth.

[Anonymous]

These properties should be utilized for homeless and migrant people ASAP.