Why can't meteorologists do their job around here????!!!!!!

[Anonymous]

To get accurate weather reports around here you literally have to watch live radar you can't rely on any of the meteorologists around here because they're idiots.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:To get accurate weather reports around here you literally have to watch live radar you can't rely on any of the meteorologists around here because they're idiots.

The mets are not idiots. Weather reporters, on the other hand...

[Anonymous]

Bets on where OP just moved from?

[Anonymous]

Weather here changes from day to day, depending on coastal winds and other factors.

It's the only place I have ever lived where fronts can come from different directions.

And, they can't seem to predict which parts.of the area will receive really bad weather and which won't, so I keep an eye on radar during the day if we have outside plans.

[Anonymous]

What? You think the meteorologists are "disregarding their jobs"? What? Do you seriously not know how complicated weather forecasting is?

[Anonymous]

They can't predict jack, clearly.

[Anonymous]

Hi, actual meteorologist here, but not currently in the forecasting business.

There is simply no way to accurately forecast from days to hours out whether a storm will hit your neighborhood. There may never be. The atmosphere is beyond complex. The best that can be done is to say that the conditions are right for storms in a particular region.

As far as today’s forecast, they got it right. There was a relatively high chance at storms and the NWS had a Flash Flood watch out from early in the day. But, it didn’t hit everybody. It barely dripped in north Tysons. Does that mean it is a failed forecast there?

People also misinterpret the forecast percentages. Again, this is all based on conditions and stochasticness . A 40% chance of rain means that if conditions were equal, your location would get rain on 4 out of 10 days. It is a probability measure.

They did a good job today.

[Anonymous]

check out nws baltimore washington on X, they have actual forecasts and they update as conditions change.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Hi, actual meteorologist here, but not currently in the forecasting business.

There is simply no way to accurately forecast from days to hours out whether a storm will hit your neighborhood. There may never be. The atmosphere is beyond complex. The best that can be done is to say that the conditions are right for storms in a particular region.

As far as today’s forecast, they got it right. There was a relatively high chance at storms and the NWS had a Flash Flood watch out from early in the day. But, it didn’t hit everybody. It barely dripped in north Tysons. Does that mean it is a failed forecast there?

People also misinterpret the forecast percentages. Again, this is all based on conditions and stochasticness . A 40% chance of rain means that if conditions were equal, your location would get rain on 4 out of 10 days. It is a probability measure.

They did a good job today.

Not quite, 40% means that in a region with area A, over D similar days, an average (arithmetic.mean) of 40% of the region would get wet each day, averaged over many days.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Hi, actual meteorologist here, but not currently in the forecasting business.

There is simply no way to accurately forecast from days to hours out whether a storm will hit your neighborhood. There may never be. The atmosphere is beyond complex. The best that can be done is to say that the conditions are right for storms in a particular region.

As far as today’s forecast, they got it right. There was a relatively high chance at storms and the NWS had a Flash Flood watch out from early in the day. But, it didn’t hit everybody. It barely dripped in north Tysons. Does that mean it is a failed forecast there?

People also misinterpret the forecast percentages. Again, this is all based on conditions and stochasticness . A 40% chance of rain means that if conditions were equal, your location would get rain on 4 out of 10 days. It is a probability measure.

They did a good job today.

Not quite, 40% means that in a region with area A, over D similar days, an average (arithmetic.mean) of 40% of the region would get wet each day, averaged over many days.

Probability of Precipitation (POP) is a point measurement.

[Anonymous]

The infrastructure for weather prediction and radar in the US is archaic and way behind other major developed countries.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Hi, actual meteorologist here, but not currently in the forecasting business.

There is simply no way to accurately forecast from days to hours out whether a storm will hit your neighborhood. There may never be. The atmosphere is beyond complex. The best that can be done is to say that the conditions are right for storms in a particular region.

As far as today’s forecast, they got it right. There was a relatively high chance at storms and the NWS had a Flash Flood watch out from early in the day. But, it didn’t hit everybody. It barely dripped in north Tysons. Does that mean it is a failed forecast there?

People also misinterpret the forecast percentages. Again, this is all based on conditions and stochasticness . A 40% chance of rain means that if conditions were equal, your location would get rain on 4 out of 10 days. It is a probability measure.

They did a good job today.

They did a terrible job yesterday with the forecast. As the day went on the chance of storms went down not up. SMH.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Wtf?? When I checked the weather report a few days ago there was a 70% chance of rain, this am it was 40%. Fast forward a few hours suddenly it's raining, already flooding the roads, our phones are going off with 8 different warnings including tornado warnings telling us to get to shelter immediately, the phones go off again flood warnings, thunderstorms. Why can't the meteorologists around here do their jobs correctly it's one things storms popping up but this happens here all the time and it's getting worse! If anyone disregarded their jobs like this they would be unemployed!!! Never seen such incompetence like this in my life. Then they said oh the weather service was going to issue a flash flood at 5 pm when it was already flooded by 4:15! You can't make this level of incompetence up! It's astounding!!

agree, there needs to be more accountability like jail time and prison sentences

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:But they do excellent job today explaining what went wrong with their forecast yesterday. Evens out, I guess?

There is indeed always an excuse the next day.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The % they are typically reporting is confidence level. Not chance of rain.

DC METRO Meteorologists: "YOU HAVE ONE JOB! DO IT."