Where will mortgage rates go in the next 1-2 years?

[Anonymous]

There's good economic theory to support the idea that equilibrium long-term interest rates are trending lower over time. The reasons include an aging global population and more efficient financial markets. So there's good reason to believe that the 3-4% rates of the 2010s are pretty sustainable once we've worked our way through the various COVID supply and preference shocks, even if they might not have been sustainable in the 80s or 90s.

Will we get there in the next year or two though? Who knows.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There's good economic theory to support the idea that equilibrium long-term interest rates are trending lower over time. The reasons include an aging global population and more efficient financial markets. So there's good reason to believe that the 3-4% rates of the 2010s are pretty sustainable once we've worked our way through the various COVID supply and preference shocks, even if they might not have been sustainable in the 80s or 90s.

Will we get there in the next year or two though? Who knows.

Covid supply shocks were an excuse. Fed needed inflation to raise rates so treasury can pay down debt.

[Anonymous]

In my non-expert opinion, I think 5-7% will be the new norm.

Based on what? Just a feeling. I think it will stay this way for much of 2023. People will gradually get used to it and eventually buy because they need to or want to and are tired of waiting.

If people accept it, what incentive is there to lower it?

The rates have been fairly low for a while.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There's good economic theory to support the idea that equilibrium long-term interest rates are trending lower over time. The reasons include an aging global population and more efficient financial markets. So there's good reason to believe that the 3-4% rates of the 2010s are pretty sustainable once we've worked our way through the various COVID supply and preference shocks, even if they might not have been sustainable in the 80s or 90s.

Will we get there in the next year or two though? Who knows.

Covid supply shocks were an excuse. Fed needed inflation to raise rates so treasury can pay down debt.

I guess the price of tinfoil hasn't gone up that much?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We need to move for schools in the next 1-2 years (private is not an option, in bound school is a disaster). We can reasonably afford our target suburban areas at 5-6.5% rates, but will be stretched if rates go higher than that. Do you think rates will stay at 7% or higher?

If you own right now and have a great interest rate, rent it out and find a rental to live in, in your ideal neighborhood.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They will go back to where they were before the pandemic, about 3-4%

No way. They will be 5-5.5 for years. Inflation is much harder to get out of than into. They have to take those trillions out of the economy with taxes or a recession to get back to 2%, and at the same time the debt is so high their only hope is to inflate it away. I don’t buy form a second that they are racing to a 2% target. They gotta get rid of some of that debt first and that means high interest for a longer time and increased taxes. With the supply side problems on housing compounding the problem by keeping demand high.

I can handle a 5-5.5 rate, but the 30 year mortgage is averaging near 7% today and the Fed is going to raise rates again and again in the near future. So how quickly do we think we're getting back to a 5-5.5% rate in the next couple of years, or may we not even see 5.5% rates in the next couple of years?

The modal interest rate was historically about 7% for like 40 years. I’d expect at least that for the next year or two and then slowly down to 5.5 over 3-5y.

Agreed. Powell's statement today means 7% 30Y rates by year-end.

Gotta get worse before it gets better. 5% with 2.5 years, maybe sub 4% within 5 years.

Look folks - Baby Boomer retirements are inherently inflationary. We are not adding workers fast enough, immigration pathways are not opened.

Year-end? Some are there now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We need to move for schools in the next 1-2 years (private is not an option, in bound school is a disaster). We can reasonably afford our target suburban areas at 5-6.5% rates, but will be stretched if rates go higher than that. Do you think rates will stay at 7% or higher?

If you own right now and have a great interest rate, rent it out and find a rental to live in, in your ideal neighborhood.

This.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We need to move for schools in the next 1-2 years (private is not an option, in bound school is a disaster). We can reasonably afford our target suburban areas at 5-6.5% rates, but will be stretched if rates go higher than that. Do you think rates will stay at 7% or higher?

If you own right now and have a great interest rate, rent it out and find a rental to live in, in your ideal neighborhood.

Do not do this if you need rent to pay your mortgage.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We need to move for schools in the next 1-2 years (private is not an option, in bound school is a disaster). We can reasonably afford our target suburban areas at 5-6.5% rates, but will be stretched if rates go higher than that. Do you think rates will stay at 7% or higher?

Biden keeps throwing hundreds of billions around, so not sure that inflation and therefore rates will really decrease before 2024 election.

[Anonymous]

I think the big thing to look at is the 10 year US treasury yield. The mortgage rates tend to follow that more than anything else.

[Anonymous]

yea its gonna go up way high and then stabilize back to 5s in a couple of years. Its gonna take a while, I wouldn't hold my breath on it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We need to move for schools in the next 1-2 years (private is not an option, in bound school is a disaster). We can reasonably afford our target suburban areas at 5-6.5% rates, but will be stretched if rates go higher than that. Do you think rates will stay at 7% or higher?

If you own right now and have a great interest rate, rent it out and find a rental to live in, in your ideal neighborhood.

Do not do this if you need rent to pay your mortgage.

what does this even mean?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We need to move for schools in the next 1-2 years (private is not an option, in bound school is a disaster). We can reasonably afford our target suburban areas at 5-6.5% rates, but will be stretched if rates go higher than that. Do you think rates will stay at 7% or higher?

If you own right now and have a great interest rate, rent it out and find a rental to live in, in your ideal neighborhood.

Do not do this if you need rent to pay your mortgage.

what does this even mean?

Ignore - it’s probably a realtor who is scared sh#tless as supply evaporates. Realtors hate owners who rent out their home.

[Anonymous]

I'm at 5.3% on a 30 year/7 year ARM construction to perm. Wish we could have gone 10 but rates were half a percent more. Figures 7 years is a good enough time to see what happens. Even if it went down to the low 4s we'd consider refinancing at that point.

[Anonymous]

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