What's your age and general stock market, jobs, and real estate prediction for the next 5 years?

[Anonymous]

I’m a mid 30s woman.

I expect the Fed to raise interest rates at least 150 more points and then stay high all through 2023 and at least first quarter of 2024, and I expect a significant softening of real estate prices as a result. I expect a recession that is heavily localized in SV/the tech sector. I expect the startup world to recover VERY slowly due to lack of access to cheap capital. And I don’t think any of this depends much on elections.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I’m a mid 30s woman.

I expect the Fed to raise interest rates at least 150 more points and then stay high all through 2023 and at least first quarter of 2024, and I expect a significant softening of real estate prices as a result. I expect a recession that is heavily localized in SV/the tech sector. I expect the startup world to recover VERY slowly due to lack of access to cheap capital. And I don’t think any of this depends much on elections.

this is pretty good. As much as their are dire social implications to the elections. Typically they are a moot point for markets. In fact, markets love a divided government.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Me - 75 years old

Stock Market - S&P 500 won’t hit 4800 again in my lifetime. Our portfolio is down 19% YTD and we’ve essentially lost years of financial runway thanks to Millennials and Gen Zs playing games meme stocks.

Jobs - The more people that lose their jobs in the coming 1-2 years, the better. We need selfish Millennials and Gen Z traders forced to liquidate so stock prices can go back up for those that legitimately earned their way into the market.

Real Estate - Prices will drop by 20% by end of 2023. This is driven by so many new homeowners buying beyond their affordability and causing prices to falter. Most Gen Z homeowners are buying in to homes 10 years earlier than they ought out of greed. Now honest people like Boomers have to suffer as a result.

Ok, b00mer. Is there anything you don't hate about everyone younger than you? Christ, I hope this is a troll.

How about showing some respect for a change??! Goddam spoiled brats in their 20s and 30s want to have their cake and eat it too. So tired of people like this pushing to the front of the line, boarding airplanes first with screaming kids, ruining my dining out experiences, bringing their f@ck!ng dogs into every store and café, and with no discipline. Then they get jobs, demand to work remotely, barely do their jobs, then start internet side businesses paid for by salary and benefits they steal from their primary employer. No loyalty! All of them need to get canned. This sh|t never would have flown when I was still in the workplace.

Wondered why the economy is tanking and in the recession? Read the above and now you know!

If this is serious - you sir, are the problem.

Are you just jealous because we make more and have better working conditions? Also...are you trying to argue that side business are HURTING the economy? LOL

I DEMAND YOUR RESPECT. I’M YOUR ELDER. My generation paved the way. My generation enabled corporate growth. My generation embraced traditional family values. You 20s and 30s kids owe your success to people like me. Now when it’s time to pay your dues, you’re keeping everything for yourselves.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Me - 75 years old

Stock Market - S&P 500 won’t hit 4800 again in my lifetime. Our portfolio is down 19% YTD and we’ve essentially lost years of financial runway thanks to Millennials and Gen Zs playing games meme stocks.

Jobs - The more people that lose their jobs in the coming 1-2 years, the better. We need selfish Millennials and Gen Z traders forced to liquidate so stock prices can go back up for those that legitimately earned their way into the market.

Real Estate - Prices will drop by 20% by end of 2023. This is driven by so many new homeowners buying beyond their affordability and causing prices to falter. Most Gen Z homeowners are buying in to homes 10 years earlier than they ought out of greed. Now honest people like Boomers have to suffer as a result.

What self respecting old fart is fully invested in equities

[Anonymous]

I have the same view as the OP, and I'm the same age.

Age 49

Stock market - a sluggish bear market that will last another two years before a slightly slowish recovery starting in the year 2025, with growth at a healthy clip

Jobs- higher unemployment

Real estate - I remember my parents talking about interest rates at 16-17% in the early 70s, and DH and I paid 7.6% interest in 2007 so although I think interest rates will rise a couple of more points, the low-interest rates we were seeing were unusual. I don't think the sky is falling. Housing prices will drop a bit, but not a complete collapse.

The big X factor is Europe and energy prices.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Me - 75 years old

Stock Market - S&P 500 won’t hit 4800 again in my lifetime. Our portfolio is down 19% YTD and we’ve essentially lost years of financial runway thanks to Millennials and Gen Zs playing games meme stocks.

Jobs - The more people that lose their jobs in the coming 1-2 years, the better. We need selfish Millennials and Gen Z traders forced to liquidate so stock prices can go back up for those that legitimately earned their way into the market.

Real Estate - Prices will drop by 20% by end of 2023. This is driven by so many new homeowners buying beyond their affordability and causing prices to falter. Most Gen Z homeowners are buying in to homes 10 years earlier than they ought out of greed. Now honest people like Boomers have to suffer as a result.

Ok, b00mer. Is there anything you don't hate about everyone younger than you? Christ, I hope this is a troll.

How about showing some respect for a change??! Goddam spoiled brats in their 20s and 30s want to have their cake and eat it too. So tired of people like this pushing to the front of the line, boarding airplanes first with screaming kids, ruining my dining out experiences, bringing their f@ck!ng dogs into every store and café, and with no discipline. Then they get jobs, demand to work remotely, barely do their jobs, then start internet side businesses paid for by salary and benefits they steal from their primary employer. No loyalty! All of them need to get canned. This sh|t never would have flown when I was still in the workplace.

Wondered why the economy is tanking and in the recession? Read the above and now you know!

If this is serious - you sir, are the problem.

Are you just jealous because we make more and have better working conditions? Also...are you trying to argue that side business are HURTING the economy? LOL

I DEMAND YOUR RESPECT. I’M YOUR ELDER. My generation paved the way. My generation enabled corporate growth. My generation embraced traditional family values. You 20s and 30s kids owe your success to people like me. Now when it’s time to pay your dues, you’re keeping everything for yourselves.

Love the sarcasm

[Anonymous]

26 - The middle class /UMC will be gone and are pretty much effed. The standard of living for UMC will decline because cost of everything will be higher.

Products should either sell to the luxury or people at the bottom. TBH.. we're already here.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:26 - The middle class /UMC will be gone and are pretty much effed. The standard of living for UMC will decline because cost of everything will be higher.

Products should either sell to the luxury or people at the bottom. TBH.. we're already here.

Wtf

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:26 - The middle class /UMC will be gone and are pretty much effed. The standard of living for UMC will decline because cost of everything will be higher.

Products should either sell to the luxury or people at the bottom. TBH.. we're already here.

such a short sighted approach.

[Anonymous]

52
Slightly educated guesses:

Market: Unless there's another major socio-political event, I think we're nearing bottom now but it won't be a V-shaped recovery rather a bumpy lasting plateau that drags maybe for another year and then slow growth for awhile after that. I think the tech sector will be the leading edge of growth again just because there seems to be no way of slowing down how software/AI is eating the world. No other trend seems remotely as primary. Climate change will just accelerate software growth.

I think the feds will stop interest rate increases before 5% and most of the increases will be complete before June 2023 and then will hold steady.

Jobs: Employment in the US has remained really robust. I think the demographic shifts with boomers retiring and smaller populations entering the workforce will mean unemployment rates remain low. Automation is a longer term trend working against unemployment, hard to say how much it will counter this in the next 5 years.

Real Estate: I don't think we've absorbed at all what indefinite remote working means for commercial real estate. As for housing, I don't expect a crash but little growth. I think climate change is going to finally make an impact on all kinds of real estate investment decisions (avoid the south for heat/hurricanes/floods, avoid the west for wildfires/air quality, avoid flooding risks on the east coast - incl. NY) now that the crazy-low interest rates are no longer making risky decisions tenable. I think people in high risk areas may have a hard time selling.

Some of my thoughts may be a little longer term than 5 years, but as an over-50 person, I know the future comes at you quick.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:52
Slightly educated guesses:

Market: Unless there's another major socio-political event, I think we're nearing bottom now but it won't be a V-shaped recovery rather a bumpy lasting plateau that drags maybe for another year and then slow growth for awhile after that. I think the tech sector will be the leading edge of growth again just because there seems to be no way of slowing down how software/AI is eating the world. No other trend seems remotely as primary. Climate change will just accelerate software growth.

I think the feds will stop interest rate increases before 5% and most of the increases will be complete before June 2023 and then will hold steady.

Jobs: Employment in the US has remained really robust. I think the demographic shifts with boomers retiring and smaller populations entering the workforce will mean unemployment rates remain low. Automation is a longer term trend working against unemployment, hard to say how much it will counter this in the next 5 years.

Real Estate: I don't think we've absorbed at all what indefinite remote working means for commercial real estate. As for housing, I don't expect a crash but little growth. I think climate change is going to finally make an impact on all kinds of real estate investment decisions (avoid the south for heat/hurricanes/floods, avoid the west for wildfires/air quality, avoid flooding risks on the east coast - incl. NY) now that the crazy-low interest rates are no longer making risky decisions tenable. I think people in high risk areas may have a hard time selling.

Some of my thoughts may be a little longer term than 5 years, but as an over-50 person, I know the future comes at you quick.

This was very good

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:52
Slightly educated guesses:

Market: Unless there's another major socio-political event, I think we're nearing bottom now but it won't be a V-shaped recovery rather a bumpy lasting plateau that drags maybe for another year and then slow growth for awhile after that. I think the tech sector will be the leading edge of growth again just because there seems to be no way of slowing down how software/AI is eating the world. No other trend seems remotely as primary. Climate change will just accelerate software growth.

I think the feds will stop interest rate increases before 5% and most of the increases will be complete before June 2023 and then will hold steady.

Jobs: Employment in the US has remained really robust. I think the demographic shifts with boomers retiring and smaller populations entering the workforce will mean unemployment rates remain low. Automation is a longer term trend working against unemployment, hard to say how much it will counter this in the next 5 years.

Real Estate: I don't think we've absorbed at all what indefinite remote working means for commercial real estate. As for housing, I don't expect a crash but little growth. I think climate change is going to finally make an impact on all kinds of real estate investment decisions (avoid the south for heat/hurricanes/floods, avoid the west for wildfires/air quality, avoid flooding risks on the east coast - incl. NY) now that the crazy-low interest rates are no longer making risky decisions tenable. I think people in high risk areas may have a hard time selling.

Some of my thoughts may be a little longer term than 5 years, but as an over-50 person, I know the future comes at you quick.

Very reasonable thoughts all around.

[Anonymous]

OP here. Very interesting though provoking comments. Regarding comm real estate; I do wonder if all those commercial units will eventually partly c convert to mixed use residential condos. Higher supply might soften prices even more.

[Anonymous]

War with China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea and collapse of the globe.

1.8 billion deaths.

Jobs will be Americans in factories manufacturing bullets, planes, tanks, and ships.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:War with China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea and collapse of the globe.

1.8 billion deaths.

Jobs will be Americans in factories manufacturing bullets, planes, tanks, and ships.

I don't think we will get to allied vs axis ww2 situation again. But your comment is interesting BC after all, ww2 was good for the us economy after the depressed 1930s. Stock market numbers through the war show it all.