What did Ian do to the Florida Real Estate Market?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think insurance is going to be a factor across the state. Someone is going to have to pay the billions in claims. I do think the market will be affected.

It does not really work that way. Increase next year does not compensate for this year. Each year is its own thing. Take say State Farm -- they keep some of their risk and see other risk to others. So while they could take a beating its not that bad. The investors whether reinsurance or others take a fair amount as well. Next year is its own thing but they will want a premium in case this happens again.

I think it likely that the State will take action to limit policy increases.

If the state tries to limit increases they'll see even more insurance companies pull out.

[Anonymous]

We don't know how it'll affect things yet.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/real-estate/2022/10/05/will-hurricane-ian-cut-floridas-gulf-coast-boom-short/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Climate change is not a thing in Florida. The governor fudges the death toll numbers and Federal tax dollars come in and it's all good.

You are correct that climate change has not affected the number or severity of hurricanes. Despite the NYT's attempt to manipulate the numbers by focusing on the numbers since 1980 (which was a lull), hurricane frequency and intensity are not increasing. The NOAA Director got pounded on for saying this the other day, but he is correct. (Not to mention that our ability to identify hurricanes has increased due to modern satellite technology.)

https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-tropical-cyclone-activity

[Anonymous]

The biggest impact on real estate in the area is that many of the less affluent owners of those small, older houses will not be able to afford to rebuild to modern hurricane code standards. When you look at the aerial photographs of the damage, it is striking to see the difference between the houses that were built post-Andrew vs. the "old Florida" houses that were completely destroyed.

I know someone who has a newer condo on Ft. Meyer's beach that had storm shutters and their unit is completely undamaged. The bottom floor of the building was flooded, but most of the modern buildings were built with that possibility in mind. I know someone who built a waterfront house in Mexico Beach that took a direct hit from Category 5 Hurricane Michael and the house survived, while all around the bare slabs of older houses. Houses will be built there, but they're going to be homes or condos that are built to modern code and flood insurance standards and will be correspondingly more expensive.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Climate change is not a thing in Florida. The governor fudges the death toll numbers and Federal tax dollars come in and it's all good.

You are correct that climate change has not affected the number or severity of hurricanes. Despite the NYT's attempt to manipulate the numbers by focusing on the numbers since 1980 (which was a lull), hurricane frequency and intensity are not increasing. The NOAA Director got pounded on for saying this the other day, but he is correct. (Not to mention that our ability to identify hurricanes has increased due to modern satellite technology.)

https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-tropical-cyclone-activity

I think we've all now realized how the EPA can become politicized during Trump's admin.

The impact on hurricanes by global warming is not what you expect, but it does have an impact.

https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/how-climate-change-is-fueling-hurricanes-2022-09-20/

Yes, climate change is making hurricanes wetter, windier and altogether more intense. There is also evidence that it is causing storms to travel more slowly, meaning they can dump more water in one place

If it weren't for the oceans, the planet would be much hotter due to climate change. But in the last 40 years, the ocean has absorbed about 90% of the warming caused by heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions. Much of this ocean heat is contained near the water's surface. This additional heat can fuel a storm's intensity and power stronger winds.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/can-we-expect-atlantic-hurricanes-change-over-coming-century-due-global-warming

This bears repeating: global warming due to increasing greenhouse gases may lead to fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic, although their peak winds are expected to increase a few percent. The mechanism for fewer Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes with climate warming in most model projections is not a fully settled issue in climate science.

so, while it's not settled theory, there is some concession that global warming will increase the strength of the winds though not the frequency of hurricanes.

[Anonymous]

Some people are leaving for good. Others haven't learned their lesson yet.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/hurricane-ian-survivor-naples-never-164612755.html

[Anonymous]

The water is more damaging than the wind. Central Florida is in bad shape. Lots of destroyed houses from water and eventually mold. It will be a flippers dream zone and buyer beware will mean you’ve got to be very very aware!

In CA, when fires hit it has a split impact on real estate. The towns see a huge spike in demand with people looking to rent or move closer in. The market fr houses on the outskirts of towns or in the mountains stalls but then goes back up about a year later. Most people don’t want to relocate to an entirely new area. It does create more demand. The insurance rates push others out and keep some from moving there.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Climate change is not a thing in Florida. The governor fudges the death toll numbers and Federal tax dollars come in and it's all good.

You are correct that climate change has not affected the number or severity of hurricanes. Despite the NYT's attempt to manipulate the numbers by focusing on the numbers since 1980 (which was a lull), hurricane frequency and intensity are not increasing. The NOAA Director got pounded on for saying this the other day, but he is correct. (Not to mention that our ability to identify hurricanes has increased due to modern satellite technology.)

https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-tropical-cyclone-activity

I think we've all now realized how the EPA can become politicized during Trump's admin.

The impact on hurricanes by global warming is not what you expect, but it does have an impact.

https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/how-climate-change-is-fueling-hurricanes-2022-09-20/

Yes, climate change is making hurricanes wetter, windier and altogether more intense. There is also evidence that it is causing storms to travel more slowly, meaning they can dump more water in one place

If it weren't for the oceans, the planet would be much hotter due to climate change. But in the last 40 years, the ocean has absorbed about 90% of the warming caused by heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions. Much of this ocean heat is contained near the water's surface. This additional heat can fuel a storm's intensity and power stronger winds.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/can-we-expect-atlantic-hurricanes-change-over-coming-century-due-global-warming

This bears repeating: global warming due to increasing greenhouse gases may lead to fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic, although their peak winds are expected to increase a few percent. The mechanism for fewer Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes with climate warming in most model projections is not a fully settled issue in climate science.

so, while it's not settled theory, there is some concession that global warming will increase the strength of the winds though not the frequency of hurricanes.

So, in other words, some scientists have theorized that hurricanes *may* become stronger in the future, but there is not yet any scientific consensus this issue (much less data). Despite what the NYT and others try to claim. It is interesting that you try to blame Trump propaganda for actual data on EPA's web site (I guess the Biden Administration hasn't looked to see what's there?).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Climate change is not a thing in Florida. The governor fudges the death toll numbers and Federal tax dollars come in and it's all good.

You are correct that climate change has not affected the number or severity of hurricanes. Despite the NYT's attempt to manipulate the numbers by focusing on the numbers since 1980 (which was a lull), hurricane frequency and intensity are not increasing. The NOAA Director got pounded on for saying this the other day, but he is correct. (Not to mention that our ability to identify hurricanes has increased due to modern satellite technology.)

https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-tropical-cyclone-activity

I think we've all now realized how the EPA can become politicized during Trump's admin.

The impact on hurricanes by global warming is not what you expect, but it does have an impact.

https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/how-climate-change-is-fueling-hurricanes-2022-09-20/

Yes, climate change is making hurricanes wetter, windier and altogether more intense. There is also evidence that it is causing storms to travel more slowly, meaning they can dump more water in one place

If it weren't for the oceans, the planet would be much hotter due to climate change. But in the last 40 years, the ocean has absorbed about 90% of the warming caused by heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions. Much of this ocean heat is contained near the water's surface. This additional heat can fuel a storm's intensity and power stronger winds.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/can-we-expect-atlantic-hurricanes-change-over-coming-century-due-global-warming

This bears repeating: global warming due to increasing greenhouse gases may lead to fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic, although their peak winds are expected to increase a few percent. The mechanism for fewer Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes with climate warming in most model projections is not a fully settled issue in climate science.

so, while it's not settled theory, there is some concession that global warming will increase the strength of the winds though not the frequency of hurricanes.

So, in other words, some scientists have theorized that hurricanes *may* become stronger in the future, but there is not yet any scientific consensus this issue (much less data). Despite what the NYT and others try to claim. It is interesting that you try to blame Trump propaganda for actual data on EPA's web site (I guess the Biden Administration hasn't looked to see what's there?).

Well, they are intensifying faster.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Climate change is not a thing in Florida. The governor fudges the death toll numbers and Federal tax dollars come in and it's all good.

You are correct that climate change has not affected the number or severity of hurricanes. Despite the NYT's attempt to manipulate the numbers by focusing on the numbers since 1980 (which was a lull), hurricane frequency and intensity are not increasing. The NOAA Director got pounded on for saying this the other day, but he is correct. (Not to mention that our ability to identify hurricanes has increased due to modern satellite technology.)

https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-tropical-cyclone-activity

I think we've all now realized how the EPA can become politicized during Trump's admin.

The impact on hurricanes by global warming is not what you expect, but it does have an impact.

https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/how-climate-change-is-fueling-hurricanes-2022-09-20/

Yes, climate change is making hurricanes wetter, windier and altogether more intense. There is also evidence that it is causing storms to travel more slowly, meaning they can dump more water in one place

If it weren't for the oceans, the planet would be much hotter due to climate change. But in the last 40 years, the ocean has absorbed about 90% of the warming caused by heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions. Much of this ocean heat is contained near the water's surface. This additional heat can fuel a storm's intensity and power stronger winds.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/can-we-expect-atlantic-hurricanes-change-over-coming-century-due-global-warming

This bears repeating: global warming due to increasing greenhouse gases may lead to fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic, although their peak winds are expected to increase a few percent. The mechanism for fewer Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes with climate warming in most model projections is not a fully settled issue in climate science.

so, while it's not settled theory, there is some concession that global warming will increase the strength of the winds though not the frequency of hurricanes.

So, in other words, some scientists have theorized that hurricanes *may* become stronger in the future, but there is not yet any scientific consensus this issue (much less data). Despite what the NYT and others try to claim. It is interesting that you try to blame Trump propaganda for actual data on EPA's web site (I guess the Biden Administration hasn't looked to see what's there?).

Well, they are intensifying faster.

+1 even ^PP's own EPA shows that:

According to the total annual ACE Index, cyclone intensity has risen noticeably over the past 20 years, and eight of the 10 most active years since 1950 have occurred since the mid-1990s (see Figure 2). Relatively high levels of cyclone activity were also seen during the 1950s and 1960s.
The PDI (see Figure 3) shows fluctuating cyclone intensity for most of the mid- to late 20th century, followed by a noticeable increase since 1995 (similar to the ACE Index). These trends are shown with associated variations in sea surface temperature in the tropical North Atlantic for comparison (see Figure 3).

This also matches with what I posted from climate.gov and reuters.

But yes, now we have to even question what the EPA says because Trump politicized not only the EPA but also NOAA, too. At least Biden isn't so free with his sharpie.

[Anonymous]

Climate change makes hurricanes wetter. It’s the intensity and amount of rain that leaves the lasting damage.

It’s similar to forest fires. Climate change raises the temperature and when combined with low precipitation dries out all the vegetation for vast areas. This creates fuel for fires making them easier to start and increasing their intensity so they can’t be stopped.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Climate change makes hurricanes wetter. It’s the intensity and amount of rain that leaves the lasting damage.

It’s similar to forest fires. Climate change raises the temperature and when combined with low precipitation dries out all the vegetation for vast areas. This creates fuel for fires making them easier to start and increasing their intensity so they can’t be stopped.

No poor forest management by White settlers is finally catching up with you.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Climate change makes hurricanes wetter. It’s the intensity and amount of rain that leaves the lasting damage.

It’s similar to forest fires. Climate change raises the temperature and when combined with low precipitation dries out all the vegetation for vast areas. This creates fuel for fires making them easier to start and increasing their intensity so they can’t be stopped.

Anonymous wrote:No poor forest management by White settlers is finally catching up with you.

Some of both, really.

[Anonymous]

We're actually looking for a deal near the beach in Florida. I'm guessing it'll be a bulldoze piece of property where we can start from scratch and build to code. This might just be the in we've been waiting for.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think insurance is going to be a factor across the state. Someone is going to have to pay the billions in claims. I do think the market will be affected.

Same. The impact will be the insurance costs.