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Montgomery County Public Schools (MCPS)
Correct. Personal opinion is that it's like a ripple in a global pond that bounces around. If you remove protections (making the pond very still) and try to play politics with an apolitical virus, the chances of more serious consequences are heightened. Until the variants have died out all over the world (since we're all interconnected now), mutations can be an overnight game-changer. Teaching children to downplay the issue is not the right thing to do. It's also possible that vaccination or boosting may only be partially effective or maybe even not effective at all. It depends on whether the spike proteins were the same or similar to prior strains. Enough mutation and the vaccination protection is questionable. There is also the possibility that vaccinated people get tired of boosting, the same way people get tired of wearing masks. Be honest, before the pandemic, how many people skipped their flu shots? Truth be told, I skipped many years worth of flu shots myself. In my opinion, the only reason why we were relatively lucky with Omicron is because it replicated best in the upper respiratory area and didn't have the same mortality rate as delta. Banking on that in the future is nothing better than gambling, and I never liked the house odds. The math is stacked against us right now, maybe not this summer, but my guess is in the upcoming fall. I'm personally not against anyone who wants to not wear a mask, but I do feel sorry for their children. Their children will be the ones suffering the consequences of their family's ignorance or pride / vanity, as the case may be. It's sad, but all you can do is leave them alone and let them find out the hard way. With the constant rain all coming up, and over a third of the schools past the 3% infection mark, the odds don't look good if your kids are unmasking and eating in the cafeteria. All you can do is keep masking indoors, since MCPS is too stubborn to go hybrid and dodge the bullet. You're doing the right thing and everyone good luck this week! |
Fake news? That’s directly from the CDC data for the most recent week that data is available: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status It isn’t at odds with what you said, though. As I said in my post, this is the weekly covid mortality rate for the 18-50 year old demographic that has been boosted. Old people are at higher risk. Unvaccinated people are at higher risk. Old, unvaccinated people are at really high risk. |
I see. Your point is that if you do a very narrow selection of data, you can maximize your opinion? That's fine. Why don't you volunteer to your local hospital and have any body bag for under 18 and over 50 dumped at your front door? How dare you minimize the lives of people. You really are a pathetic person who lacks a moral center. May God help you. |
I agree with most of what you said but what is the end result? If it will always be around and mutating that means one cannot avoid Covid in whatever mutation it is forever. Can we truly mask/avoid high risk situations forever? |
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🥱 cases will peak soon and come down for summer. Just like last year and 2020. Covid has a flu risk profile now for adults because of vax and pax. We don’t upend society for flu. If you want to control the movements and behaviors of fellow citizens look into work visas to China. It might be more your speed. Also, I just spent two weeks traveling to medium
Sizes cites in the Midwest. It’s over. And BTW mask wearing at Reagan national was 1 in 15 generously. People are done. Pandemics have a medical end and a social end. I would argue medical end is here but no serious dispute social end is definitely here. Find a new hobby horse. Did the shiny leaked opinion not spark your interest? |
The odds don’t look good for kids?
Have you looked at the mortality and hospitalization rates in kids? The odds look fine. |
There are several possible outcomes. (a) a true cure is developed and distributed. This is an unlikely outcome, since it would be cost and logistically prohibitive to have everyone in the world take all medication at once. (b) the virus dies out itself. This is also an unlikely outcome, since the virus has shown a remarkable ability to mutate (in one study over 50 mutations in a six-month period in a immunocompromized person. (c) the politics wins. Unmasking is common and the Government gives up on the virus, focusing on bigger concerns. I believe this is the worst possible scenario. Studies have shown actual damage to lungs and internal organs that may not completely heal. This means that there will be a cumulative effect until one day people just realize the damage to their body is too great (ex. think "long-term smoker"). This would be a likely scenario for children now, imho. (d) a measured long-term approach. What is a measured, long-term approach? Glad you asked. Long-term, indoor masking is required. If a teacher complains they want to wear a mask but a student can't hear them in the back, get them a karaoke machine or speaker. If a teacher doesn't want to wear a mask, get them a spit shield. If MCPS CO says they can't pay for it, remind them they received covid grants (and this was what the money was supposed to be for). There was another alternative to masking. Had MCPS used covid funds to improve building ventilation (ex. overdesign a negative pressure updraft, for example, where you could feel a breeze going up to the ceiling while being still), then a simple face shield could have worked, but that ship sailed. The money was wasted and there probably won't be any more forthcoming. Hopefully this will be included in future building renovation designs? Over this summer, MCPS works up a formal game plan for hybrid dynamic response. The local officials establish stair-step ground rules and communicate them out to the community with meetings and surveys. There are many variations of how hybrid could be set up. Ex. Provisions are made to identify in advance the children who's parents cannot take time off from work for in-person learning. They're identified in advance of the school year and a formal plan is made to accommodate them even in the worst possible conditions. For everyone else, I'd recommend separating the kids into Groups. (ex. might be their lunchroom groups, or PE groups, could be determined at the P level that makes sense. Parents are told that when a school goes hybrid, the kids in Group 1 will be remote M,W,F and Group 2 remote T,Th,F. This will permit better spacing to occur in the classroom and crowded busses, while allowing kids to do in-class labs, etc. Classrooms are set up for simultaneous remote learning. MCPS monitors and publishes real data (like they did prior to March 1st). The monitoring is to watch for spikes. When spikes occur, MCPS needs to dynamically react by going (a) hybrid for contact exposed (ex. a band class, a PE class, a classroom, etc), once infection rates reach X infections (this could be set as a community wide agreement with parents, but my recommendation is ex. 3 in a single classroom). If infections continue to rise and exceed Y%, this means there is a possibility of more serious issues and hybrid goes into effect for the school. If infections continue to rise, or deaths begin as a result (think a really bad deltacron mutation, which we haven't seen yet), the affected school goes a full two-weeks. Yes, this does prioritize health over the educational experience, but MCPS has already allocated funding for summer programs, tutoring, after-school / weekend programs. Students and parents are told that not meeting academic milestones / objectives will trigger automatic enrollment into one of these options. I would argue that having a sold, well-thought-out plan goes a long way towards acceptance by students and parents alike. Feel free to attack this, or say it's complicated, but it's better to be prepared than gripping the table hoping crossing your fingers as the parents are yelling at you. |
Under the assumption that: a child will not experience multiple reinfections, mild covid does not cause cumulative lung scarring or organ damage, and covid does not mutate into a more virulent or strain previously unrecognized by the body's immune system, then I might agree. Do I think that not planning for or accounting for any of these possibilities is foolish? Yes. I still remember people spewing off phrases like "covid is like the flu" or "there are only six cases in the U.S." or "why do we care, it's only in China" or "covid is done" in 2020, then 2021, and now. I'm just rendering an opinion based upon the science I've read and the math. Feel free to think whatever you want to. |
This is far more contagious and deadly than the flu but all the mitigation made the flu much less these past two years. So, by your argument we should keep precautions. Denial does not mean it’s over. Maybe you should spend the time with your kids vs traveling. Is your home life that bad? |
How do you explain that 75% of kids have had covid, some multiple times, and severe and/or long-term outcomes are quite rare? |
Don’t worry. PP will continue to move the goalposts and cite 5,000,000 more examples of how we can completely eradicate this virus, and how if you don’t wear a mask for the next 10 years she feels so sorry for your guinea pig children. Just wait for it. |
+1. Covid is to the far left as climate change is to the far right. |
CDC doesn’t report weekly mortality rates broken down by vaccination status, but if you look at them all kids regardless of vaccination status, they're still at lower risk than boosted adults 18-49. I don't understand why you think it is unreasonable to look specifically at the risk for vaccinated/boosted adults. If someone is concerned about covid, they should get vaccinated. I feel sorry for the family and friends that the antivaxxers leave behind, but we shouldn't let them stop the rest of society from moving on with their lives. |
What are your ideas for such? Will you be posting them? |
I really do appreciate this detailed and thoughtful answer. I wish everyone was so clear about what they’re looking for. I think there are a lot of people in the middle on covid restrictions and policies. They don’t like them, but generally willing to put up with them a little bit longer if need be. But this PP is arguing for permanent covid restrictions, including indoor masking and ongoing threats of virtual school. There aren't many people left that would consider that a sensiblle tradeoff for slightly reduced risks from a disease that is already in the neighborhood of the risks we've long faced from the flu (for vaccinated individuals and kids). |