Is Korea going to war?

[Anonymous]

N. Korea fires on S. Korea, killing 2 and injuring more than a dozen

http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/11/23/nkorea.skorea.military.fire/index.html?hpt=T1&iref=BN1

[jsteele]

The North Koreans are like children who cause trouble to get attention. It looks like they haven't been getting as much love as they desire and have, therefore, been doing things to say, "hey, look at me!". First they allowed an American scientist to see their previously-unknown-about centrifuges, probably expecting that to cause some major league you-know-what to hit the fan. When nobody seemed to care, they decided to get violent.

The difficulty in such situations is how to respond. To turn around and give them attention would vindicate their tactics. To ignore them will likely cause them to escalate things further. A violent response could well cause things to get out of hand. It's a time for intelligent people to make clever decisions. Hopefully, our leaders are up to it.

[Anonymous]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/southkorea/8153291/South-Korea-warns-North-Korea-it-will-sternly-retaliate-to-any-further-provocation.html

[Anonymous]

Russia sees 'colossal danger' of Korea escalation

MINSK | Tue Nov 23, 2010 5:28am EST
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE6AM0U520101123

Nov 23 (Reuters) - Russia sees a 'colossal danger' of an escalation in fighting on the Korean peninsula after North Korea's artillery attacked a South Korean island on Tuesday, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.

"It is necessary to immediately end all strikes. There is a colossal danger which must be avoided. Tensions in the region are growing," Lavrov told reporters during a visit to the Belarussian capital Minsk.

[Anonymous]

jsteele wrote:The North Koreans are like children who cause trouble to get attention. It looks like they haven't been getting as much love as they desire and have, therefore, been doing things to say, "hey, look at me!". First they allowed an American scientist to see their previously-unknown-about centrifuges, probably expecting that to cause some major league you-know-what to hit the fan. When nobody seemed to care, they decided to get violent.

The difficulty in such situations is how to respond. To turn around and give them attention would vindicate their tactics. To ignore them will likely cause them to escalate things further. A violent response could well cause things to get out of hand. It's a time for intelligent people to make clever decisions. Hopefully, our leaders are up to it.

I would go further than comparing them to children. They are nutty and out of step with the rest of the world. Due to isolation, they lack self control and perspective. Way back, China used to be called "sick man of Asia". I call North Korea, the "crazy man of Asia". It's difficult to know how they will react to any actions from the West and S Korea.

[Anonymous]

Things are not as simple as some of these posts make them out to be.

South Korea was conducting firing exercises in a disputed maritime border area. North Korea had warned them against this. This also follows recent military exercises in the summer which the U.S. participated in, and which were in response to the sinking of the South Korean vessel earlier.

These actions involve deliberate muscle-flexing on both sides, and they are an attempt to shape diplomatic negotiations. They could get out of control, you never know, but this is all about posture.

Don't get me wrong, I am not excusing North Korea. But this is not a matter of merely insane or childish behavior. This is more calculated than that.

[Anonymous]

jsteele wrote:The North Koreans are like children who cause trouble to get attention. It looks like they haven't been getting as much love as they desire and have, therefore, been doing things to say, "hey, look at me!". First they allowed an American scientist to see their previously-unknown-about centrifuges, probably expecting that to cause some major league you-know-what to hit the fan. When nobody seemed to care, they decided to get violent.

The difficulty in such situations is how to respond. To turn around and give them attention would vindicate their tactics. To ignore them will likely cause them to escalate things further. A violent response could well cause things to get out of hand. It's a time for intelligent people to make clever decisions. Hopefully, our leaders are up to it.

I guess my disagreements with Mr. Steele cease at the water's edge. He's quite correct, but underestimates the intractability of the problem. The combination of the U.S. and South Korean military could wipe North Korea off the map in a matter of weeks. Two problems: (1) short of a nuclear first strike by the U.S., North Korea could level Seoul and cause lots of other problems, (2) North Korea sits right on the border of China, which would react none too kindly to a massive U.S. invasion force landing in North Korea, creating a huge risk of misunderstandings/accidental engagement between U.S. and Chinese forces, etc. Also effectively rules out use of nuclear weapons to eliminate North Korean forces immediately.

There is no military solution here, and the North Koreans know it. They will cause trouble, again; they will be bought off, again; and the cycle will continue until N. Korea implodes from within, or until the Chinese find them to be more trouble than they are worth.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Things are not as simple as some of these posts make them out to be.

South Korea was conducting firing exercises in a disputed maritime border area. North Korea had warned them against this. This also follows recent military exercises in the summer which the U.S. participated in, and which were in response to the sinking of the South Korean vessel earlier.

These actions involve deliberate muscle-flexing on both sides, and they are an attempt to shape diplomatic negotiations. They could get out of control, you never know, but this is all about posture.

Don't get me wrong, I am not excusing North Korea. But this is not a matter of merely insane or childish behavior. This is more calculated than that.

Not to belittle the intractable situation, but events like this suggest that North Korea needs some more money. They get bought off about every 7-8 years until their till is empty, then they start all over again. Any reason why deep -in-the-night assassinations can't take place?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Things are not as simple as some of these posts make them out to be.

South Korea was conducting firing exercises in a disputed maritime border area. North Korea had warned them against this. This also follows recent military exercises in the summer which the U.S. participated in, and which were in response to the sinking of the South Korean vessel earlier.

These actions involve deliberate muscle-flexing on both sides, and they are an attempt to shape diplomatic negotiations. They could get out of control, you never know, but this is all about posture.

Don't get me wrong, I am not excusing North Korea. But this is not a matter of merely insane or childish behavior. This is more calculated than that.

Not to belittle the intractable situation, but events like this suggest that North Korea needs some more money. They get bought off about every 7-8 years until their till is empty, then they start all over again. Any reason why deep -in-the-night assassinations can't take place?

My guess is that it would be very hard to recruit assassins for such a mission and it would be very difficult for them to succeed. And what does that buy you? Likely an even more unstable North Korea. The current equilibrium, while distasteful, seems to me the best practical option.

[Anonymous]

North Korea isn't a peaceful country with a bad leader. There is conflict that extends far beyond a single personality.

There is an economic element to it. North Korea is shut out of the global economy, to a very large degree. And they have a lot of domestic economic problems. So yes, a lot of the global political situation is tied to the economy.

[Anonymous]

Will reunification be a realistic possibility in the (near?) future?

[Anonymous]

Tension grows on Korean Peninsula

http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2010/s3076243.htm

November 25, 2010

[snip]

STEPHEN MCDONELL: Well I mean to give you an idea of the size of this exercise - mind you this was a pre-planned exercise so they are still going ahead with something that was already in the pipeline but saying they're going to potentially beef it up a bit.

But a nuclear powered aircraft carrier the USS George Washington is going to be involved. That's got 75 planes on it and a crew of 6,000.

Now when you bring an aircraft carrier into these sorts of war games it also has an aircraft carrier battle group that comes with it. Now that battle group has left Japan from the south of Tokyo and headed here to take part in this huge naval exercise they're talking about with the South Koreans.

Now again as you mentioned in the introduction this is what sparked the problem in the first place when South Koreans were firing according to North Korea into their sea. And they responded with dozens of shells being fired back onto a civilian target.

But the potential for this to anger North Korea you would have to think is huge.

ELEANOR HALL: Well how is North Korea responding to this announcement?

STEPHEN MCDONELL: Well we haven't heard anything yet from them except that in the past North Korea and also interestingly China has warned that this should not take place, especially the involvement of the USS George Washington.

China and North Korea are both not happy with this. So it really has the potential to increase tension here.

ELEANOR HALL: That's an interesting signal from China isn't it?

STEPHEN MCDONELL: Yeah indeed and that's the crucial player in this in a way. The US if they're ever going to be able to wind back North Korea, China is the country, the one country that has some sway over North Korea.

And if they're going to annoy China well the chances of China swinging behind any attempt to try and encourage North Korea to stop this type of behaviour like firing shells across the border, it's going to be hard to get them to do that if they're angry at the behaviour of the US.

[Anonymous]

US naval exercise could bring war, says North Korea

Peter Foster
November 27, 2010
http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-naval-exercise-could-bring-war-says-north-korea-20101126-18al6.html

BEIJING: North Korea has said plans for a US-South Korean naval exercise tomorrow brings the peninsula ''closer to the brink of war'', its state media reported.

''The situation … is inching closer to the brink of war due to the reckless plan of those trigger-happy elements to stage again the war exercises targeted against [North Korea],'' the Korean Central News Agency said.

China has criticised US plans to hold the war games in the same terms used to rebuke North Korea after it bombarded a South Korean island this week, killing four people.

China's Foreign Ministry said it was ''concerned'' after the US said it would send an aircraft carrier strike group into the Yellow Sea.

more at link

[Anonymous]

Not good. That makes one more war for the US, too.

[Anonymous]

North Korean artillery drill escalates tension

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40375643/ns/world_news-asiapacific
11/26/2010

YEONPYEONG ISLAND, South Korea — Fresh artillery shots were heard Friday on the tense South Korean island of Yeonpyeong, three days after it was devastated by a North Korean attack and hours after Pyongyang warned that the peninsula was on the brink of war.

The blasts happened just after the top U.S. commander in South Korea, Gen. Walter Sharp, toured Yeonpyeong Island in a show of solidarity with Seoul and to survey damage from Tuesday's hail of North Korean artillery fire that killed four people.

An official at the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff said several new rounds of artillery fire were heard Friday on Yeonpyeong, which is just 7 miles south of the North Korean mainland. The military official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said several distant explosive sounds came from the direction of North Korea.

Reuters reported that no shells landed in South Korea. Yonhap news agency said it appeared to be a North Korean drill.

A U.S. military official told NBC News that "something was heard" but there was no indication of another attack on South Korea.

AP photographers at an observation point on the northwest side of Yeonpyeong heard about four explosions, and said they witnessed at least one flash of light on the North Korean mainland.

South Korea's YTN television network, citing an unidentified military official, said North Korea had fired up to 20 rounds. Yeonpyeong residents fled to shelters, the report said.

Only a few dozen residents remained on Yeonpyeong, with most of the population of 1,300 fleeing in the hours and days after Tuesday's attack and authorities urging them to evacuate.

Pyongyang's state news agency said drills this weekend involving South Korean forces and a U.S. nuclear powered supercarrier in Yellow Sea waters amount to a reckless move to target the North.

"The situation on the Korean peninsula is inching closer to the brink of war," the dispatch from the Korean Central News Agency said. "Gone are the days when verbal warnings are served only."

North Korea's army and people are "now greatly enraged" and "getting fully ready to give a shower of dreadful fire," the agency said. "Escalated confrontation would lead to a war, and he who is fond of playing with fire is bound to perish."

more at link