He's not playing 3 dimensional chess: WSJ article on Trump's decision-making process related to the Iran War

[Anonymous]

I realize most of us already know Trump's not a brilliant strategist, but this long, detailed article in the WSJ (unlocked) lays out the erratic way he makes decisions. It reinforces what we already know but adds some new details. The only thing I'm grateful about is learning that he really fears American troop casualties and therefore avoids dangerous missions that could put troops' lives at risk.

Behind Trump’s Public Bravado on the War, He Grapples With His Own Fears
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/trump-public-bravado-private-fear-59814dca?st=L726X3&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

I read the WSJ article and this summary from the tweet below is good. The only thing I would add that is not covered is that his most explosive Truth Socials posts (e.g., ending a civilization) were intended by him to

He is kept out of his own situation room.
When two American pilots are shot down in Iran and a high-risk rescue operation is launched, his aides exclude the President of the United States from the situation room. They call him at "significant moments." The stated reason: "his impatience wouldn’t be helpful." The commander in chief of a war is managed like an unpredictable child who’s kept away during critical moments.

His most explosive statements are part of no plan.
The improvised Easter tweet, the threat to "kill an entire civilization" in 12 hours is improvised too and was in no way part of a national security plan. In both cases: no consultation with the national security team or anyone else. Just Trump, alone, with his phone, reshaping the world order with Truth Social posts. [edited to add that Trump, by his own admission, makes crazy statements on TS to "seem as unstable and insulting as possible, believing it could bring the Iranians to the table, senior administration officials said. It was a language, he said, the Iranians would understand."]

He is haunted by Jimmy Carter. From the start of the conflict, the specter of 1979 haunts him. The hostage crisis. The helicopters stranded in the desert. The presidency destroyed. He talks about it endlessly to his advisors, to Republican lawmakers. "If you look at what happened with Jimmy Carter... with the helicopters and the hostages, it cost them the election."

He refused a key military operation out of fear of casualties. His generals proposed taking Kharg Island, the starting point for 90% of Iranian oil exports. He didn’t want to hear about it.

On the other hand, he busies himself with his "ballroom" during crises. While the world awaits his ultimatum to "destroy Iranian civilization," Trump pulls out the plans for his ballroom under construction on the White House lawns. He has meetings on the subject several times a week. He considers himself the "general contractor."

On the evening he threatens to destroy a nation of 90 million people, he shows donors the drawings of the hole they’re going to dig under the White House. He marvels at everything that could be built below.

He’s considering awarding himself the Medal of Honor. The highest American military decoration, awarded for bravery and sacrifice at the risk of one’s life. In front of donors and staff members, Trump publicly muses that he deserves it. His justification? During a flight in Iraq in his first term, the plane landed in the dark on an unlit runway. He was terrified. The pilots reassured him and they landed. His lawyer present in the room says the rules wouldn’t allow it. Karoline Leavitt insists he was joking.

His own aides filter reality for him. Susie Wiles, his chief of staff, had to urge her colleagues to be "more frank with the boss" because they were systematically giving him an overly rosy view of the situation to avoid upsetting him.

[Anonymous]

Or

The reasons for going to war remain a state secret because it was Israel that had a chokehold over the Presidency.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Or

The reasons for going to war remain a state secret because it was Israel that had a chokehold over the Presidency.

Op here. The New York Times wrote an investigative piece on April 7 about Trump‘s decision to go to war. It discussed how Trump was ultimately convinced by Netanyahu to go to war. THIS article is about how he has been conducting the war since it started.

PS Not sure why the tweet I posted appears in French, but the original was an English.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I realize most of us already know Trump's not a brilliant strategist, but this long, detailed article in the WSJ (unlocked) lays out the erratic way he makes decisions. It reinforces what we already know but adds some new details. The only thing I'm grateful about is learning that he really fears American troop casualties and therefore avoids dangerous missions that could put troops' lives at risk.

Behind Trump’s Public Bravado on the War, He Grapples With His Own Fears
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/trump-public-bravado-private-fear-59814dca?st=L726X3&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

I read the WSJ article and this summary from the tweet below is good. The only thing I would add that is not covered is that his most explosive Truth Socials posts (e.g., ending a civilization) were intended by him to

He is kept out of his own situation room.
When two American pilots are shot down in Iran and a high-risk rescue operation is launched, his aides exclude the President of the United States from the situation room. They call him at "significant moments." The stated reason: "his impatience wouldn’t be helpful." The commander in chief of a war is managed like an unpredictable child who’s kept away during critical moments.

His most explosive statements are part of no plan.
The improvised Easter tweet, the threat to "kill an entire civilization" in 12 hours is improvised too and was in no way part of a national security plan. In both cases: no consultation with the national security team or anyone else. Just Trump, alone, with his phone, reshaping the world order with Truth Social posts. [edited to add that Trump, by his own admission, makes crazy statements on TS to "seem as unstable and insulting as possible, believing it could bring the Iranians to the table, senior administration officials said. It was a language, he said, the Iranians would understand."]

He is haunted by Jimmy Carter. From the start of the conflict, the specter of 1979 haunts him. The hostage crisis. The helicopters stranded in the desert. The presidency destroyed. He talks about it endlessly to his advisors, to Republican lawmakers. "If you look at what happened with Jimmy Carter... with the helicopters and the hostages, it cost them the election."

He refused a key military operation out of fear of casualties. His generals proposed taking Kharg Island, the starting point for 90% of Iranian oil exports. He didn’t want to hear about it.

On the other hand, he busies himself with his "ballroom" during crises. While the world awaits his ultimatum to "destroy Iranian civilization," Trump pulls out the plans for his ballroom under construction on the White House lawns. He has meetings on the subject several times a week. He considers himself the "general contractor."

On the evening he threatens to destroy a nation of 90 million people, he shows donors the drawings of the hole they’re going to dig under the White House. He marvels at everything that could be built below.

He’s considering awarding himself the Medal of Honor. The highest American military decoration, awarded for bravery and sacrifice at the risk of one’s life. In front of donors and staff members, Trump publicly muses that he deserves it. His justification? During a flight in Iraq in his first term, the plane landed in the dark on an unlit runway. He was terrified. The pilots reassured him and they landed. His lawyer present in the room says the rules wouldn’t allow it. Karoline Leavitt insists he was joking.

His own aides filter reality for him. Susie Wiles, his chief of staff, had to urge her colleagues to be "more frank with the boss" because they were systematically giving him an overly rosy view of the situation to avoid upsetting him.

Kharg Island would be a disaster. The US military might have given him a plan with a list of estimated casualties. That scared him off. Kharg Island as a possible invade site is always pushed by the idiots.

[Anonymous]

“JUST IN: Iran just publicly told President Trump to "book an appointment with a qualified psychiatrist" and log off his phone after he claimed total victory over them on social media.”

They aren’t good guys, but toy can’t fault the accuracy.

[Anonymous]

OP, why do you believe Trump's own explanation for his irrational Truths? It is much more believable that he was acting angry and impulsive and is nows rationalizing the behavior. Why credit him with strategy, even a dumb strategy?

[Anonymous]

This doesn't go far enough. The headlines need to include "cognitive decline" or "dementia".

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:“JUST IN: Iran just publicly told President Trump to "book an appointment with a qualified psychiatrist" and log off his phone after he claimed total victory over them on social media.”

They aren’t good guys, but toy can’t fault the accuracy.

Sounds like they're not being his act of sounding crazy or erratic as a way to force the to the negotiation table. I mean, he IS unhinged and erratic, but he also consciously plays the role when it comes to some foreign policy moves. He thinks he's being clever.

[Anonymous]

I’m glad Trump is very casualty avoidant. The recklessness with American lives during the stupid war with Iraq is a blight on Bush and Republicans and all those Democrats that supported it - like Clinton.

But Trump is such a weirdo. Both high risk and no risk.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I’m glad Trump is very casualty avoidant. The recklessness with American lives during the stupid war with Iraq is a blight on Bush and Republicans and all those Democrats that supported it - like Clinton.

But Trump is such a weirdo. Both high risk and no risk.

But unfortunately he isn't expense avoidant and unfortunately he is completely blind to future risk.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Or

The reasons for going to war remain a state secret because it was Israel that had a chokehold over the Presidency.

That’s not a state secret. The Secretary of State literally said that at the beginning of this war.

People really have short memories.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:“JUST IN: Iran just publicly told President Trump to "book an appointment with a qualified psychiatrist" and log off his phone after he claimed total victory over them on social media.”

They aren’t good guys, but toy can’t fault the accuracy.

Seriously. Put that in your truth social and smoke it Trump

[Anonymous]

Why. is he still president if he's kept out of the sit room during a war decision?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Why. is he still president if he's kept out of the sit room during a war decision?

Because in the US, unlike in most advanced democracies, we have to wait until the end of a four year presidential term to change out an ineffective or highly unpopular president.

In most advanced parliamentary democracies (eg., UK, Canada, Australia, Germany, etc.), the head of government (prime minister) can be removed relatively quickly if they are unpopular or ineffective through actions such as:

- Vote of no confidence in parliament which forces resignation or triggers snap elections
- Party internal pressure or loss of majority support often leads to resignation without the need for a full vote
- A good example is the UK’s PM Liz Truss who resigned after 45 days due to economic backlash and an internal party revolt (no formal no-confidence vote was needed).

I can’t imagine any scenario at all under which the current GOP would remove a clearly demented, mentally ill, highly ineffective, unpopular and dangerous president from office.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why. is he still president if he's kept out of the sit room during a war decision?

Because in the US, unlike in most advanced democracies, we have to wait until the end of a four year presidential term to change out an ineffective or highly unpopular president.

In most advanced parliamentary democracies (eg., UK, Canada, Australia, Germany, etc.), the head of government (prime minister) can be removed relatively quickly if they are unpopular or ineffective through actions such as:

- Vote of no confidence in parliament which forces resignation or triggers snap elections
- Party internal pressure or loss of majority support often leads to resignation without the need for a full vote
- A good example is the UK’s PM Liz Truss who resigned after 45 days due to economic backlash and an internal party revolt (no formal no-confidence vote was needed).

I can’t imagine any scenario at all under which the current GOP would remove a clearly demented, mentally ill, highly ineffective, unpopular and dangerous president from office.

Not true. The 25th amendment exists for a reason. If the GOP had morals, they would use it to force him out, rather than have his team evict him from the decision-making process because he's not capable of keeping up with the people who are actually trying to make decisions.