Higher ED in 10 years, half of schools will close? or more?
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Anonymous
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Many small schools will not survive as enrollments decline exponentially due to natural demographics and AI making degrees much less useful.
Universities will pivot to "experience" models where only the top dogs will survive. And even those will change, making "degrees" obsolete and instead focusing on "creative, analytical thinking". Will it work? WTF knows but I think higher ED is heading for a major decline that will mirror the decline of the white collar worker. |
Anonymous
| I don’t think you know what exponentially means. |
Anonymous
+1 |
Anonymous
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Some schools will close. Not because of AI.
The people who can afford to send their kids to college without debt will continue to send them. Also, I don’t think the right answer to AI is that we don’t need our kids to learn anything because the Borg knows it. - sending DC to SLAC next year. No guarantees about future salary. Who knows, he may end up a construction worker if AI takes over all the white collar stuff (which it won’t) But he will be a thoughtful and critically-thinking construction worker. |
Anonymous
| College is about much more than learning a specific job role or career. |
Anonymous
DP, but use your googlefu to look it up in a dictionary. OP used it just fine. Whenever the "look I passed Algebra 1 crowd" tries to gatekeep on this word, I just roll my eyes. Do you always assume x^2? What about x^1? "Exponentially" doesn't necessarily mean "to the moon" or "going parabolic". |
Anonymous
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Perhaps a new model will emerge.
For example, trade schools with an “experience” component. |
Anonymous
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Ok but that is for them to figure out how to survive, no?
DC will go to college next year to continue his already strong education, possibly outside the US. If he does not like the education he's receiving he'll reassess and transfer if necessary. College is not a life or death decision. It's just a residential school for four years. |
Anonymous
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Higher Ed’s problem isn’t declining enrollment. Those same schools predicting to not survive in ten years were around with far fewer students 30/40/50 etc years ago.
The problem in higher ed is a business model that requires 5-6% or more operating expense growth year after year without a fund source that can grow at the same rate. Schools have been raising tuition, increasing enrollment, and depending on endowment investments in private equity. They are hitting a ceiling on how much people can or will pay, they are crammed to the brim so enrollment increases are challenging and PE is overvalued, likely to crash. |
Anonymous
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Higher Ed's problems are three fold 1)saturated with capacity. 2)COA rises way faster than inflation 3)ROI declining below COA.
It is logical decreased demand will lead to closures, that is already happening. AI will accelerate this trend. |
Anonymous
| Colleges you never thought of or have heard about will close. The t100 lacs are safe. State universities will consolidate resources and departments due to rising costs and ideology |
Anonymous
Exponentiall decreases are greatest near the initial state, then diminish with successive iterations. If this is what the OP meant, then fine. |
Anonymous
| Exponential. |
Anonymous
Yes. Exponential decay. |
Anonymous
That's why full pay national and international students are needed to finance schools for everyone. |