TJHSST 2025-26 Enrollment by FCPS Pyramid

[Anonymous]

FCPS has updated its capacity dashboard to reflect 2025-26 student transfers. The information indicates that enrollment by FCPS HS pyramid remains uneven, even after the 2021 TJ admissions changes have been fully phased in, with some pyramids sending considerably more kids to TJ than others.

These numbers reflect the pyramids in which TJ students reside this year, so some of these students may have never attended FCPS schools in these pyramids. For example, TJ is physically located within the Annandale pyramid, and some TJ families move into the Annandale pyramid after their students are admitted to TJ for proximity to the school.

The numbers do not add up to TJ's total enrollment because TJ also has students from other participating jurisdictions. From APS, there are 42, 34, and 32 TJ students this year who reside within the Yorktown, W-L, and Wakefield attendance areas, respectively.

McLean 152
Chantilly 125
Langley 119
Oakton 113
Woodson 104
Marshall 97
Westfield 71
West Springfield 67
Fairfax 64
Madison 59
Robinson 53
Annandale 48
Centreville 46
Lake Braddock 40
Hayfield 38
Edison 33
South Lakes 31
West Potomac 31
Lewis 29
Justice 27
South County 27
Falls Church 23
Herndon 23
Mount Vernon 19

[Anonymous]

The MS allotments were not meant to evenly distribute who attends TJ but to make sure that all kids have a chance of attending TJ. We know that there are MSs that don’t use their full allotments, the point is that there is the opportunity for kids from schools that are under represented at TJ who meet the basic requirements.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The MS allotments were not meant to evenly distribute who attends TJ but to make sure that all kids have a chance of attending TJ. We know that there are MSs that don’t use their full allotments, the point is that there is the opportunity for kids from schools that are under represented at TJ who meet the basic requirements.

It would be more accurate to say that the allotments were intended to ensure all middle schools had some representation, even if very small. It doesn't make sure that all kids, as a practical matter, have a chance of attending TJ, or would ever want to.

[Anonymous]

The following schools aren’t filling the 1.5% quota of students (or they don’t have 1.5% of the students from each 8th grade class remaining at TJ). Basically if a student applied to TJ from one of these schools over the past 4 years and had the minimum GPA/math and honors courses they were pretty much guaranteed admissions.

Lake Braddock 40 (1.5% would be 44-45 students)
Edison 33 (1.5% would be 33-34 students)
South Lakes 31 (1.5% would be 36-37 students)
West Potomac 31 (1.5% would be 39-40 students)
Justice 27 (1.5% would be 33-34 students)
South County 27 (1.5% would be 30-31 students)
Falls Church 23 (1.5% would be 30-31 students)
Herndon 23 (1.5% would be 31-32 students)
Mount Vernon 19 (1.5% would be 26-27 students)

The 1.5% # of students is probably slightly higher than my numbers as they round up each year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The following schools aren’t filling the 1.5% quota of students (or they don’t have 1.5% of the students from each 8th grade class remaining at TJ). Basically if a student applied to TJ from one of these schools over the past 4 years and had the minimum GPA/math and honors courses they were pretty much guaranteed admissions.

Lake Braddock 40 (1.5% would be 44-45 students)
Edison 33 (1.5% would be 33-34 students)
South Lakes 31 (1.5% would be 36-37 students)
West Potomac 31 (1.5% would be 39-40 students)
Justice 27 (1.5% would be 33-34 students)
South County 27 (1.5% would be 30-31 students)
Falls Church 23 (1.5% would be 30-31 students)
Herndon 23 (1.5% would be 31-32 students)
Mount Vernon 19 (1.5% would be 26-27 students)

The 1.5% # of students is probably slightly higher than my numbers as they round up each year.

The quotas are for middle schools so you could have middle schools filling their quotas in ways that benefit certain feeders but not others. So there are quotas for the middle school kids at Lake Braddock but if slots get taken by AAP kids from Robinson it makes LB look under-represented.

Or, to take another example, Falls Church may look under-represented if slots at Jackson are taken by AAP kids in the Oakton and Madison areas and slots at Poe are taken by kids zoned to Annandale. It doesn’t necessarily mean the middle schools aren’t using their quotas.

[Anonymous]

This analysis would be nice if it was by MS

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The following schools aren’t filling the 1.5% quota of students (or they don’t have 1.5% of the students from each 8th grade class remaining at TJ). Basically if a student applied to TJ from one of these schools over the past 4 years and had the minimum GPA/math and honors courses they were pretty much guaranteed admissions.

Lake Braddock 40 (1.5% would be 44-45 students)
Edison 33 (1.5% would be 33-34 students)
South Lakes 31 (1.5% would be 36-37 students)
West Potomac 31 (1.5% would be 39-40 students)
Justice 27 (1.5% would be 33-34 students)
South County 27 (1.5% would be 30-31 students)
Falls Church 23 (1.5% would be 30-31 students)
Herndon 23 (1.5% would be 31-32 students)
Mount Vernon 19 (1.5% would be 26-27 students)

The 1.5% # of students is probably slightly higher than my numbers as they round up each year.

Some kids from Carson attend SLHS, I am not sure how that would be counted in because so many kids attended TJ from Carson but might not be the SLHS kids. It would be interesting to know if they use the base HS as a part of the 1.5% quota, so kids attending SLHS at Carson migh tbe included in the 1.5% to increase the number of SLHS kids at TJ. I am not saying that they do that but it would make some sense. I have difficulty believing that Hughes sends it's full allotment to TJ and that is the only other MS that feeds into SLHS.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This analysis would be nice if it was by MS

I believe that they post the MS distribution each year. What they don't post is MS to base school numbers and a good number of MS are split feeders.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This analysis would be nice if it was by MS

It’s not really analysis. It’s just data as to where TJ students live.

Analysis would be explaining why the numbers vary so widely.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:FCPS has updated its capacity dashboard to reflect 2025-26 student transfers. The information indicates that enrollment by FCPS HS pyramid remains uneven, even after the 2021 TJ admissions changes have been fully phased in, with some pyramids sending considerably more kids to TJ than others.

These numbers reflect the pyramids in which TJ students reside this year, so some of these students may have never attended FCPS schools in these pyramids. For example, TJ is physically located within the Annandale pyramid, and some TJ families move into the Annandale pyramid after their students are admitted to TJ for proximity to the school.

The numbers do not add up to TJ's total enrollment because TJ also has students from other participating jurisdictions. From APS, there are 42, 34, and 32 TJ students this year who reside within the Yorktown, W-L, and Wakefield attendance areas, respectively.

McLean 152
Chantilly 125
Langley 119
Oakton 113
Woodson 104
Marshall 97
Westfield 71
West Springfield 67
Fairfax 64
Madison 59
Robinson 53
Annandale 48
Centreville 46
Lake Braddock 40
Hayfield 38
Edison 33
South Lakes 31
West Potomac 31
Lewis 29
Justice 27
South County 27
Falls Church 23
Herndon 23
Mount Vernon 19

The good news. The following is also pretty much the exact order of difficulty for a non-hooked student to get into T20

TJ
McLean 152
Chantilly 125
Langley 119
Oakton 113
Woodson 104
Marshall 97
Westfield 71
West Springfield 67
Fairfax 64
Madison 59
Robinson 53
Annandale 48
Centreville 46
Lake Braddock 40
Hayfield 38
Edison 33
South Lakes 31
West Potomac 31
Lewis 29
Justice 27
South County 27
Falls Church 23
Herndon 23
Mount Vernon 19

[Anonymous]

Hardly. T20 admits from the top TJ feeders are far more common than from the bottom schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Hardly. T20 admits from the top TJ feeders are far more common than from the bottom schools.

You need to adjust for the student/parent level as well. If a student who performed at the same level in these lower ranked schools, the student's chances are much higher compared to applying from TJ feeders.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Hardly. T20 admits from the top TJ feeders are far more common than from the bottom schools.

You need to adjust for the student/parent level as well. If a student who performed at the same level in these lower ranked schools, the student's chances are much higher compared to applying from TJ feeders.

That’s a big if. Students from the top pyramids end up performing better than they otherwise have because they’ve been with stronger peer groups. It’s why they get into both TJ and T20 schools in much higher numbers.

[Anonymous]

^ “otherwise would have”

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The MS allotments were not meant to evenly distribute who attends TJ but to make sure that all kids have a chance of attending TJ. We know that there are MSs that don’t use their full allotments, the point is that there is the opportunity for kids from schools that are under represented at TJ who meet the basic requirements.

It would be more accurate to say that the allotments were intended to ensure all middle schools had some representation, even if very small. It doesn't make sure that all kids, as a practical matter, have a chance of attending TJ, or would ever want to.

If you meet the minimum criteria for applying and you attend one of the Middle Schools that doesn't meet their allotment, then aren't you guaranteed a spot at TJ? And aren't these exactly the kids that go to TJ and drown in the rigor?