Initial Data Suggest Decrease In Black Freshman At Selective Colleges

[Anonymous]

James S. Murphy, director of career pathways and postsecondary policy at Education Reform Now, has built a post-SFFA enrollment tracker using data released by highly selective colleges and universities. The first edition of his tracker in 2024 tallied admission statistics for 38 colleges and universities. This year, as of October 25, Murphy’s tracker contains data from only 22 schools. While that number might inch up in the coming weeks, it’s unlikely it will reach the prior year’s level, an outcome Murphy found unsurprising.

Murphy compared the average percentage of admitted freshmen of different races for 2022-2023 — before the SFFA ruling — to fall, 2024 and 2025. Here are the results, showing the percent change (not the percentage point change) in the share of Black freshman for 2022/2023 compared to the average share for 2024/2025.

Amherst College -59%

Bates College +4%

CalTech -33%

Carleton College -30%

Colgate University -26%

Columbia University -38%

Cornell UniversitY -42%

Emory University -12%

Harvard University -34%

Haverford College -23%

MIT -44%

Princeton University -23%

Smith College +2%

Swarthmore College -33%

Tulane University -8%

U. North Carolina -24%

U. Southern California -19%

U. Virginia -20%

Washington University -29%

Wellesley College -40%

Williams College -14%

Yale University 0%

Of these 22 institutions, 20 showed a decline in the share of enrolled Black freshmen, with nine seeing decreases of 30% or more. Only Bates College reported an increase (4%), while Yale University saw essentially no change.

Hispanic Students. Twelve institutions reported a decline in the share of Hispanic freshmen, with the largest percentage losses at CalTech (-37%), Cornell University (-33%) and Wellesley College (-28%). Nine schools reported gains in the share of Hispanics, led by the University of Virginia with a 26% increase. Yale saw essentially no change.

Asian American Students. Twelve institutions saw increases in the share of incoming Asian American freshmen, ranging from a 2% gain at Washington University in St. Louis to a 30% increase at Columbia University. Nine institutions reported decreases, with the largest falloff at Carleton College (-11%). Princeton University reported basically no change.

White Students. The percentage of white students in the freshman class increased at nine institutions, with the largest gains at MIT (16%), Swarthmore (15%) and Amherst (14%). The share of white students decreased at seven schools, with the largest at Smith College (-11%) and the University of Southern California and Princeton (-9% each). For various methodological reasons, the data for five institutions were not reported.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeltnietzel/2025/10/27/early-data-suggest-decrease-in-black-freshman-at-selective-colleges/

[Anonymous]

And here is Murphy's enrollment tracker:

https://jamessmurphy.com/2025/09/15/the-2025-post-sffa-enrollment-tracker/

[Anonymous]

Interesting that numbers of white students decreased at 7 schools, and Asian students decreased at 9 schools.

[Anonymous]

I find the regional admissions officers at HYPSM to be super diverse. Issue is the heads of these offices tend to be very white. The people who have the biggest say in the committee room for final cuts.

[Anonymous]

They might be applying and/or yielding at lower rates to these "selective" schools too. If I were a black HS student, I would strongly lean toward an HBCU or at least, more racially diverse college, right now. They can see that black leaders are being targeted and fired throughout the federal gov't and military.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:They might be applying and/or yielding at lower rates to these "selective" schools too. If I were a black HS student, I would strongly lean toward an HBCU or at least, more racially diverse college, right now. They can see that black leaders are being targeted and fired throughout the federal gov't and military.

Well, Asians used to be less than 2% at most of the these 'selective' schools not too long ago, so.

[Anonymous]

The sky isn’t falling. Banning Affirmative Action simply means some of the students who were attending elite colleges now have to drop down a tier and attend merely very good colleges. So maybe some of the ones who previously attended Ivies now attend schools like NYU, Boston U, & U of Maryland.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The sky isn’t falling. Banning Affirmative Action simply means some of the students who were attending elite colleges now have to drop down a tier and attend merely very good colleges. So maybe some of the ones who previously attended Ivies now attend schools like NYU, Boston U, & U of Maryland.

Stats at NYU or Boston U are not significantly lower because seat at elite level are limited and ton of similar stat kids already drop down a tier.

[Anonymous]

No one believes NYU and BU are getting spillovers from the Ivies.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:No one believes NYU and BU are getting spillovers from the Ivies.

You think they go to UVA, UNC, UCSD, UFlorida?? LOL