I think we’re severely undercounting billionaires

[Anonymous]

In 2012 there were officially ~425 US billionaires, in 2025 there are officially around ~850. In this time the S&P 500 has done a 5-6x including dividend reinvestment.

So, either most people with 100-250M a decade ago are terrible at investing, or we just aren’t counting billionaires properly. I know someone who is the child of a billionaire and nothing comes up when searching their name.

I think the real number of billionaires in the US is at least 5000 maybe 10,000

[Anonymous]

yeah, you are probably right.

[Anonymous]

I certainly hope that one day my family will be undercounted in that category.

[Anonymous]

Most people are considered billionaires because of the equity in their own company. Just because the S&P 500 has done 5 to 6x doesn't mean that each individual company has done that. In fact, most of the gains are by the top few tech companies.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:In 2012 there were officially ~425 US billionaires, in 2025 there are officially around ~850. In this time the S&P 500 has done a 5-6x including dividend reinvestment.

So, either most people with 100-250M a decade ago are terrible at investing, or we just aren’t counting billionaires properly. I know someone who is the child of a billionaire and nothing comes up when searching their name.

I think the real number of billionaires in the US is at least 5000 maybe 10,000

Well, clearly their money wasn't invested in S&P 500. Why don't you look up where their money is and why they cannot move it easily.
I'd say those people already borrow against the money instead of looking to invest it in Voo or growth stocks.
Why isn't Musk's Net Worth a trillion yet? He knew all about Bitcoin long ago. He has all the insider information when it comes to his own stock and many others like Nvidia. Cannot move such huge amount without consequences.
What causes you to think so black and white, OP?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I certainly hope that one day my family will be undercounted in that category.

I don't.

Billionaires = sociopaths, zero exceptions. Every single billionaire is a person who could have helped millions upon millions of people while not reducing their own quality of life at all yet chose not to because the number in their bank account is more important than real people's lives. There is virtually nothing you can do with a billion but can't with hundreds of millions so the only reason for the excess is greed so extreme it should be classified as severe mental illness.

I don't begrudge people for being ultra wealthy. If you want a superyacht and a private jet and need tens or even hundreds of millions to do it then great, but if you reach the point where additional money does absolutely nothing and keep going you have something so wrong with you that you don't deserve to be a part of society. If you aspire to be a billionaire you're scum, end of story.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:In 2012 there were officially ~425 US billionaires, in 2025 there are officially around ~850. In this time the S&P 500 has done a 5-6x including dividend reinvestment.

So, either most people with 100-250M a decade ago are terrible at investing, or we just aren’t counting billionaires properly. I know someone who is the child of a billionaire and nothing comes up when searching their name.

I think the real number of billionaires in the US is at least 5000 maybe 10,000

Well, clearly their money wasn't invested in S&P 500. Why don't you look up where their money is and why they cannot move it easily.
I'd say those people already borrow against the money instead of looking to invest it in Voo or growth stocks.
Why isn't Musk's Net Worth a trillion yet? He knew all about Bitcoin long ago. He has all the insider information when it comes to his own stock and many others like Nvidia. Cannot move such huge amount without consequences.
What causes you to think so black and white, OP?

Most hundred millionaires and billionaires are heavily invested in the stock of the company they founded. They don't liquidate the $250MM they own of their own stock (which would likely mean giving up control of the company), and then think to buy index funds. That's not how they are wired.

Also, many hundred millionaires own stakes in private companies and real estate. Again, they don't think to sell their private holdings and then just invest in index funds.

The exceptions are of course the billionaire hedge fund and PE folks. Their business is basically investing, though they have peverse incentives. They are incented to make strange investments that may underperform the S&P, but in certain instances dramatically outperform the S&P. If all they did was match S&P returns, then their LPs would pull their $$$s because why pay hefty fees just to match S&P performance.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I certainly hope that one day my family will be undercounted in that category.

I don't.

Billionaires = sociopaths, zero exceptions. Every single billionaire is a person who could have helped millions upon millions of people while not reducing their own quality of life at all yet chose not to because the number in their bank account is more important than real people's lives. There is virtually nothing you can do with a billion but can't with hundreds of millions so the only reason for the excess is greed so extreme it should be classified as severe mental illness.

I don't begrudge people for being ultra wealthy. If you want a superyacht and a private jet and need tens or even hundreds of millions to do it then great, but if you reach the point where additional money does absolutely nothing and keep going you have something so wrong with you that you don't deserve to be a part of society. If you aspire to be a billionaire you're scum, end of story.

Yvon Choinard, the founder of Patagonia, is an exception. He hates that he is a billionaire and is trying hard not to be: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/14/climate/patagonia-climate-philanthropy-chouinard.html

[Anonymous]

You underestimate how nuts some people can be and how much of their wealth is usually concentrated in their own stock.

Think of the Enron folks who were worth billions on paper, but never sold their stock even though in theory they knew it was all hot air. Their fortunes essentially evaporated.

Think of the Theranos founder. The company did a secondary where Elizabeth Holmes could have cashed out over $100MM at the time...but she never did. She was worth $3BN at one time.

[Anonymous]

Yes, you are right. I know a billionaire family that has evaded any public list.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Yes, you are right. I know a billionaire family that has evaded any public list.

Well...there are tons of criminal billionaires that will never show on any list. Vladimir Putin, all the Cartel bosses, etc.

[Anonymous]

The billionaire lists are based on available information only so they definitely undercount. I know a billionaire who made his riches in private equity. He's not on any lists. His net worth is supposedly around $1.3 billion.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I certainly hope that one day my family will be undercounted in that category.

I don't.

Billionaires = sociopaths, zero exceptions. Every single billionaire is a person who could have helped millions upon millions of people while not reducing their own quality of life at all yet chose not to because the number in their bank account is more important than real people's lives. There is virtually nothing you can do with a billion but can't with hundreds of millions so the only reason for the excess is greed so extreme it should be classified as severe mental illness.

I don't begrudge people for being ultra wealthy. If you want a superyacht and a private jet and need tens or even hundreds of millions to do it then great, but if you reach the point where additional money does absolutely nothing and keep going you have something so wrong with you that you don't deserve to be a part of society. If you aspire to be a billionaire you're scum, end of story.

PP you replied to. That's some projecting you're doing. All our wealth is in our stock portfolio comprised of the top S&P500 - how do you think other people become billionaires? You can't get there with salaries. DH and I have very mundane jobs, and we live a frugal life. I calculate that if we bequeath this stock portfolio to our kids, they might be billionaires one day. And yes, it can all evaporate in an Act of God or WWIII. That's fine too. They will have mundane jobs to see them through.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The billionaire lists are based on available information only so they definitely undercount. I know a billionaire who made his riches in private equity. He's not on any lists. His net worth is supposedly around $1.3 billion.

Similar. We know a bunch not on any lists, many of them in the DC area at least seasonally.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I certainly hope that one day my family will be undercounted in that category.

I don't.

Billionaires = sociopaths, zero exceptions. Every single billionaire is a person who could have helped millions upon millions of people while not reducing their own quality of life at all yet chose not to because the number in their bank account is more important than real people's lives. There is virtually nothing you can do with a billion but can't with hundreds of millions so the only reason for the excess is greed so extreme it should be classified as severe mental illness.

I don't begrudge people for being ultra wealthy. If you want a superyacht and a private jet and need tens or even hundreds of millions to do it then great, but if you reach the point where additional money does absolutely nothing and keep going you have something so wrong with you that you don't deserve to be a part of society. If you aspire to be a billionaire you're scum, end of story.

Yvon Choinard, the founder of Patagonia, is an exception. He hates that he is a billionaire and is trying hard not to be: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/14/climate/patagonia-climate-philanthropy-chouinard.html

This is peak coastal elite progressivism - dude is a billionaire and still found a way to define himself as oppressed