EV Market After 9/30 - Lease and Purchase

[Anonymous]

(My comments below omit the EV-exclusive manufacturers.)

It appears that the expiring credit is pulling forward a great many of consumers, whether purchasers or leasers, who are open to EVs.

After 9/30, I presume the demand for new EVs will drop off severely.

One possibility: The supply will be correspondingly exhausted and the market will operate as a niche but in equilibrium.

A second possibility: The lingering supply will be met with a greatly diminished demand, thereby creating a buyers’ market.

Is there a third?

What’s the most likely status of the post 9/30 EV market?

[jsteele]

When Germany dropped its incentives, there was a brief drop in EV sales. Then sales increased and are doing well.

I expect an immediate drop off in October and then sales to begin increasing, though at a slower rate then they would have otherwise and probably slower than the sales increase in Germany.

Factors that I think will lead to EVs still being somewhat popular:

1) the spread of charging. The number of charging stations has massively increased in the the past year and is scheduled to do even more in the next year. This greatly decreases one of the concerns with EV ownership. Also, each charging station is an advertisement as people notice new stations and become curious about EVs.

2) the improved models coming out. New models have great range and charge quickly. This decreases the the main concerns about EV ownership.

3) the snowball effect. As the number of EV owners increases, the number of people explaining to others how much they like their EV also increases. Moreover, there is now a robust used EV market. For some, those were second cars that they bought cheaply. Many will enjoy the EV experience enough to buy a second EV, even if it is not as great a deal.

4) two emerging awarenesses that will have some positive impact on sales. The ability to charge at home is really the "killer app" of EVs. Especially for homes with solar, in which case it is a no brainer. During a recent trip to a very rural area, I encountered an EV owner who was telling everyone he knew about his combination of solar and two EVs that meant he essentially paid nothing drive. At one time, range would have been a concern for such folks, but not with the newer cars. The second is increased awareness that most new models can not only charge from your home, but provide back-up electricity to your home if the grid goes down. In areas with frequent blackouts, this is a strong selling point.