Why is the stock market doing well?

[Anonymous]

I do NOT want this to be political.
At the moment we have economic uncertainty, inflation and there's talk of forcing the fed chair out so interest rates can be lowered, whether that's good for the economy or not.
I thought in times of economic uncertainty, investors were fearful and that fear caused markets to go down.
This looks like irrational exuberance.
I'm not very smart, can you explain to me why stocks are still doing well and why I should keep my investments in them?

Thanks.

[Anonymous]

The stock market is forward looking by about 6 months. It is not responding to current conditions. It is responding to the expectation that there will be an interest rate cut that reduced corporate debt and frees up more money to go into the stock market, combined with lower corporate taxes that were just made permanent. Also, AI will replay a lot of labor which will drive down corporate expenses significantly (human labor is the highest cost in many cases). These things will drive up profits for owners and shareholders. They will not benefit consumers or workers.

[Anonymous]

^reduces

[Anonymous]

^replace

[Anonymous]

You frequently see this dissociation where the market picks up steam while economic indicators are still trending down--this is because the market is anticipating a market-boosting regulatory response to the brewing downturn.

[Anonymous]

Because it's all speculative. It's what investors want to think will happen (everything will be great).

[Anonymous]

People go on vacation in August and don't look at their portfolios.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:People go on vacation in August and don't look at their portfolios.

You can’t open your phone for 10 seconds to check on it while on vacation?

To the OP I think it’s mostly the AI bubble. Almost all the gains in US stocks have been from mag7 companies. Nvidia is making tons of money from the other mag7’s buying its GPU’s, however this might not be sustainable in the long term because the biggest customers to NVDA haven’t been profiting at all from their AI investments. Their customers do make a healthy profit from their other ventures which allows them to stay in the green, concealing the massive drain that AI has been on their profits. If the software AI bubble pops then hardware will follow, and this would collapse the US stock market

[Anonymous]

Always does well before a major crash.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People go on vacation in August and don't look at their portfolios.

You can’t open your phone for 10 seconds to check on it while on vacation?

To the OP I think it’s mostly the AI bubble. Almost all the gains in US stocks have been from mag7 companies. Nvidia is making tons of money from the other mag7’s buying its GPU’s, however this might not be sustainable in the long term because the biggest customers to NVDA haven’t been profiting at all from their AI investments. Their customers do make a healthy profit from their other ventures which allows them to stay in the green, concealing the massive drain that AI has been on their profits. If the software AI bubble pops then hardware will follow, and this would collapse the US stock market

Another indication we’re in a bubble is the ridiculous amount of money being thrown at AI researchers. A 24 year old was just offered $250M to work at Meta. OpenAI is paying a $1.5M bonus to every single one of its employees (a few thousand people). It’s a complete frenzy at this point. We’re building a bridge to nowhere

[Anonymous]

Stagflation results in the increase value of hard assets (real estate and stocks) while purchasing power decreases for wages.

[Anonymous]

When the stock market crashed in 2008 there was a 3 year build up.

Biden left the US with a string economy.

It won’t crumble overnight.

Most tariffs were pulled back due to stock market unsteadiness.

Trump will put a loyalist at the reserve and all he(( will break loose.

[Anonymous]

When the stock market crashed in 1929, it had been going up for more than 4 years. You are at 1925 in the stock market.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I do NOT want this to be political.
At the moment we have economic uncertainty, inflation and there's talk of forcing the fed chair out so interest rates can be lowered, whether that's good for the economy or not.
I thought in times of economic uncertainty, investors were fearful and that fear caused markets to go down.
This looks like irrational exuberance.
I'm not very smart, can you explain to me why stocks are still doing well and why I should keep my investments in them?

Thanks.

The stock market as a whole is a huge Ponzi Scheme.
The more people invest, the more it goes up and everyone makes money, some more than others.
So since people are making more money, they invest more, and it goes up more.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:When the stock market crashed in 1929, it had been going up for more than 4 years. You are at 1925 in the stock market.

Hasn’t the market been going up since 2023? 2022 was a down year