PK4 wait list math

[Anonymous]

#Math! An unanswerable question for the hive mind:

If an OOB kid is currently in the teens on the wait lists of half a dozen PK4 cohorts in upper NW at this point... and 5 of those 6 schools have made more total PK4 offers in each of the past 2-3 years than the original lottery day wait list rank - what are the odds that they might rise to the top of even ONE of these lists by the time school starts, or shortly thereafter? Decent? Or not so much?

(obviously this is a DOGE-warped life decisions year for local families...overall wait lists are longer, more people seem to be registering in-bounds over the summer, etc...so who knows what that does to the final results [shrug]...
I guess I've just riding the lottery roller coaster for too long this year and am looking for guesses as whether it makes sense to hold on a while longer or just mentally hop off this ride...)

[Anonymous]

Are you in bounds for any of the schools? Also depends on your number.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Are you in bounds for any of the schools? Also depends on your number.

OP here: no, we're nearby but out of bounds (OOB) for all... so the situation is - for example - my kid's results day rank was #15 at one of the schools. That school made 30+ PK4 WL offers by Oct. 1 last year. (Multiply that by 6 schools with similar numbers. The exact number of offers varies based on year, and school, but nearly all of the schools on our list have made more offers in multiple recent years than our results day WL rank at that school.)

After months of the rank number these schools going up and down as people move into and out of the district, pull their names from the wait list, etc, most of them have made fewer than half a dozen offers as of June 1 (still the most recent data available.) I'm guessing most of the offer action takes place as the actual first day of school gets closer? But maybe I'm just as deluded about our chances here as people who play the ACTUAL lottery are about those odds of success....

Maybe I need tough love! Or maybe not! I'm just not sure I can take another month - let alone two - of this without some sense from savvier and more experienced parents of whether an offer is a thing that is fairly likely (though not guaranteed) to happen, or fairly unlikely (though not impossible)...So I'm venting here. Thanks for humoring me.

(Yes, we have a "safety school." We could handle another year there, maybe two max. Definitely not a long-term fix)

[Anonymous]

Unless I’m misunderstanding, aren’t your chances phenomenal? Like, above 90%?

You’re saying that for school A, for example, your original waitlist number was 15, and in the past three years, they have taken 16, 19, and 17 kids, respectively, off the waitlist? In that case, your chances of being offered a seat, absent any other information, is excellent.

And you’ve got the same situation at five schools? That feels like a near guarantee. What am I missing here?

The only other variable is the June waitlist numbers. If the last few years they had all run through a bunch of the waitlist in June, and this year none of them offered any spots by June, than that does imply that something is different this year.

Also if your number has gone up extensively (not 15 to 16 or 17 or something, but 15 to like, 30) then that implies a LOT of post-lottery applications or late breaking sibling preferences and that would also change the math.

[Anonymous]

I actually don't know of any upper NW schools that make PK4 offers OB. Some of these schools don't even accept everyone IB and the PK classes are mostly younger siblings.

K, yes. plenty.


I would not count on it this year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I actually don't know of any upper NW schools that make PK4 offers OB. Some of these schools don't even accept everyone IB and the PK classes are mostly younger siblings.

K, yes. plenty.


I would not count on it this year.

"Upper NW" does not mean just Ward 3, you idiot.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I actually don't know of any upper NW schools that make PK4 offers OB. Some of these schools don't even accept everyone IB and the PK classes are mostly younger siblings.

K, yes. plenty.


I would not count on it this year.

I got into my upper NW school through PK4 OOB lottery last year. I actually got into multiple schools (Key, Hearst, Murch, & Mann) and got my overall #1 pick.

It’s possible OP! I will say, movement started for me in May last year through the week before school. Keep in mind you have until October so like a PP said, it looks like you may have at least one option. Good luck!

Also, it seems more unlikely to lottery in K based on numbers I looked at.

[Anonymous]

related: looks like August wait list numbers just dropped!
https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay

[Anonymous]

What are you prattling on about boomer?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What are you prattling on about boomer?

sir this is an Arby's

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I actually don't know of any upper NW schools that make PK4 offers OB. Some of these schools don't even accept everyone IB and the PK classes are mostly younger siblings.

K, yes. plenty.


I would not count on it this year.

I got into my upper NW school through PK4 OOB lottery last year. I actually got into multiple schools (Key, Hearst, Murch, & Mann) and got my overall #1 pick.

It’s possible OP! I will say, movement started for me in May last year through the week before school. Keep in mind you have until October so like a PP said, it looks like you may have at least one option. Good luck!

Also, it seems more unlikely to lottery in K based on numbers I looked at.

Thanks! I will take deep breaths and hope for the best, but not expect it. Ha
(we already got the dream lottery offer of a lifetime on a results day, but had to turn down for logistical reasons...we'd put it last on our list to pad it out to the full dozen even though it's one of the best, if not THE best, in the city - added it almost as an afterthought - because we never thought we'd get it but liked to imagine a world where we could. And then we did. Turning it down was almost painful, hopefully we gave some other family their dream school...but I guess that's why I'm overthinking the WL situation now)

[Anonymous]

WTF does doge have to do with pk? I can’t with this nonsense.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Are you in bounds for any of the schools? Also depends on your number.

Both of those details were in the OP.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:WTF does doge have to do with pk? I can’t with this nonsense.

Because when people get fired sometimes they leave town? How is that not obvious?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Unless I’m misunderstanding, aren’t your chances phenomenal? Like, above 90%?

You’re saying that for school A, for example, your original waitlist number was 15, and in the past three years, they have taken 16, 19, and 17 kids, respectively, off the waitlist? In that case, your chances of being offered a seat, absent any other information, is excellent.

And you’ve got the same situation at five schools? That feels like a near guarantee. What am I missing here?

The only other variable is the June waitlist numbers. If the last few years they had all run through a bunch of the waitlist in June, and this year none of them offered any spots by June, than that does imply that something is different this year.

Also if your number has gone up extensively (not 15 to 16 or 17 or something, but 15 to like, 30) then that implies a LOT of post-lottery applications or late breaking sibling preferences and that would also change the math.

I think with uncertainty about federal employment, this year may not be like the others. Some schools may have more people withdraw as their families leave DC; others might have more IB students enrolling as their parents choose not to pay for private school. I still think the odds are decent, but if your number is going up instead of down, the chances at that particular school might not be as good as past stats would have you believe.