Reply to PK4 wait list math

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Unless I’m misunderstanding, aren’t your chances phenomenal? Like, above 90%?

You’re saying that for school A, for example, your original waitlist number was 15, and in the past three years, they have taken 16, 19, and 17 kids, respectively, off the waitlist? In that case, your chances of being offered a seat, absent any other information, is excellent.

And you’ve got the same situation at five schools? That feels like a near guarantee. What am I missing here?

The only other variable is the June waitlist numbers. If the last few years they had all run through a bunch of the waitlist in June, and this year none of them offered any spots by June, than that does imply that something is different this year.

Also if your number has gone up extensively (not 15 to 16 or 17 or something, but 15 to like, 30) then that implies a LOT of post-lottery applications or late breaking sibling preferences and that would also change the math. [/quote]

I think with uncertainty about federal employment, this year may not be like the others. Some schools may have more people withdraw as their families leave DC; others might have more IB students enrolling as their parents choose not to pay for private school. I still think the odds are decent, but if your number is going up instead of down, the chances at that particular school might not be as good as past stats would have you believe.[/quote]

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