So we are just forgetting Fridays BLS Drama?
![[Post New]](/jforum/templates/default/images/icon_minipost_new.gif){kind=icon}
Anonymous
| The market has recovered 100%, I assume because they expect a rate cute — which may have been reasonable in normal times. But all the other things going on with JP and head stratification, it just shrugs off?? |
Anonymous
| The market is irrational at least in the short term. At best it is helpful longterm/retrospect. |
Anonymous
|
DT is counting on it
|
Anonymous
| The poor jobs' report helps Powell make the decision to reduce the rates. Stock market is weird. Businesses are saying that they are replacing laborers with AI. That's good for a business bottomline . I don't think we will see a real pullback until business start reporting in Q4 and 2026 Q1 that consumer spending is down and people are defaulting on credit cards and mortgages. |
Anonymous
| Money has short memories |
Anonymous
| Nah, we’re just refocused on tech earnings for today and Tuesday. On Thursday we get more jobs data. Next week we get a CPI update. Markets likely sell off into that news. |
Anonymous
| I’m not. But the market is giving him the benefit of the doubt for now. There will be a tipping point where that runs out and the dumping of Treasuries begins. |
Anonymous
| Read the WSJ article about this. It’s going to be more nuanced, but it will be big. |
Anonymous
Link? |
Anonymous
| More tariff threats, more Fed pressure, more irresponsible firing of government leaders, more bad jobs and inflation data, bad seasonals. Yeah, I think the market is in for a pause. |
Anonymous
|
Stephen Colbert Chides Trump for Firing the Messenger (Again)
“When he heard about this employment crisis, Trump sprang into action and fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. No! No, you fool! Now there’s one less job! Don’t you see? You fell into her trap.” — STEPHEN COLBERT “Trump said that he’ll announce a new commissioner in the next few days. So far, the front-runner is Sydney Sweeney, but we’ll see where we land.” — JIMMY FALLON |
Anonymous
|
The economic chaos will continue x10 if Trump kicks out the Fed chair. The adults have completely left the White House.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/08/05/us/trump-news Fed moves: President Trump said he has a four-person shortlist of possible replacements for Jerome H. Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve, and that he would reveal his choice “soon.” But he ruled out picking Scott Bessent after the Treasury secretary said he did not want the job. |
Anonymous
This nominee is for the open position on the board. Powell's term as chairman ends in May next year. This nominee may or may not eventually be nominated to be the chair or for another 14 year term. |
Anonymous
The current empty spot has a term expiration in January 2026. They would then need to get re-nominated and re-confirmed again for the full 14-year term after January 2026. My prediction is that Trump leaves that spot open. The Senate will not want waste floor team approving someone who has to be renominated in 3-4 months' time. Separately, JP's term as Fed Chair expires in May 2026. He will still have another 19 months left on his term as a Fed Governor. If Trump picks an existing Fed Governor to be the Chair, that person would need to go through another nomination and confirmation process starting in June 2026 for that four-year term. Just changing the Fed Chair won't be enough to change the path of interest rates. The FOMC membership rotates and the St. Louis and Richmond Reserve Banks are known for maintaining a tradition of "hawkish" positions, along with Dallas (but to a lesser extent). Minneapolis Reserve Bank is considered to be among the most dovish that would potentially align with Trump on cutting rates early. In 2026, the rotating FOMC members will be Cleveland, Philadelphia, Dallas, and Minneapolis - the hawks are shut out. |
Anonymous
Any tipping point re employment would cause the buying of Treasuries, not dumping. |