Anyone have a sense on the timeline?
It seems pretty much a slam dunk that the courts will rule against the tariffs and the sham national emergencies, at which point stocks should skyrocket. |
Long story short: a while
Long Story: The lawsuits filed by individual companies are all slowly being punted by Federal Judges to the Court of International Trade which is in NYC. That court just heard arguments this week from a suit filed by a dozen states making the same argument. IMO its ultimately its going to take a Supreme Court ruling to clarify the legality of these tariffs. Best case would be a ruling in a few weeks form the Court of International Trade which would then be appealed to a Federal Appeals Court. When/if the Supreme Court considers it? I wouldn't bet on it happening quickly. |
So...Fall of 2025? I have to believe even at least 7 of the supreme court justices will throw out the tariffs as the "national emergency" basis is such complete and utter nonsense. |
That's being very optimistic. I would bet on trade agreements replacing all the tariffs over the supreme court ruling an in effect tariff as unconstitutional. |
I know so many countries lining up to negotiate. 🤔 |
You wouldn't know these countries, they went to school in Canada. But they definitely exist. |
Again…are you saying based on the timing? This administration has tons of things getting overturned that are “in effect” because they aren’t congressionally authorized. Tariffs seems to have the worst legal foundation as it’s the president just unilaterally implementing a tax under completely fake national emergency arguments like a trade deficit. |
Months, maybe years. Litigation takes forever, especially when one side goes hardcore on delay tactics because they know they're going to lose in the end and want to keep their unlawful policies going for as long as they can. |
What are the chances that T will attack those judges or has he already? |
This. 2026 at some point at best. And do not be so sure the way the courts will go. The President has a lot of power in this area. I doubt they will be overturned -- at least all will not be overturned. |
PP, surprised at both and speed broadness of today's rulling. Still think the Supreme Court eventually weighs in. |
Agreed, SCOTUS will block the injunction. Clarence has his opinion ready "in 1352, the King of England levied the first tariff, solidifying that regnal right for time immemorial...." But until then, good to see someone actually at least look at the Constitution. |
This post didn’t age well |
Stock market should be up tomorrow. |
It was down this evening because markets don't like it when they don't know who is in charge. And this ruling constitutes a HUGE blow to Trump himself, who ran on and pushed for tariffs personally. Evidently this case will go to the Supreme Court, and I'm sure some tariffs will end up sticking. So be careful trading, PP. It's going to zig-zag some more. |