Treasuries and stocks heading down in tandem

[Anonymous]

Unusual--major red flag. BOJ bonds and treasuries getting crushed. Yields jumping as market realizes deficit gig is up. Interest payments now surpass entire defense budget!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Unusual--major red flag. BOJ bonds and treasuries getting crushed. Yields jumping as market realizes deficit gig is up. Interest payments now surpass entire defense budget!

No yields are jumping because BBB is making progress to cut taxes even more, combined with hit to GDP from tariffs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Unusual--major red flag. BOJ bonds and treasuries getting crushed. Yields jumping as market realizes deficit gig is up. Interest payments now surpass entire defense budget!

No yields are jumping because BBB is making progress to cut taxes even more, combined with hit to GDP from tariffs.

Yes, and the future lack of tax revenue is freaking out the market about viability of US debt. So yields go up. Same thing that happened to the UK during the disastrous Liz Truss 2022 "mini-budget" and led to her resigning a few weeks later. We just didn't think that sort of thing would happen here because the US economy/bond market is so much bigger and the dollar so much more important globally. Well, nothing lasts forever! The American Century was fun everyone.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_United_Kingdom_mini-budget

[Anonymous]

Global crash ahead. US is bankrupt, fitting that a "businessman" with multiple bankruptcies is taking US to a "big beautiful default".

[Anonymous]

Vultures are circling

[Anonymous]

We are heading towards a calamity unless Congress starts doing its job, which is extremely unlikely. At this point, the only way to avoid a yield-debt spiral (in which yields rise as debt rises, making service more and more unaffordable, eventually driving the country to insolvency) is massive austerity. This means tax increases across the board plus entitlement reform, which will deepen the current recession but prevent total fiscal and monetary collapse. Note that the current bill does the opposite. So, what will happen over the coming months and years? Yields will continue to climb, driving up borrowing costs and depressing economic activity. Note this is on top of the tariffs. Each 90 days, more debt will be issued at ever higher rates to pay for debt service, driving yields ever higher. At some point, the Treasury will start to print money (rather than enact austerity.) This will trigger both double-digit inflation and much higher yields--think 20%+. The Fed will no longer have any influence over rates. Existing debt holders will make out like bandits as the real value of their principal falls. However, the savings of pretty much every retiree and future retiree will be wiped out. We will enter a depression that only true leadership will get us out of. This is all a very real scenario, folks. Just because it hasn't happened here for eighty years doesn't mean it won't. There's nothing magical about the United States, certainly with our government no longer functioning in any real way.

[Anonymous]

Humans are selfish by nature. He is a billionaire and those around him are billionaires or millionaires. These people are going to ensure that whatever happens their offsprings are going to be fine.

Unfortunately a lot of Americans for bizarre reasons don't understand this. They worship these people thinking that they are looking after them.

It's sad...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We are heading towards a calamity unless Congress starts doing its job, which is extremely unlikely. At this point, the only way to avoid a yield-debt spiral (in which yields rise as debt rises, making service more and more unaffordable, eventually driving the country to insolvency) is massive austerity. This means tax increases across the board plus entitlement reform, which will deepen the current recession but prevent total fiscal and monetary collapse. Note that the current bill does the opposite. So, what will happen over the coming months and years? Yields will continue to climb, driving up borrowing costs and depressing economic activity. Note this is on top of the tariffs. Each 90 days, more debt will be issued at ever higher rates to pay for debt service, driving yields ever higher. At some point, the Treasury will start to print money (rather than enact austerity.) This will trigger both double-digit inflation and much higher yields--think 20%+. The Fed will no longer have any influence over rates. Existing debt holders will make out like bandits as the real value of their principal falls. However, the savings of pretty much every retiree and future retiree will be wiped out. We will enter a depression that only true leadership will get us out of. This is all a very real scenario, folks. Just because it hasn't happened here for eighty years doesn't mean it won't. There's nothing magical about the United States, certainly with our government no longer functioning in any real way.

+1. This. This is something that we haven’t experienced in the USA. But it has happened to the banana republics. We will be like Zimbabwe.

[Anonymous]

Fannie and Freddie IPO will save the day!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Fannie and Freddie IPO will save the day!

You can’t change the net worth of the sovereign by selling off public assets. It is all priced in.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Fannie and Freddie IPO will save the day!

You can’t change the net worth of the sovereign by selling off public assets. It is all priced in.

You are too smart for this forum.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We are heading towards a calamity unless Congress starts doing its job, which is extremely unlikely. At this point, the only way to avoid a yield-debt spiral (in which yields rise as debt rises, making service more and more unaffordable, eventually driving the country to insolvency) is massive austerity. This means tax increases across the board plus entitlement reform, which will deepen the current recession but prevent total fiscal and monetary collapse. Note that the current bill does the opposite. So, what will happen over the coming months and years? Yields will continue to climb, driving up borrowing costs and depressing economic activity. Note this is on top of the tariffs. Each 90 days, more debt will be issued at ever higher rates to pay for debt service, driving yields ever higher. At some point, the Treasury will start to print money (rather than enact austerity.) This will trigger both double-digit inflation and much higher yields--think 20%+. The Fed will no longer have any influence over rates. Existing debt holders will make out like bandits as the real value of their principal falls. However, the savings of pretty much every retiree and future retiree will be wiped out. We will enter a depression that only true leadership will get us out of. This is all a very real scenario, folks. Just because it hasn't happened here for eighty years doesn't mean it won't. There's nothing magical about the United States, certainly with our government no longer functioning in any real way.

So what changes are you making?
Going 100% bonds?
Have your previous predictions been correct and were you able to capitalize upon them?

[Anonymous]

Everything is fine

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We are heading towards a calamity unless Congress starts doing its job, which is extremely unlikely. At this point, the only way to avoid a yield-debt spiral (in which yields rise as debt rises, making service more and more unaffordable, eventually driving the country to insolvency) is massive austerity. This means tax increases across the board plus entitlement reform, which will deepen the current recession but prevent total fiscal and monetary collapse. Note that the current bill does the opposite. So, what will happen over the coming months and years? Yields will continue to climb, driving up borrowing costs and depressing economic activity. Note this is on top of the tariffs. Each 90 days, more debt will be issued at ever higher rates to pay for debt service, driving yields ever higher. At some point, the Treasury will start to print money (rather than enact austerity.) This will trigger both double-digit inflation and much higher yields--think 20%+. The Fed will no longer have any influence over rates. Existing debt holders will make out like bandits as the real value of their principal falls. However, the savings of pretty much every retiree and future retiree will be wiped out. We will enter a depression that only true leadership will get us out of. This is all a very real scenario, folks. Just because it hasn't happened here for eighty years doesn't mean it won't. There's nothing magical about the United States, certainly with our government no longer functioning in any real way.

You aren’t looking at history.

We are beefing up our “War Department “ budget.

Long before that calamity happens, we are conquering some countries and adding them to our balance sheet and incorporating their GDP into ours, meanwhile I believe we will wipe out their debt since the country that owes it no longer exists? Not sure about that last bit.

[Anonymous]

Bitcoin is up big!