9th grade lottery chances based on SY24-25 outcomes

[Anonymous]

First, the non-selective schools. I filtered to schools with at least 1 offer (matches+offers by October) and less than 100% offered by October.

Percent offered = (matches+offers by October)/(matches+waitlist on results day)

MacArthur - 93% offered
DCI Chinese - 88% offered
Friendship Tech - 70% offered
EL Haynes - 55% offered
EL Haynes Equitable - 53% offered
Sojourner Truth - 48% offered
Cap City - 47% offered
Coolidge - 42% offered
DCI French - 22% offered
Latin Equitable - 14% offered
Latin - 4% offered
MacArthur Equitable - 2%


The selective school outcomes are somewhat trickier to assess as schools only match and waitlist students who make it through an initial assessment. We can look at how many total applicants were ultimately offered a seat, but these numbers are artificially lower than the "percent offered" numbers above due to the possibility of students matching with a different school they ranked higher.

Percent total applicants offered = (matches+offers by October)/(applications on results day)

CHEC - 48%
DESA Museum Studies - 38%
DESA Vocal Music - 38%
Phelps - 28%
DESA Dance - 23%
Bard Early College - 21%
DESA Cinematic Arts - 20%
DESA Instrumental Music - 20%
McKinley - 20%
Banneker - 19%
School Without Walls - 16%
Coolidge Early College - 13%
DESA Visual Arts - 10%
DESA Technical Design - 9%
DESA Theater - 6%

One other interesting tidbit is that there were 3,760 unique lottery applicants for 9th grade. That means 41% of all 9th grade lottery applicants applied to Walls, 34% of all to Banneker, 34% of all to McKinley.

[Anonymous]

Thank you for this. I find that high school talk on DCUM is often lacking in an accurate statistical basis. Adding more facts to the mix (however imperfect they may be) is very helpful to the conversation.

[Anonymous]

When I run these numbers for my DD's chances, I look only at applicants who have no preference. Latin's 9th grade seats often go to those who had a younger sibling match for 5th, for example.

[Anonymous]

MacArthur's last year's numbers are not meaningful for this year. This is the first year Hardy 8th graders don't have the option of J-R. Some Hardy 8th graders will go to selective or private schools, but a lot more will go to MacArthur than last year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:When I run these numbers for my DD's chances, I look only at applicants who have no preference. Latin's 9th grade seats often go to those who had a younger sibling match for 5th, for example.

That's smart. And also consider whether you could wait until September/October for a high school seat. For my family, that was an absolute nonstarter. My kid had a top 1/3 lottery number and we got an offer at MacArthur in mid-July - and had already made other plans by then.