Is there any scenario under which the new tariffs won't be bad?

[Anonymous]

Even if they are walked back in a day or so, the damage is done. But if they aren't? This looks like it is worse than Brexit, with global recessionary implications, since world trade can't survive when a party that represents 25% of world GDP unilaterally declares war.

I hope that there is some agreement that there is no 4D or 11D chess at work here. The tariffs values are just a reflection of deficits in goods trade, which is the stupidest measure. So what's the endgame? Where are we in a year or more?

[Anonymous]

Most economists predict a recession.

[Anonymous]

It is much worse than Brexit and will lead to recession and stagflation.

[Anonymous]

Recession triggers the Fed to lower interest rates. Trump uses tariff money to lower taxes on the wealthy and corporations.

That’s about it.

Amy factories that return are going to be highly automated and would target high priced items. Everything that is a basic necessity (clothing, cheap electronics) is still going to be imported since it is still cheaper to buy overseas than make here.

[Anonymous]

The Fed can’t cut rates with high inflation. So not that simple

[Anonymous]

We’ll probably see another 1980s stagflation for the next decade in the best case scenario. In the worst, Trump gets angry, we lose access to goods, and we don’t bring cut social services back, and we’re in the gilded ages.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Recession triggers the Fed to lower interest rates. Trump uses tariff money to lower taxes on the wealthy and corporations.

That’s about it.

Amy factories that return are going to be highly automated and would target high priced items. Everything that is a basic necessity (clothing, cheap electronics) is still going to be imported since it is still cheaper to buy overseas than make here.

Going by what the Senate is planning, taxes are going to be lower in matter what. So the Fed will have no room to cut rates when faced with exploding deficits.

And the extra revenue is not likely to materialize in a recession either

[Anonymous]

I honestly don’t see any point to this, and no endgame. Just a silly, misguided, stubborn old man.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I honestly don’t see any point to this, and no endgame. Just a silly, misguided, stubborn old man.

I truly believe this is revenge on Americans. Narcissists seek revenge when they don't receive the high praise they feel they deserve. I think he knows he's destroying our country and he doesn't care.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I honestly don’t see any point to this, and no endgame. Just a silly, misguided, stubborn old man.

I truly believe this is revenge on Americans. Narcissists seek revenge when they don't receive the high praise they feel they deserve. I think he knows he's destroying our country and he doesn't care.

It all started with an auction he lost in the 80s:

“Donald J. Trump lost an auction in 1988 for a 58-key piano used in the classic film “Casablanca” to a Japanese trading company representing a collector. While he brushed off being outbid, it was a firsthand reminder of Japan’s growing wealth, and the following year, Mr. Trump went on television to call for a 15 percent to 20 percent tax on imports from Japan.

“I believe very strongly in tariffs,” Mr. Trump, at the time a Manhattan real estate developer with fledgling political instincts, told the journalist Diane Sawyer, before criticizing Japan, West Germany, Saudi Arabia and South Korea for their trade practices.“

https://www.wita.org/trade-news/trumps-love-for-tariffs-began-in-japans-80s-boom/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I honestly don’t see any point to this, and no endgame. Just a silly, misguided, stubborn old man.

I truly believe this is revenge on Americans. Narcissists seek revenge when they don't receive the high praise they feel they deserve. I think he knows he's destroying our country and he doesn't care.

+1 He wants to be Midas, but everything he touches turns to shh!t instead.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Even if they are walked back in a day or so, the damage is done. But if they aren't? This looks like it is worse than Brexit, with global recessionary implications, since world trade can't survive when a party that represents 25% of world GDP unilaterally declares war.

I hope that there is some agreement that there is no 4D or 11D chess at work here. The tariffs values are just a reflection of deficits in goods trade, which is the stupidest measure. So what's the endgame? Where are we in a year or more?

there is not a time in mankind where something like this has "worked" - because it doesn't, so the answer to your question is "no"

And the US doesn't recover from this unless or until there is new, stable leadership for a period of time long enough that the global community can once again trust US voters not to do something like this again, which means probably not in the lifetime of anyone reading this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I honestly don’t see any point to this, and no endgame. Just a silly, misguided, stubborn old man.

I truly believe this is revenge on Americans. Narcissists seek revenge when they don't receive the high praise they feel they deserve. I think he knows he's destroying our country and he doesn't care.

+1 He wants to be Midas, but everything he touches turns to shh!t instead.

He's got the Mid ass touch?

[Anonymous]

In this redesigned global economic order with the USA locked out, I have one question that none of the chicken littles will answer:

Who is going to be the economic power that perpetually runs trades deficits to balance global trade accounts? That is a political loser in every other country. I just don’t see it.

[Anonymous]

At least lower consumption will have some environmental benefit.