Do the Dems have an October Suprise

[Anonymous]

as an Ace in the hole? Any predictions?

[Anonymous]

No.

But I don't think the losses are going to be as dire as portrayed in the press. National averages don't count. Individual races do. And while people hate the Congress, they love their congresspeople. So basically the incumbents will still have an advantage, and that will tilt some tight races in their favor.

[Anonymous]

Also if the GOP nominates a crazy in a particular race, that makes the race tighter than it need be. NV-Sen, for example, has gone from "Lean Republican" to "Toss-up" and KY-Sen has gone from "Safe Republican" to "Lean Republican." DE-Sen may do the same thing if Castle loses his race.

If Obama and the Dems are losing over-40 independents they needn't worry.

If they're losing the under-30 vote, Hispanics, or Blacks, then should worry.

Would be interesting to see how much of the Obama coalition will return in 2012. Of course, that depends on the state of the economy at that time ...

[Anonymous]

Holding on by your fingernails is not an October surprise. Intensity will determine the outcome.

[Anonymous]

Dead in the water. They'll lose the House & have a good shot at losing the Senate. After an unprecedented two years of uncontrolled spending & frivolous legislation (much worse than even the bums we threw-out in 2006 & 2008), these guys deserve to lose most of the seats they now have.

The only hope they have is if we see a dramatic increase in jobs this month. Not very likely.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Dead in the water. They'll lose the House & have a good shot at losing the Senate. After an unprecedented two years of uncontrolled spending & frivolous legislation (much worse than even the bums we threw-out in 2006 & 2008), these guys deserve to lose most of the seats they now have.

The only hope they have is if we see a dramatic increase in jobs this month. Not very likely.

Indeed not. I read an article in the WaPo this weekend that due to cutbacks in Defense spending, DC area is going to bleed thousands of jobs over the next few years. Compared to other regions we've been relatively recession-proof, but that's about to change.

[Anonymous]

Here we go:

"Defense cuts could slow D.C. economy for years"

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/10/AR2010091007056.html