Really interesting Washington Post article on Montana Senate race

[Anonymous]

I am from Colorado and found this piece on the Montana senate race between incumbent Jon Tester (D) and Republican challenger Tim Sheehy really interesting:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2024/inside-montana-senate-race/

A few of my friend's from high school wound up in Montana and I've been texting with two of them this morning about the race. The thing that really strikes me is just being reminded of how distinct Western politics are and how voters out West just think about this stuff differently than what you ever hear on the East coast (from Democrats or Republicans). People are very independent and have a lot less party loyalty (one friend reminded me "it's not a sports team -- I don't care about those people"). And a lot of the issues people focus on are things that often get ignored in national politics even though the federal government has a huge influence on them -- land and water rights including as they are applied to Native reservations. Western agriculture is also distinct from what you see in the Midwest or California and cattle ranchers have different perspectives than farmers who raise crops -- their concerns tend to be more focused on land access and rights and less focused on things like immigrant labor which is not as central in cattle farming.

Also one of my friends echoed the comments of both the women interviewed for the piece who talked about reproductive rights. In the same way that I know a lot of conservatives in Colorado who were very in favor of legalizing marijuana, there are politically conservative people out West who are strongly pro-choice because Western conservatism has a strong libertarian streak and tends to be less influenced by evangelical Christianity (there are still lots of Christians but they are less evangelical and not as focused on abortion). I grew up with a lot of people who held the following views (or their parents did) and did not view them as contradictory at all: federal taxes should be greatly reduced or even eliminated, drugs should be legal, and abortion should be legal.

I'll be watching this race pretty closely next week. The Post article doesn't get into the candidates much at all but Jon Tester is historically pretty popular in Montana and usually wins a lot of Republican votes and in particular wins Independents who are a huge contingent there. I have no idea if this will hold true this year in a state that Trump will win handily. It's pretty fascinating.

[Anonymous]

I thought Tester was in real trouble?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I am from Colorado and found this piece on the Montana senate race between incumbent Jon Tester (D) and Republican challenger Tim Sheehy really interesting:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2024/inside-montana-senate-race/

A few of my friend's from high school wound up in Montana and I've been texting with two of them this morning about the race. The thing that really strikes me is just being reminded of how distinct Western politics are and how voters out West just think about this stuff differently than what you ever hear on the East coast (from Democrats or Republicans). People are very independent and have a lot less party loyalty (one friend reminded me "it's not a sports team -- I don't care about those people"). And a lot of the issues people focus on are things that often get ignored in national politics even though the federal government has a huge influence on them -- land and water rights including as they are applied to Native reservations. Western agriculture is also distinct from what you see in the Midwest or California and cattle ranchers have different perspectives than farmers who raise crops -- their concerns tend to be more focused on land access and rights and less focused on things like immigrant labor which is not as central in cattle farming.

Also one of my friends echoed the comments of both the women interviewed for the piece who talked about reproductive rights. In the same way that I know a lot of conservatives in Colorado who were very in favor of legalizing marijuana, there are politically conservative people out West who are strongly pro-choice because Western conservatism has a strong libertarian streak and tends to be less influenced by evangelical Christianity (there are still lots of Christians but they are less evangelical and not as focused on abortion). I grew up with a lot of people who held the following views (or their parents did) and did not view them as contradictory at all: federal taxes should be greatly reduced or even eliminated, drugs should be legal, and abortion should be legal.

I'll be watching this race pretty closely next week. The Post article doesn't get into the candidates much at all but Jon Tester is historically pretty popular in Montana and usually wins a lot of Republican votes and in particular wins Independents who are a huge contingent there. I have no idea if this will hold true this year in a state that Trump will win handily. It's pretty fascinating.

As a Californian who is regularly bemused by how confidently east coast DCUM posters are wrong about western state issues, I completely agree with you. I think Tester has a really good chance of winning, but not for the reasons the east coast might think.

[Anonymous]

I only lived in the west for one semester and know nothing about the politics there (also I live in the Midwest and not the east), but I really do not understand why the GOP cannot field a non-carpetbag candidate.

[Anonymous]

Ironically, the MAGAs who flocked to Montana sadly may outnumber the liberal Californians who have flocked there, and that may push this to the republican carpetbagger.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Ironically, the MAGAs who flocked to Montana sadly may outnumber the liberal Californians who have flocked there, and that may push this to the republican carpetbagger.

Maybe or maybe not. As is often the case with less populated states where the presidential race is not close, Montana is underpolled. It's also hard to poll because of the Native reservation populations which don't respond to polls in high numbers but may be critical in this race. And there is anecdotal evidence that women in Montana will vote based on abortion rights which would cut against Sheehy.

Also the Dems have made a strong effort to turn out Native voters and they don't like Sheehy (for good reason). Whereas Tester is a known quantity who has actually done pretty well by them in the Senate. It might be enough to counteract the MAGAs who rode in with Sheehy. We'll see.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I only lived in the west for one semester and know nothing about the politics there (also I live in the Midwest and not the east), but I really do not understand why the GOP cannot field a non-carpetbag candidate.

The GOP has allowed Trump to spend literally tens of millions of donations to the RNC on Trump’s personal legal bills, so they have a lot less money for downballot candidates. Therefore, the RSCC goes looking for Senate candidates who have enough personal money to run their own Senate races and fund their own PACs without much help from the party. That’s the priority over ties to the state. I think the list of candidates like this from 2020 through now is up to double digits. Rogers, Walker, Hovde, Oz, Brown, Sheehy, McCormick, just off the top of my head.

[Anonymous]

Not going to lie: this is going to be the most interesting Senate race in 2024. Will be a nail biter. Recent changes to voter ID laws in MT will likely end up hurting conservative whites who live out in the sticks and don’t have a current ID.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I only lived in the west for one semester and know nothing about the politics there (also I live in the Midwest and not the east), but I really do not understand why the GOP cannot field a non-carpetbag candidate.

The GOP has allowed Trump to spend literally tens of millions of donations to the RNC on Trump’s personal legal bills, so they have a lot less money for downballot candidates. Therefore, the RSCC goes looking for Senate candidates who have enough personal money to run their own Senate races and fund their own PACs without much help from the party. That’s the priority over ties to the state. I think the list of candidates like this from 2020 through now is up to double digits. Rogers, Walker, Hovde, Oz, Brown, Sheehy, McCormick, just off the top of my head.

Really good point I hadn't put much thought into.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I thought Tester was in real trouble?

All of the reporting I have heard confirms this. Of the close Senate races, this one is most likely to swing R.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I only lived in the west for one semester and know nothing about the politics there (also I live in the Midwest and not the east), but I really do not understand why the GOP cannot field a non-carpetbag candidate.

The GOP has allowed Trump to spend literally tens of millions of donations to the RNC on Trump’s personal legal bills, so they have a lot less money for downballot candidates. Therefore, the RSCC goes looking for Senate candidates who have enough personal money to run their own Senate races and fund their own PACs without much help from the party. That’s the priority over ties to the state. I think the list of candidates like this from 2020 through now is up to double digits. Rogers, Walker, Hovde, Oz, Brown, Sheehy, McCormick, just off the top of my head.

I’m the PP to whom you’re replying and that’s an interesting point. I knew Trump was essentially lining his pockets and depriving the party of money, but hadn’t really put it all together what that meant.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I thought Tester was in real trouble?

All of the reporting I have heard confirms this. Of the close Senate races, this one is most likely to swing R.

Uh no. That will be the WV Senate race, which is pretty much guaranteed to flip R.

Montana is a tough place to poll. There’s a strong anti-outsider sentiment right now coursing through the state because of folks like Sheehy jacking up housing prices.

[Anonymous]

Tester is doomed and it’s not because of new conservative migrants. He’s done because he’s no longer distinguishing himself from a rank dnd file Democrat when folks in Montana value and respect independent and integrity above all else.

[Anonymous]

The Native American vote is 5% of the population of Montana.

Almost every local Montanan has met Tester at one time or another over the years.

He is well liked.

[Anonymous]

I just lived and worked in Montana for 3 months. Montana is in a period of change. Housing is being snapped up by Californians and those from Washington State.

It is very, very difficult for Montana to be able to buy a house.