Predictions easier cycle this year

[Anonymous]

Just heard a segment on the radio that last year was admissions peak difficulty and it is predicted it will be slightly easier this year for students, even at the T-10s. The population applying has also decreased.

[Anonymous]

Surprising - there wasn't a significant decline in the US birthrate until 2009 so I wouldn't think the population applying would go down this cycle.

[Anonymous]

Also international applications increase every year. Unlikely to see a change at the top schools even when the U.S. birth rate decline kicks in.

[Anonymous]

I suspect we might see acceptance rates start to creep back up a little at the most selective schools, not because of any "birth dearth" but because they've now gotten low enough that more kids are (realistically) self-selecting out of the most competitive pools. Fewer kids with impeccable academic credentials but nothing on their applications that's really needle-moving beyond that will throw their hats in the ring when they're staring at a 4% acceptance rate than a 9% one. That doesn't mean acceptance will have become any easier, though, it just means that fewer kids who never were going to get in anyway would have applied.

[Anonymous]

I thought this was peak birth year- 2007 babies.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I thought this was peak birth year- 2007 babies.

its is.

not sure what the OP was listening to.

[Anonymous]

What source?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I thought this was peak birth year- 2007 babies.

Marginal changes in birthrates are not driving the application numbers at selective universities. The coming decline in HS-graduate-aged kids in the U.S. will be a big problem for the community colleges, directional publics, and local/regional privates that already are struggling; it'll be a non-event for any of the schools that posters write about here.

[Anonymous]

The birth rate declined starting in 2008 due to the recession. High school graduation numbers are predicted to peak in 2025 and then steadily decrease.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The birth rate declined starting in 2008 due to the recession. High school graduation numbers are predicted to peak in 2025 and then steadily decrease.

A ~10% total decline from 2025 to 2037. That has meaningful implications for society and for weak colleges but not for strong colleges (or for anyone's chances of admission thereto).

[Anonymous]

I feel like 2024 was a little easier than class of 2023, so maybe 2025 will be a bit easier still.

[Anonymous]

What would really help is students picking good fit schools thoughtfully, instead of applying to 20 reaches.

[Anonymous]

This year should make more sense because of more return to submitting test scores, cards will be on the table about how various schools handled the Supreme Court decision, and the FAFSA situation should be less horrible.

I agree, at some selective schools the app denominator will be reduced as TO goes away. But the students departing will have been unlikelys. There was a girl from our public that applied to Harvard with a 3.5 and sub-1400 SATs and just a lot of ECs. That's the kind of candidate who will be more rational if SAT requirements are enforced.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I suspect we might see acceptance rates start to creep back up a little at the most selective schools, not because of any "birth dearth" but because they've now gotten low enough that more kids are (realistically) self-selecting out of the most competitive pools. Fewer kids with impeccable academic credentials but nothing on their applications that's really needle-moving beyond that will throw their hats in the ring when they're staring at a 4% acceptance rate than a 9% one. That doesn't mean acceptance will have become any easier, though, it just means that fewer kids who never were going to get in anyway would have applied.

Nah. The decline will be because many of them have returned to test required.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What source?

Not PP but,

https://www.forbes.com/sites/annaesakismith/2024/06/20/why-itll-likely-be-easier-getting-into-college-even-the-ivy-league-this-coming-admissions-cycle/